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Putin Is Dangerous Because the Ukraine War Is Personal

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
Many commentators have been trying to guess Russia’s next move in Ukraine, especially concern the possible use of nuclear weapons. Will Russia detonate one or won’t they?

The problem with most of these is that they have been looking at Putin as a rational, reasonable man.

He’s not.

This doesn’t mean he’s mad or insane or any other cartoon variety the image conjures up.

It means that Putin is not operating the war from the cold, dispassionate position it takes to properly prosecute a war.

The war in Ukraine is personal to him. And that is what makes Putin a very dangerous man.

From the onset, Vladimir Putin has not operated in the manner expected by any rational standard. Russia has constantly defied expectations because Russia has not done what any sane military would have. From the invasion to the operation to throwing chaff into the fire (untrained and/or unprepared conscripts), Russia is behaving as if it is defending St. Petersburg from the advancing Third Reich rather than as the invader trying to capture new territory.

Putin himself has responded as a cornered animal rather than a leader, snarling and swiping in a desperate attempt to keep NATO out of Ukraine. Cue the obligatory nuclear threat that is made every couple of days from either him or his subordinates.

More telling, though, is Putin’s hands-on approach to the war. Reports are that he is micromanaging. This is never a good thing. Generally, a leader gives the army its objectives and then lets the army do its thing. But when politicians start to get involved, things go bad. And the more they get involved, the worse it gets. Just look at the Korean and Vietnam wars and see what results from when politicians butt in.

But this micromanaging also means that the war is a reflection on him. These are his victories as well as his failures.

We also have to look at the build-up to this war.

Putin has been an adversary to the West and NATO for a long time. He sees Western encroachment as a threat. That NATO plans to swallow up Russia and reduce it to a second-rate nation under the thumb of the United States. Some of this comes from his upbringing. And some of this comes from Russian DNA which is encoded to fear invasion. (Getting invaded multiple times will do that to a country.)

This is what made Putin who he is and is what is driving his actions.

So Putin sees the West not only coming for his beloved country and empire, but for himself.

Couple this with the fact that Putin’s legacy is on the line here. This is his war. No one in his cabinet came to him one day and said, “Let’s capture Ukraine.” This was his idea. This is his baby. He has put everything into it. He has wrapped his country’s economy into it, thousands of lives, and drafted hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens on the mantle of his war. He had better produce or it has been a waste. And then what will happen to him?

History, as they say, is written by the winners.

All this combines to make Vladimir Putin a very dangerous man. Because his stake in this war is personal. There is only one balance sheet that he is consulting: his. And he needs to come out ahead.

So make no mistake about it. There is no cost so high that Putin will not pay. No number of lives that can’t be sacrificed. No risk too great. Because the alternative is too bleak for him to contemplate.

Fortunately, Putin not insane. Otherwise he would have used a nuke right from the outset. He can still weigh the cost and benefit of actions.

He still holds out hope that he can pull a victory out of this. That Ukraine can be ground out through attrition. After all, Russia has more people than Ukraine.

But there is a line in the sand. There is a point where Putin will take the next step. He’s already said it.

“Why would we want a world without Russia?”

Of course, no one is looking to eliminate Russia. But that isn’t how Vladimir Putin sees it.

He will do what it takes to protect himself.

It’s not a question of if he will or will not use a nuclear weapon in the war in Ukraine. He will.

The question is: What will be the cause for him to use it?

The United States has been publicly ambiguous as to what it would do in response to a nuclear strike by Russia. However, some U.S. officials have stated that President Biden favours a non-nuclear response.

So now Russia knows the cost. Now Putin knows exactly where the line is.
 
Many commentators have been trying to guess Russia’s next move in Ukraine, especially concern the possible use of nuclear weapons. Will Russia detonate one or won’t they?

The problem with most of these is that they have been looking at Putin as a rational, reasonable man.

He’s not.

This doesn’t mean he’s mad or insane or any other cartoon variety the image conjures up.

It means that Putin is not operating the war from the cold, dispassionate position it takes to properly prosecute a war.

