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UA-RU-NATO | Discussions

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DarkNoon said:
Says a lot about you not willing to listen. Don't want to learn the facts fine. Don't talk about it then.
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Are yes two different minds two different outlooks. You'll have more supporters obviously but with any luck Ukraine offensive will be successful considering Russians financial ability to still be fighting is beyond everybody's comprehension. I'm just waiting for tactical nuke response should Ukraine look to be successful in taking back annexed areas. Things should get hot again very soon now ground is drying. Interesting times very soon. Pity sanctions didn't achieve goals earlier as predicted. 🤷🏻‍♂️
 
Yingyang said:
Are yes two different minds two different outlooks.
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No only facts. As reported above by another member as well you are wrong..........
Seriously said:
Russia was seeing very good profits thru the fall of last year but they have taken a dive exporting to China and India.
The problem they have the don’t have any deep water ports for supertankers so the delivery cost are higher.
So what they sell is discounted.
dailycaller.com

US Allies Snap Up Russian Oil, Sell Their Own To Boost Profits

Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. are among the Gulf states purchasing Russian oil despite their own oil wealth, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday.
dailycaller.com dailycaller.com
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DarkNoon said:
If you care to actually learn the numbers and what it really means for Russia...👇
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We have to be careful not to mistake opinion for fact.

When some analyst trots out numbers, there is another analyst who will trot out the same thing and come to a different conclusion.

Let each side present his case.

But present your case.
 
#Bakhmut may very well end up being the catalyst for a Russian civil war.
1) Putin has ordered that Bakhmut must be taken by May 8th, in time for the Soviet Victory Day parade on May 9th. He has threatened Shoigu and others with dire consequences.
2) Prigozhin has Putin's blessing as head of Wagner PMC, a mercenary group established and largely controlled by the FSB & GRU (Russian Military Intelligence).
3) Army and intel services famously hate each other. The jockeying for power between the various factions has been ongoing.
4) Expect Wagner PMC to retreat from Bakhmut in the coming days to completely screw over Shoigu and the Russian army. This is a perfect way for Prigozhin to setup Shoigu and other generals.
5) For May 9th, Ukrainians may end up controlling all of Bakhmut, and possibly much, much more. This would have highly unpredictable domino effects domestically in Russia.
6) Right now, the Russian Game of Thrones is just backstabbing, scheming in the shadows, assassinations, and so on. But Bakhmut may turn out to be the catalyst to ignite a 'hot' civil war among the factions in Russia.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1652399267179565057
 
alphaecho said:
#Bakhmut may very well end up being the catalyst for a Russian civil war.
1) Putin has ordered that Bakhmut must be taken by May 8th, in time for the Soviet Victory Day parade on May 9th. He has threatened Shoigu and others with dire consequences.
2) Prigozhin has Putin's blessing as head of Wagner PMC, a mercenary group established and largely controlled by the FSB & GRU (Russian Military Intelligence).
3) Army and intel services famously hate each other. The jockeying for power between the various factions has been ongoing.
4) Expect Wagner PMC to retreat from Bakhmut in the coming days to completely screw over Shoigu and the Russian army. This is a perfect way for Prigozhin to setup Shoigu and other generals.
5) For May 9th, Ukrainians may end up controlling all of Bakhmut, and possibly much, much more. This would have highly unpredictable domino effects domestically in Russia.
6) Right now, the Russian Game of Thrones is just backstabbing, scheming in the shadows, assassinations, and so on. But Bakhmut may turn out to be the catalyst to ignite a 'hot' civil war among the factions in Russia.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1652399267179565057
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I see there nothing more but a wild take of acid-fueled imagination.

1 - Putin's rule is stable, because Russian spheres of power are very insensitive to change. They are full of stupid, absolutely passive people who has control over their own little domain that brings them money, and do not want anything else but peace and quiet, and that nobody disturbes them (Putin guarantees that). There will be no clash, or no intervention into each other spheres, they have no intention, no desire to do that. No jockeying for power - they simply sit on their asses and hope storm won't make them fall over. And keep it that way is the current #1 objective of Russian government. If our people in seats were that ambitious as you imagine, Russia would be on top of the world with US & China, and Ukraine would be dealt with in days.
2 - PMC Wagner is not just that talking head Prigozhin. It is driven by personel that he recruited from people. And he's done so much to gain that trust of people and Russian's publicity overall, that the moment he gives up land like army does - he's over. People won't believe him anymore, PMC will lose that power. He will not be able to re-assemble it again.
3 - I see that you have no actual idea on how things are currently going on Russian Game of Thrones. They are public, just a little research - recent changes in army and it's supply are being positive and well-recepted by people and active servicemen. They are being made for the sake of efficiency.
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
I have to agree with this.
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It is true that we cannot know. There is one commonality in all highly centric control governments.
They can and do collapse abruptly and often with little outside warning.

That is not to say it will but it is impossible to discount it off hand based upon public reports.

We have all seen even that public reporting, “pravda” is not always an accurate representation of reality. This is as true in the US and Russia or Europe. Maybe not as much extreme as China currently. But it is a common aliment of most governments.

