- Joined
- Jan 23, 2020
Not really sure what this has to do with a disease in the Congo currently, he’s not even confirmed, but ok, guys.Agree.
Strange we been finding each other on the same point of views lately.
Seems I’m right over the target.
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Possible Medical Incident of International Concern-Congo: UPDATE-SOLVED
- Thread starter Spyglass
- Start date
Seems I’m right over the target.
- Joined
- Jul 6, 2023
You don't calculate CFR over a bunch of cases of an undiagnosed disease about which you don't even know the number of suspected cases, the transmission method and the number of the asymptomatics/recovered (if present)...period.
But you know what? you have already decided that it's an airborne lethal virus...so what can I say?
WHO doesn't deploy in the middle of nothing? Man it's literally their job!!!
Malnutrition doesn't matter?
Right...hahaha.
Spyglass, what can I say, keep believing whatever you want and playing your show.
I have politely invited you to do this if it makes you feel better.
You can't keep doing a polite discussion, maybe because you don't have an idea about the subject that you're talking about.
Because if it was the case...you would have never written absurdities like this.
"The WHO can’t keep those samples on ice forever in the jungle. They set up a mobile lab, and have access to Starlink. This isn’t the 19th century. I didn’t imply a conspiracy to hide results if that is what you are implying that I implied."
Or picked Ebola as an example, as it's a self limiting disease (still) due to its lethality, that really doesn't compare depending on the very limited data we have.
But what can I say?
I mean no one prevents you from posting invented stuff, or playing the "expert" by making suppositions, calculations that not even the biggest epidemiologists I have ever entered in contact with during the years are doing for now.
But if you are unable to keep a polite discussion, the problem it's not me here...it's you.
So again... @DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Irag8er @Torch
Why are you still allowing this user to launch public and personal attacks to me? Again? After the all the discussion on the DM?
What is exactly the value that it's being added to this forum which should be a reliable platform to discuss real matters, by letting him play this show? And not to spread disinformation?
Again, I will never pretend that an user does not exist, I will always reply when I am sure that there's something wrong being said, and apologize if I am wrong.
It happened various times... @DarkNoon is an example.
Why can't you just try to reply without forcing a user to reply to you in an impolite way?
Ok < I can’t believe I’m having to say this>
Debate the position, not the person.
This is all getting too far out of polite discourse.
If you can’t say something nice… then I’m going to send y’all to your rooms until Dad get home!!
Debate the position, not the person.
This is all getting too far out of polite discourse.
If you can’t say something nice… then I’m going to send y’all to your rooms until Dad get home!!
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2020
@DarkNoon and I have an understanding. You on the other hand, I do not have an understanding with. You have made it your personal mission to pick apart my content, baselessly.
Calling someone a government shill isn’t a personal attack. Calling someone out for deliberately lawyering their content is also not a personal attack. I genuinely do not want you engaging with my content if your going to constantly derail, and trample on it, with no facts, sources, evidence or anything to back it up.
Then going as far as to call my content on this post disinformation, when all I am doing is quoting the legitimate Twitter sources. Either you don’t read, click on my links, or you’re a paid shill.
Most of what you say, is baseless, and you run to the moderators playing the victim when you get called out, like a petulant little child that just got pinched by his brother. If anything, you are putting on the show here, but for what end?
Go touch grass. Hit the long overdue IGNORE.
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- Joined
- Jan 23, 2020
Looks like an update is trending towards the potentially droplet route at least. They seem alarmed. South China News (interesting source) has an article on it. Some PHD level people are quite concerned as well.
Health Minister Samuel Roger Kamba told reporters in Kinshasa: “We are on maximum alert, we consider this to be a level of epidemic that we need to monitor”.”
www.scmp.com
Sam Scarpino, PhD, director of AI and life sciences at Northeastern University in Boston, noted that anytime there’s a large reported cluster of cases and/or deaths related to a respiratory infection, "we should be concerned."
"The level of concern goes up if there’s no clear pathogen identified," he told Fox News Digital.
www.foxnews.com
Paywall - Wash Post
Health Minister Samuel Roger Kamba told reporters in Kinshasa: “We are on maximum alert, we consider this to be a level of epidemic that we need to monitor”.”
What is mystery ‘Disease X’ and why have dozens died in DR Congo?
Congo government says it’s on ‘maximum alert’ as patient specimens are being analysed.
www.scmp.com
Sam Scarpino, PhD, director of AI and life sciences at Northeastern University in Boston, noted that anytime there’s a large reported cluster of cases and/or deaths related to a respiratory infection, "we should be concerned."
"The level of concern goes up if there’s no clear pathogen identified," he told Fox News Digital.
‘Disease X’ has killed dozens in the Congo — here’s what to know about the mystery illness
An outbreak of a mysterious illness dubbed “Disease X" has killed dozens in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), health officials say. Up to 143 people have died from the infectious disease.
www.foxnews.com
Paywall - Wash Post
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- Joined
- Jan 23, 2020
HOTEZ: It could be severe malaria, something else to consider is the meningococcal A. Another possibility is that it’s another respiratory virus pathogen such as a new coronavirus, or a zoonotic influenza like from pigs or birds, or it could be a mosquito-borne virus like yellow fever or dengue. The point is that it sounds like an infectious illness, likely viral, but there are some other nonviral pathogens as well.
HARRIS: I think it’s important to highlight the fact that the reports we are getting about this illness are from a pretty remote region of the DRC. Right now a lot is going to be speculative until we have diagnostic tests that return. My understanding so far is that we have an illness that has caused people to have fevers, headaches, cough and what we would call flu-like symptoms. Because we don’t know much about this illness yet, it’s hard to rule in or rule out specific cases. For right now it seems to be pretty broad in terms of what the realm of possibilities might be
- Joined
- Feb 4, 2024
But recent times have changed, it is true that I have often criticized the Democrats and Biden, Kamala.Agree.