The war in Ukraine is personal to him. And that is what makes Putin a very dangerous man.

From the onset, Vladimir Putin has not operated in the manner expected by any rational standard. Russia has constantly defied expectations because Russia has not done what any sane military would have. From the invasion to the operation to throwing chaff into the fire (untrained and/or unprepared conscripts), Russia is behaving as if it is defending St. Petersburg from the advancing Third Reich rather than as the invader trying to capture new territory.

Putin himself has responded as a cornered animal rather than a leader, snarling and swiping in a desperate attempt to keep NATO out of Ukraine. Cue the obligatory nuclear threat that is made every couple of days from either him or his subordinates.

More telling, though, is Putin’s hands-on approach to the war. Reports are that he is micromanaging. This is never a good thing. Generally, a leader gives the army its objectives and then lets the army do its thing. But when politicians start to get involved, things go bad. And the more they get involved, the worse it gets. Just look at the Korean and Vietnam wars and see what results from when politicians butt in.

But this micromanaging also means that the war is a reflection on him. These are his victories as well as his failures.

We also have to look at the build-up to this war.

Putin has been an adversary to the West and NATO for a long time. He sees Western encroachment as a threat. That NATO plans to swallow up Russia and reduce it to a second-rate nation under the thumb of the United States. Some of this comes from his upbringing. And some of this comes from Russian DNA which is encoded to fear invasion. (Getting invaded multiple times will do that to a country.)

This is what made Putin who he is and is what is driving his actions.

So Putin sees the West not only coming for his beloved country and empire, but for himself.

Couple this with the fact that Putin’s legacy is on the line here. This is his war. No one in his cabinet came to him one day and said, “Let’s capture Ukraine.” This was his idea. This is his baby. He has put everything into it. He has wrapped his country’s economy into it, thousands of lives, and drafted hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens on the mantle of his war. He had better produce or it has been a waste. And then what will happen to him?

History, as they say, is written by the winners.

All this combines to make Vladimir Putin a very dangerous man. Because his stake in this war is personal. There is only one balance sheet that he is consulting: his. And he needs to come out ahead.

So make no mistake about it. There is no cost so high that Putin will not pay. No number of lives that can’t be sacrificed. No risk too great. Because the alternative is too bleak for him to contemplate.

Fortunately, Putin not insane. Otherwise he would have used a nuke right from the outset. He can still weigh the cost and benefit of actions.

He still holds out hope that he can pull a victory out of this. That Ukraine can be ground out through attrition. After all, Russia has more people than Ukraine.

But there is a line in the sand. There is a point where Putin will take the next step. He’s already said it.

“Why would we want a world without Russia?”

Of course, no one is looking to eliminate Russia. But that isn’t how Vladimir Putin sees it.

He will do what it takes to protect himself.

It’s not a question of if he will or will not use a nuclear weapon in the war in Ukraine. He will.

The question is: What will be the cause for him to use it?

The United States has been publicly ambiguous as to what it would do in response to a nuclear strike by Russia. However, some U.S. officials have stated that President Biden favours a non-nuclear response.

So now Russia knows the cost. Now Putin knows exactly where the line is.
This is why I worry that he is going to go all in and try and decimate Ukraine as much as possible before the west has a chance to respond. The power plant will get blown up, a nuke on Kiev, etc. all at the same time. He knows the initial response will not target him personally or be nuclear. Sadly I could see this ending coming a mile away when you look at my historical postings. I am sure the intel community did too which means they really didn’t care about Ukraine’s long term prospects.
 
Many commentators have been trying to guess Russia’s next move in Ukraine, especially concern the possible use of nuclear weapons. Will Russia detonate one or won’t they?

The problem with most of these is that they have been looking at Putin as a rational, reasonable man.

He’s not.

This doesn’t mean he’s mad or insane or any other cartoon variety the image conjures up.

It means that Putin is not operating the war from the cold, dispassionate position it takes to properly prosecute a war.

The war in Ukraine is personal to him. And that is what makes Putin a very dangerous man.

