. The US has to take a back seat on this eventually, or a point of no return will be reached
What exactly would be a backseat?
Would it be no participation or aid to Ukraine.
Or would that be European nato nations being the tactical leaders.
I’ve said from the start that the alarm bells for an invasion were very much getting rung in Eastern Europe.
The US had limited and even halted lethal aid to Ukraine in 2021.
It was Canada GB And Norway who began to flow military aid into greater numbers before the war.
Even with the question of F-16’s this was European nations raising this prospect before the US.
I’m not slamming the door in your face on your point. It’s certainly a relevant question.
There is obviously a horizon event that will spark Russia to escalate dramatically. The question always is what?
A 10,000 foot perspective:
The US and nato before the war started had not sent or indicated they would ever send offensive weapons, aircraft or armor to Ukraine. Infact in 2021 Biden had halted lethal aid to Ukraine for half a year specifically to lower tensions with Russia and aiming towards more productive talks in July 2021.
There was a hard stop in NaTO membership because of Donbas and Crimea and Russias general objection to it.
All the while Russia spent a half year on mobilization of troops supplies and armor.
It was in dec 2021 that several nato and non-nato nations began to seriously believe Russia was going to invade irregardless. Consequently several began to increase light arms and equipment to Ukraine in dec Jan amd Feb.
Russia invades and the first major statement from several western nations including the US was a warning and invitation for Zelinski to leave ukraine.
Zelinski basically said “nuts”.
The US and a few other nato states were basically going to let Ukraine fall.
But with the Ukrainians putting up such a fierce resistance, Zelinski failing to abdicate, and many Eastern European NATO members raising hell about demonstrably true Russia imperial expansionism. All the nato members got on the same page and began a slow steady and significant ramping up of supplies and range of weapons.
First it was drones to Ukraine we’re going to provoke Putin, then it was armored personnel vehicles, then patriots and other types of air defense. Then it was main battle tanks and intermediate range cruise missiles.
All the while Russia lost captured territory in the west and failed to take Odessa and the rest of the Black Sea coast.
While launching hundreds of long range cruise missiles into Ukrainian cities often time indiscriminately.
And in eastern Ukraine the literally leveled cities with arty and Buk missile launchers firing thermobaric and WP.
So nato has carefully and in my opinion slowly advanced the types of equipment to Ukraine. Continue to insist that no NATO equipment can be used upon Russia territory. Except possibly at the boarder on logistics sites.
While Russia has played scorched earth in E. Ukraine and indiscriminately launched cruise missile into Kiev and Odessa.
What exactly should NATO do different?
Serious question I’m open to suggestions.
Nato cannot remove support for Ukraine full stop it will severely damage the alliance at this point.
If Russia is allowed to take Odessa and the land route to Transisteria is complete. And in five years Russia will do the same thing all over to Moldova.
While nato resumes deploying THADDS patriot and the new intermediate range offensive missile systems in Germany Poland and Finland more than likely. Also increasing the size of permanent garrisons in the Baltics Poland and Romania.
One last thing to consider long range, 10 years. If Ukraine falls Russia then has an intact land corridor to Hungary and Serbia.
I sincerely do not believe Russia will not exploit this nor do I see how Nato and the EU can ignore it.
It’s a bad deal but who initiated the territory expansion who felt it necessary to resort to military force. NATO did nothing over Georgia nor Ukraine. So this argument that NATO is some how a imperialist militaristic consortium of nations bent on expansion is weak from the start.
i included a lot of points in there. I’m in no way implying your disagreed or argued against them in the past. I included them to illustrate the 10000 foot view. Not to refute you specifically. So don’t feel like I’m piling on your.
Other that nato continuing to plainly and clearly spelling out their goals not to invade Russia or topple the Russian government in anyway while being clear that at a minimum the liberation of Ukrainian territory occupied when the war started must be returned.
Also Every time a Russian
official spouts off about the use of nukes a NATO official needs to clearly respond with “reply in kind”.
And lastly continue to be open to a settlement with the return of occupied territories at a minimum.
I was really long winded, but it is a very complicated situation with dozens of players and it seemed to deserve being spelled out. Rather than just a talking point quip.