Was there widespread admission that the iron curtain was going to collapse and Warsaw nations would fold so quickly? Was there wide spread reporting that Trump had a snowballs chance in hell of winning?

So it’s an opinion piece. I see nothing to indicate it’s going to happen, but who am I that would know. That said I will not be surprised in the least if an abrupt radical change in Russias government popped up.
 
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No way for anyone to know weather your in Russia or in The West. Russia is a closed circuit, even to its own people. We only know what the hawks in the Kremlin want us to know or puts out.

So of course things look stable & if they where not stable we still wouldn't know. We will only know somthing is wrong well after the fact/event, not before.
 
DarkNoon said:
Because Russia is desperately trying to move its oil and gas since EU no longer buys it.

READ CAREFULLY:
So Russia has no choice but to settle for less with China and India. China and India know Russia has a lot of excess energy resources now that it needs to desperately get rid of so they are able to negotiate prices way below its valued market price meaning Russia is still losing quite a bit of money after manufacturing costs even though they are selling more.
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Does this moment of heavily discounted oil/gas allow China to accelerate their plans to invade Taiwan?
Do they have the infrastructure to continuously store the excess for war?
 
es7129 said:
Does this moment of heavily discounted oil/gas allow China to accelerate their plans to invade Taiwan?
Do they have the infrastructure to continuously store the excess for war?
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They are increasing production and importation currently. Their stratigic reserves were topped off during covid.
Now as to how that effects any war plans it doesn’t say. But it does give you an idea of their trends.
 
alphaecho said:
#Bakhmut may very well end up being the catalyst for a Russian civil war.
1) Putin has ordered that Bakhmut must be taken by May 8th, in time for the Soviet Victory Day parade on May 9th. He has threatened Shoigu and others with dire consequences.
2) Prigozhin has Putin's blessing as head of Wagner PMC, a mercenary group established and largely controlled by the FSB & GRU (Russian Military Intelligence).
3) Army and intel services famously hate each other. The jockeying for power between the various factions has been ongoing.
4) Expect Wagner PMC to retreat from Bakhmut in the coming days to completely screw over Shoigu and the Russian army. This is a perfect way for Prigozhin to setup Shoigu and other generals.
5) For May 9th, Ukrainians may end up controlling all of Bakhmut, and possibly much, much more. This would have highly unpredictable domino effects domestically in Russia.
6) Right now, the Russian Game of Thrones is just backstabbing, scheming in the shadows, assassinations, and so on. But Bakhmut may turn out to be the catalyst to ignite a 'hot' civil war among the factions in Russia.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1652399267179565057
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I don't have undestood the game Prigozhim is playing with, but I think that is very very unlikely that Wagner PMC will retreat spontaneously from Artemovsk! Also the Wagner PMC has payed with blood the battle of Bakmut... so, I think that if Prigozim will say to its troops: "Ok, it was a joke, now we will hand the city to the Ukrainanins!", then the troops, after so many deads, are supposed to not react so pleasantly. I wonder how one can have such ideas!
 
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Citizen-21 said:
PMC Wagner is not just that talking head Prigozhin. It is driven by personel that he recruited from people. Done so much to gain that trust of people.
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Right. Because Russian prisoners are so hard to recruit or gain trust with... Or by in large most are under severed minorities in Siberia being drafted must of been so difficult to round up and sent to be cannon fodder. 🤦‍♂️

Citizen-21 said:
3 - I see that you have no actual idea on how things are currently going on Russian Game of Thrones.
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Well the last person I'm going to believe about what's going on with the Kremlin is someone in Russia who is forced fed entirly false narratives fabricated by the Kremlin about literally everything. AKA only what they want you to know. 🙄

bartok said:
Also the Wagner PMC has payed with blood the battle of Bakmut..
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Haha like the leaders of Wagner actually give a shit about the low life thugs and criminals it employees from penal colonies or else where.

Man that koolaid is strong. 🤣👏
 
DarkNoon said:
Right. Because Russian prisoners are so hard to recruit or gain trust with... Or by in large most are under severed minorities in Siberia being drafted must of been so difficult to round up and sent to be cannon fodder. 🤦‍♂️


Well the last person I'm going to believe about what's going on with the Kremlin is someone in Russia who is forced fed entirly false narratives fabricated by the Kremlin about literally everything. AKA only what they want you to know. 🙄


Haha like the leaders of Wagner actually give a shit about the low life thugs and criminals it employees from penal colonies or else where.

Man that koolaid is strong. 🤣👏
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Wagner PMC had reached many goals and this is possible only if there is trust between troops and officers and this imply that there are some doubts about how much Wagner leaders actually give a shit about troops. Furhermore, theese life thugs and criminals are armed so, in the absolutely ridiculous assumption that it will be odered to them to leave Bakmut, they will surely mutiny. However, what should I have to say... if you think that Wagner will leave Bakmut just after having conquered it... let's see: once again, it will be the reality to speak. Maybe Wagner PMC will leave the next city, maybe Sloviansk.
 
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