From the onset, Vladimir Putin has not operated in the manner expected by any rational standard. Russia has constantly defied expectations because Russia has not done what any sane military would have. From the invasion to the operation to throwing chaff into the fire (untrained and/or unprepared conscripts), Russia is behaving as if it is defending St. Petersburg from the advancing Third Reich rather than as the invader trying to capture new territory.

Putin himself has responded as a cornered animal rather than a leader, snarling and swiping in a desperate attempt to keep NATO out of Ukraine. Cue the obligatory nuclear threat that is made every couple of days from either him or his subordinates.

More telling, though, is Putin’s hands-on approach to the war. Reports are that he is micromanaging. This is never a good thing. Generally, a leader gives the army its objectives and then lets the army do its thing. But when politicians start to get involved, things go bad. And the more they get involved, the worse it gets. Just look at the Korean and Vietnam wars and see what results from when politicians butt in.

But this micromanaging also means that the war is a reflection on him. These are his victories as well as his failures.

We also have to look at the build-up to this war.

Putin has been an adversary to the West and NATO for a long time. He sees Western encroachment as a threat. That NATO plans to swallow up Russia and reduce it to a second-rate nation under the thumb of the United States. Some of this comes from his upbringing. And some of this comes from Russian DNA which is encoded to fear invasion. (Getting invaded multiple times will do that to a country.)

This is what made Putin who he is and is what is driving his actions.

So Putin sees the West not only coming for his beloved country and empire, but for himself.

Couple this with the fact that Putin’s legacy is on the line here. This is his war. No one in his cabinet came to him one day and said, “Let’s capture Ukraine.” This was his idea. This is his baby. He has put everything into it. He has wrapped his country’s economy into it, thousands of lives, and drafted hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens on the mantle of his war. He had better produce or it has been a waste. And then what will happen to him?

History, as they say, is written by the winners.

All this combines to make Vladimir Putin a very dangerous man. Because his stake in this war is personal. There is only one balance sheet that he is consulting: his. And he needs to come out ahead.

So make no mistake about it. There is no cost so high that Putin will not pay. No number of lives that can’t be sacrificed. No risk too great. Because the alternative is too bleak for him to contemplate.

Fortunately, Putin not insane. Otherwise he would have used a nuke right from the outset. He can still weigh the cost and benefit of actions.

He still holds out hope that he can pull a victory out of this. That Ukraine can be ground out through attrition. After all, Russia has more people than Ukraine.

But there is a line in the sand. There is a point where Putin will take the next step. He’s already said it.

“Why would we want a world without Russia?”

Of course, no one is looking to eliminate Russia. But that isn’t how Vladimir Putin sees it.

He will do what it takes to protect himself.

It’s not a question of if he will or will not use a nuclear weapon in the war in Ukraine. He will.

The question is: What will be the cause for him to use it?

The United States has been publicly ambiguous as to what it would do in response to a nuclear strike by Russia. However, some U.S. officials have stated that President Biden favours a non-nuclear response.

So now Russia knows the cost. Now Putin knows exactly where the line is.
Also if you believe it is now all but certain he will use one, shouldn’t the defcon level move to 3?
 
Also if you believe it is now all but certain he will use one, shouldn’t the defcon level move to 3?
No. The defcon levels are made for the general public. The thing is, defcon 1 and 2 are about threats to the US and its (non-ukraine) allies. So defcon 3 at this point would likely be signs of imminent nuclear use in Ukraine.
We need to be able to drop the levels more for significant events that arent necessarily a nuclear threat to the US or its allies. We need to communicate that just because a nuclear bomb may or has gone off, that doesn't mean one will fall in the US, which is what the levels are about. 2 would likely be an actual nuclear use, but even then I think D2 should be more like, there is significant chance of nuclear weapon use in the US or its allies.
 
Many commentators have been trying to guess Russia’s next move in Ukraine, especially concern the possible use of nuclear weapons. Will Russia detonate one or won’t they?

The problem with most of these is that they have been looking at Putin as a rational, reasonable man.

He’s not.

