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Ukraine April 2021

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Check your numbers, can it still be Defcon 5 if NATO is about to going to war against Russia in Ukraine?
 
Until Russian/Rebels boots try an offensive to push the line in the western part of the nation or Ukraine tries to actually take Crimea, shouldn't be problematic.

If either or both scenarios happen, that's legitimately a massive problem.
 
AmericanNoise said:
Ukraine tries to actually take Crimea, shouldn't be problematic.
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As long as it remains local, nothing will happen with the larger powers. Ukraine is on its own as far as Crimea goes. The US isn't going to help them get it back beyond sending arms or maybe even "advisors". But "Little Green Men"? Nah.

Can Ukraine take back Crimea militarily and thus push Russia to use nukes to defend it? Again, nah.

AmericanNoise said:
Until Russian/Rebels boots try an offensive to push the line in the western part of the nation
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If that happens, we'll definitely want to take another look. Certainly Russia wants another piece of Ukraine. Would they be mad enough to take it?

With Putin in line to get another two terms......maybe?
 
Haven't been able to find any source on this but if its true it a little bit of a relief for me. While not directly related to Ukraine, the Ike group is one of the most readily available assets to call on if the US was thinking about reacting militarily to the current crisis. Thats not to say it can't pass back north but sending it south when your planning to use it tomorrow would be extremely stupid.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1378093207519641601

Edit: Confirmed: https://news.usni.org/2021/04/02/ei...ring-the-middle-east-after-suez-canal-transit
 
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Russia is probably not going nuclear on Ukraine but probably on NATO, if it is loosing ground or the other way around.
That lies course somewhat in the future now.
But people need some time to prepare, we can't just wait until the nukes are flying.
Making any nuclear threats now, would be stategic mistake by Russia at this point, it also knows it can't deter NATO.
I don't think there is enough reaction time at all to stay on condition green or blue which could leave most people unconcerned.
 
As a native from Russia and how I look at the situation in Ukraine it'll just be like the annexation of Crimea, but a little further west. I don't see anything spiraling out of control at this point, which I hope it wont.
 
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