This doesn’t mean he’s mad or insane or any other cartoon variety the image conjures up.

It means that Putin is not operating the war from the cold, dispassionate position it takes to properly prosecute a war.

The war in Ukraine is personal to him. And that is what makes Putin a very dangerous man.

From the onset, Vladimir Putin has not operated in the manner expected by any rational standard. Russia has constantly defied expectations because Russia has not done what any sane military would have. From the invasion to the operation to throwing chaff into the fire (untrained and/or unprepared conscripts), Russia is behaving as if it is defending St. Petersburg from the advancing Third Reich rather than as the invader trying to capture new territory.

Putin himself has responded as a cornered animal rather than a leader, snarling and swiping in a desperate attempt to keep NATO out of Ukraine. Cue the obligatory nuclear threat that is made every couple of days from either him or his subordinates.

More telling, though, is Putin’s hands-on approach to the war. Reports are that he is micromanaging. This is never a good thing. Generally, a leader gives the army its objectives and then lets the army do its thing. But when politicians start to get involved, things go bad. And the more they get involved, the worse it gets. Just look at the Korean and Vietnam wars and see what results from when politicians butt in.

But this micromanaging also means that the war is a reflection on him. These are his victories as well as his failures.

We also have to look at the build-up to this war.

Putin has been an adversary to the West and NATO for a long time. He sees Western encroachment as a threat. That NATO plans to swallow up Russia and reduce it to a second-rate nation under the thumb of the United States. Some of this comes from his upbringing. And some of this comes from Russian DNA which is encoded to fear invasion. (Getting invaded multiple times will do that to a country.)

This is what made Putin who he is and is what is driving his actions.

So Putin sees the West not only coming for his beloved country and empire, but for himself.

Couple this with the fact that Putin’s legacy is on the line here. This is his war. No one in his cabinet came to him one day and said, “Let’s capture Ukraine.” This was his idea. This is his baby. He has put everything into it. He has wrapped his country’s economy into it, thousands of lives, and drafted hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens on the mantle of his war. He had better produce or it has been a waste. And then what will happen to him?

History, as they say, is written by the winners.

All this combines to make Vladimir Putin a very dangerous man. Because his stake in this war is personal. There is only one balance sheet that he is consulting: his. And he needs to come out ahead.

So make no mistake about it. There is no cost so high that Putin will not pay. No number of lives that can’t be sacrificed. No risk too great. Because the alternative is too bleak for him to contemplate.

Fortunately, Putin not insane. Otherwise he would have used a nuke right from the outset. He can still weigh the cost and benefit of actions.

He still holds out hope that he can pull a victory out of this. That Ukraine can be ground out through attrition. After all, Russia has more people than Ukraine.

But there is a line in the sand. There is a point where Putin will take the next step. He’s already said it.

“Why would we want a world without Russia?”

Of course, no one is looking to eliminate Russia. But that isn’t how Vladimir Putin sees it.

He will do what it takes to protect himself.

It’s not a question of if he will or will not use a nuclear weapon in the war in Ukraine. He will.

The question is: What will be the cause for him to use it?

The United States has been publicly ambiguous as to what it would do in response to a nuclear strike by Russia. However, some U.S. officials have stated that President Biden favours a non-nuclear response.

So now Russia knows the cost. Now Putin knows exactly where the line is.
CIA makes profiles of leaders around the globe. Putin has goals, and another world view for sure
 
Many commentators have been trying to guess Russia’s next move in Ukraine, especially concern the possible use of nuclear weapons. Will Russia detonate one or won’t they?

The problem with most of these is that they have been looking at Putin as a rational, reasonable man.

He’s not.

This doesn’t mean he’s mad or insane or any other cartoon variety the image conjures up.

It means that Putin is not operating the war from the cold, dispassionate position it takes to properly prosecute a war.

The war in Ukraine is personal to him. And that is what makes Putin a very dangerous man.

From the onset, Vladimir Putin has not operated in the manner expected by any rational standard. Russia has constantly defied expectations because Russia has not done what any sane military would have. From the invasion to the operation to throwing chaff into the fire (untrained and/or unprepared conscripts), Russia is behaving as if it is defending St. Petersburg from the advancing Third Reich rather than as the invader trying to capture new territory.

Putin himself has responded as a cornered animal rather than a leader, snarling and swiping in a desperate attempt to keep NATO out of Ukraine. Cue the obligatory nuclear threat that is made every couple of days from either him or his subordinates.

More telling, though, is Putin’s hands-on approach to the war. Reports are that he is micromanaging. This is never a good thing. Generally, a leader gives the army its objectives and then lets the army do its thing. But when politicians start to get involved, things go bad. And the more they get involved, the worse it gets. Just look at the Korean and Vietnam wars and see what results from when politicians butt in.

But this micromanaging also means that the war is a reflection on him. These are his victories as well as his failures.

We also have to look at the build-up to this war.

He will use one AS LONG as he stays in power, which I'm guessing could come into question in the future.

A very interesting question is the following; why most of you are so convinced that, if Putin would be replaced, the following would be "better". You definitely mistake the accelerator with the brake.

Putin has been an adversary to the West and NATO for a long time. He sees Western encroachment as a threat. That NATO plans to swallow up Russia and reduce it to a second-rate nation under the thumb of the United States. Some of this comes from his upbringing. And some of this comes from Russian DNA which is encoded to fear invasion. (Getting invaded multiple times will do that to a country.)

This is what made Putin who he is and is what is driving his actions.

So Putin sees the West not only coming for his beloved country and empire, but for himself.

Couple this with the fact that Putin’s legacy is on the line here. This is his war. No one in his cabinet came to him one day and said, “Let’s capture Ukraine.” This was his idea. This is his baby. He has put everything into it. He has wrapped his country’s economy into it, thousands of lives, and drafted hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens on the mantle of his war. He had better produce or it has been a waste. And then what will happen to him?

History, as they say, is written by the winners.

All this combines to make Vladimir Putin a very dangerous man. Because his stake in this war is personal. There is only one balance sheet that he is consulting: his. And he needs to come out ahead.

So make no mistake about it. There is no cost so high that Putin will not pay. No number of lives that can’t be sacrificed. No risk too great. Because the alternative is too bleak for him to contemplate.

Fortunately, Putin not insane. Otherwise he would have used a nuke right from the outset. He can still weigh the cost and benefit of actions.

He still holds out hope that he can pull a victory out of this. That Ukraine can be ground out through attrition. After all, Russia has more people than Ukraine.

But there is a line in the sand. There is a point where Putin will take the next step. He’s already said it.

“Why would we want a world without Russia?”

Of course, no one is looking to eliminate Russia. But that isn’t how Vladimir Putin sees it.

He will do what it takes to protect himself.

It’s not a question of if he will or will not use a nuclear weapon in the war in Ukraine. He will.

The question is: What will be the cause for him to use it?

The United States has been publicly ambiguous as to what it would do in response to a nuclear strike by Russia. However, some U.S. officials have stated that President Biden favours a non-nuclear response.

So now Russia knows the cost. Now Putin knows exactly where the line is.

But in what sense Korean and Vietnam wars could be an example of micromanaging? Korean war was a good point for US and in Vietnam war, all the stuff was in the hands of gen. Westmoreland. You don't have for sure lost the war beacause Nixon ordered to enter Cambodia, and this not an example of micromanaging neither.

Actually, I don't know if Putin is micromanaging. If it is like that, it's not a good sign, but I don't have confirmations about that.

That the war is a personal thing for Putin, in some way is obvious, but I don't think that it is only his war.

He will use one AS LONG as he stays in power, which I'm guessing could come into question in the future.

A very interesting question is the following: why most of you are so convinced that, if Putin would be replaced, the following would be "better". You definitely mistake the accelerator with the brake.
 
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Many commentators have been trying to guess Russia’s next move in Ukraine, especially concern the possible use of nuclear weapons. Will Russia detonate one or won’t they?

The problem with most of these is that they have been looking at Putin as a rational, reasonable man.

He’s not.

This doesn’t mean he’s mad or insane or any other cartoon variety the image conjures up.

It means that Putin is not operating the war from the cold, dispassionate position it takes to properly prosecute a war.

The war in Ukraine is personal to him. And that is what makes Putin a very dangerous man.

From the onset, Vladimir Putin has not operated in the manner expected by any rational standard. Russia has constantly defied expectations because Russia has not done what any sane military would have. From the invasion to the operation to throwing chaff into the fire (untrained and/or unprepared conscripts), Russia is behaving as if it is defending St. Petersburg from the advancing Third Reich rather than as the invader trying to capture new territory.

Putin himself has responded as a cornered animal rather than a leader, snarling and swiping in a desperate attempt to keep NATO out of Ukraine. Cue the obligatory nuclear threat that is made every couple of days from either him or his subordinates.

More telling, though, is Putin’s hands-on approach to the war. Reports are that he is micromanaging. This is never a good thing. Generally, a leader gives the army its objectives and then lets the army do its thing. But when politicians start to get involved, things go bad. And the more they get involved, the worse it gets. Just look at the Korean and Vietnam wars and see what results from when politicians butt in.

But this micromanaging also means that the war is a reflection on him. These are his victories as well as his failures.

We also have to look at the build-up to this war.

Putin has been an adversary to the West and NATO for a long time. He sees Western encroachment as a threat. That NATO plans to swallow up Russia and reduce it to a second-rate nation under the thumb of the United States. Some of this comes from his upbringing. And some of this comes from Russian DNA which is encoded to fear invasion. (Getting invaded multiple times will do that to a country.)

This is what made Putin who he is and is what is driving his actions.

So Putin sees the West not only coming for his beloved country and empire, but for himself.

Couple this with the fact that Putin’s legacy is on the line here. This is his war. No one in his cabinet came to him one day and said, “Let’s capture Ukraine.” This was his idea. This is his baby. He has put everything into it. He has wrapped his country’s economy into it, thousands of lives, and drafted hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens on the mantle of his war. He had better produce or it has been a waste. And then what will happen to him?

History, as they say, is written by the winners.

All this combines to make Vladimir Putin a very dangerous man. Because his stake in this war is personal. There is only one balance sheet that he is consulting: his. And he needs to come out ahead.

So make no mistake about it. There is no cost so high that Putin will not pay. No number of lives that can’t be sacrificed. No risk too great. Because the alternative is too bleak for him to contemplate.

Fortunately, Putin not insane. Otherwise he would have used a nuke right from the outset. He can still weigh the cost and benefit of actions.

He still holds out hope that he can pull a victory out of this. That Ukraine can be ground out through attrition. After all, Russia has more people than Ukraine.

But there is a line in the sand. There is a point where Putin will take the next step. He’s already said it.

“Why would we want a world without Russia?”

Of course, no one is looking to eliminate Russia. But that isn’t how Vladimir Putin sees it.

He will do what it takes to protect himself.

It’s not a question of if he will or will not use a nuclear weapon in the war in Ukraine. He will.

The question is: What will be the cause for him to use it?

The United States has been publicly ambiguous as to what it would do in response to a nuclear strike by Russia. However, some U.S. officials have stated that President Biden favours a non-nuclear response.

So now Russia knows the cost. Now Putin knows exactly where the line is.
Agree 100%. But also when I think back over the nuclear-age Cold War with the USSR, I wonder how many Soviet leaders I would have viewed differently.
-- 1. Nikita Khrushchev - up to 1964? No. Same as Putin. We are mostly lucky we didn't end up in nuclear war under Khrushchev.
-- 2. Leonid Brezhnev - up to 1982 (he had a stroke in 1975)? No. Remember the 1968 Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia, the arrest of Dubczek? (where was NATO when Czechoslovakia was invaded? crickets...) The ending of liberalization? Soviet hegemony over Central and Eastern Europe. Anyone believe if USA provided arms to a nation threatening USSR borders, that Brezhnev would not be threating USA with nukes? (And this is when Putin joined KGB in 1975 under Brezhnev aiding the evil Stasi in East Germany)
-- 3. Yuri Andropov (up to 1984)? No. Here was a Soviet leader behind suppression of the 1956 Hungarian uprising, a KGB leader, and part of the efforts against Czechs. Ended all arms control negotiations; spun the USSR attack on Korean Air Flight KAL-007,
-- 4. Konstantin Chernenko (barely in power for a year to 1985)? Maybe. This was probably the most "reasonable" of the USSR leaders, to the extent he was one, gravely ill even when reading Andropov's eulogy. Cherenko was mainly a propped-up leader, possibly reminiscent of some other recent world leaders.
-- 5. Mikhail Gorbachev (1985-1991 the end of USSR). Yes. And perhaps this is the key to Putin's personal hostility. This was the Soviet leader that drove the USSR into the grave. It is ironic to see through the lens of history, how despite violence in the 1980s how Gorbachev is remembered (fondly in West). Certainly Gorbachev was no Putin. But this is also waht Putin believes is his strongest message: Putin is no Gorbachev (maybe his worst fear?). I believe from Putin's view, Gorbachev's "failures" to lead a strong USSR were "personal to him." Gorbachev was a leader of (relative) restraint. Still if USA rolled up HIMARS into Poland (like Ukraine now), I wounder how much detente Gorbachev would have really supported. Putin resigned from KGB in 1991 under Gorbachev to begin his "political" career.... manipulating "managed democracy" to lead to his cruel dictatorship.
 
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A very interesting question is the following: why most of you are so convinced that, if Putin would be replaced, the following would be "better"
When I see the headlines of CNN: Putin's War, I think that's a bad analysis of the situation. I also believe that the theory, it would be better without Putin, is baseless.
There are extremist groups in Russia who put pressure
for Putin to be even meaner, some groups want
the destruction of Ukraine and perhaps even of the USA|West.
I suspect Russian extremist groups sabotaged NordStream, of course I have no proof.
Even if there would be a revolution of the Russian people to overthrow
Putin, after Putin is not certain.
Reminder: In 1917 or 1918, the Russian people revolted and overthrew The TSAR, and they found themselves under 70 years of Communist.
 
In the next month, between now and Tuesday, November 8, 2022, might be the optimum moment for the Russia dictator to leverage perceived "attacks on Russia" to escalate - using both the current situation - and the upcoming USA mid-term elections as pressure points. Certainly a month ahead to be diligent.
 
In the next month, between now and Tuesday, November 8, 2022, might be the optimum moment for the Russia dictator to leverage perceived "attacks on Russia" to escalate - using both the current situation - and the upcoming USA mid-term elections as pressure points. Certainly a month ahead to be diligent
The bi-annual “October Surprise”
 
A very interesting question is the following: why most of you are so convinced that, if Putin would be replaced, the following would be "better". You definitely mistake the accelerator with the brake.
Never said his replacement would be better. Not once was that mentioned.

General consensus is that his replacement will be worse, unless there is a coup.
 
Never said his replacement would be better. Not once was that mentioned.

General consensus is that his replacement will be worse, unless there is a coup.

not you. In fact, I wasn't quoting you.
However, also in the case of a coup (that I find almost impossible), why the replacement will be better? If we speak about a coup, it's also possibile a military coup because Putin is considered too much moderate, when the military maybe is for a declaration of war and a total mobilization. For example.
 
not you. In fact, I wasn't quoting you.
However, also in the case of a coup (that I find almost impossible), why the replacement will be better? If we speak about a coup, it's also possibile a military coup because Putin is considered too much moderate, when the military maybe is for a declaration of war and a total mobilization. For example.
I also did not imply it would be better, just said it would severely diminish the nuclear capabilities of an already unstable political apparatus. You can't really expect a united opposition regime to come into power after Putin, ready to use nukes. Given the amount of infighting among the current regime I could only see the next dictator of Russia trying to rebuild the conventional army to bolster their own image.
 
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