Strange we been finding each other on the same point of views lately.
I did not believe in Trump's victory, to this day when I observe the formation of the Trump government, he chose loyalty, these people will be at the service of an autocrat, the current situation in the USA reminds me of Germany in the 1930s. Of course, it will not be exactly the same, but.... Many people who have been close to Donald Trump, have said that he was a fascist, I believe that.
And if many Americans wanted that, to live in a fascist country?
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2016
- Location
- Indiana, US
I'm glad everyone is getting along splendidly, but let's do try to keep the thread on topic, please and thank you.
- Joined
- Oct 16, 2016
Undiagnosed disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo
Between 24 October and 5 December 2024, Panzi health zone in Kwango Province of Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded 406 cases of an undiagnosed disease with symptoms of fever, headache, cough, runny nose and body ache. All severe cases were reported to be severely malnourished. Among the...
- Joined
- Jul 6, 2023
OFFICIAL WHO STATEMENT - 8TH OF DECEMBER 2024
(Cropped version, I have reported the key elements, please refer to the link for the full document).
Undiagnosed disease - Democratic Republic of the Congo
Between 24 October and 5 December 2024, Panzi health zone in Kwango Province of Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded 406 cases of an undiagnosed disease with symptoms of fever, headache, cough, runny nose and body ache. All severe cases were reported to be severely malnourished. Among the cases, 31 deaths have been registered. The majority of cases reported are among children, particularly those under five years of age.
The area is rural and remote, with access further hindered by the ongoing rainy season. Reaching it from Kinshasa by road takes an estimated 48 hours. These challenges, coupled with limited diagnostics in the region, have delayed the identification of the underlying cause.
Given the clinical presentation and symptoms reported, and a number of associated deaths, acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles and malaria are being considered as potential causal factors with malnutrition as a contributing factor.
Malaria is a common disease in this area, and it may be causing or contributing to the cases.
Laboratory tests are underway to determine the exact cause.
At this stage, it is also possible that more than one disease is contributing to the cases and deaths.
Symptoms such as fever, cough, headache, and body ache have been observed since 24 October, primarily through health worker reports, yet Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) data on baseline respiratory illness rates are not available for affected health zone to establish trends
Cases have been reported in family clusters, suggesting potential transmission dynamics within households, though additional investigation is needed. Furthermore, there is no information available on specific vaccination coverage, including childhood vaccination, in the affected health zone, leading to uncertainties about vaccine-deprived population immunity.
Gaps in case management have also been identified. Stock-outs of medications for treating common diseases frequently occur, and care is not provided free of charge, which could limit access to treatment for vulnerable populations.
The affected area’s remoteness and logistical barriers, including a two-day road journey from Kinshasa due to the rainy season affecting the roads and limited mobile phone and internet network coverage across the health areas, have hampered the rapid deployment of response teams and resources. Furthermore, there is no functional laboratory in the health zone or province, requiring the collection and shipment of samples to Kinshasa for analysis. This has delayed diagnosis and response efforts. The lack of sample collection supplies has further limited diagnostic capacity, leaving significant gaps in understanding the outbreak’s aetiology.
Insecurity in the region adds another layer of complexity to the response. The potential for attacks by armed groups poses a direct risk to response teams and communities, which could further disrupt the response.
At the national level, the risk is considered moderate due to the localized nature of the outbreak within the Panzi health zone in Kwango province. However, the potential for spread to neighboring areas, coupled with gaps in surveillance and response systems, this assessment underscores the need for heightened preparedness.
At the regional and global levels, the risk remains low at this time. However, the proximity of the affected area to the border with Angola raises concerns about potential cross-border transmission, and continued monitoring and cross-border coordination will be essential to mitigate this risk.
The current confidence in the available information remains moderate, as significant gaps in clinical, epidemiological, and laboratory data persist.
www.who.int
(Cropped version, I have reported the key elements, please refer to the link for the full document).
Undiagnosed disease - Democratic Republic of the Congo
Between 24 October and 5 December 2024, Panzi health zone in Kwango Province of Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded 406 cases of an undiagnosed disease with symptoms of fever, headache, cough, runny nose and body ache. All severe cases were reported to be severely malnourished. Among the cases, 31 deaths have been registered. The majority of cases reported are among children, particularly those under five years of age.
The area is rural and remote, with access further hindered by the ongoing rainy season. Reaching it from Kinshasa by road takes an estimated 48 hours. These challenges, coupled with limited diagnostics in the region, have delayed the identification of the underlying cause.
Given the clinical presentation and symptoms reported, and a number of associated deaths, acute pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19, measles and malaria are being considered as potential causal factors with malnutrition as a contributing factor.
Malaria is a common disease in this area, and it may be causing or contributing to the cases.
Laboratory tests are underway to determine the exact cause.
At this stage, it is also possible that more than one disease is contributing to the cases and deaths.
Symptoms such as fever, cough, headache, and body ache have been observed since 24 October, primarily through health worker reports, yet Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) data on baseline respiratory illness rates are not available for affected health zone to establish trends
Cases have been reported in family clusters, suggesting potential transmission dynamics within households, though additional investigation is needed. Furthermore, there is no information available on specific vaccination coverage, including childhood vaccination, in the affected health zone, leading to uncertainties about vaccine-deprived population immunity.
Gaps in case management have also been identified. Stock-outs of medications for treating common diseases frequently occur, and care is not provided free of charge, which could limit access to treatment for vulnerable populations.
The affected area’s remoteness and logistical barriers, including a two-day road journey from Kinshasa due to the rainy season affecting the roads and limited mobile phone and internet network coverage across the health areas, have hampered the rapid deployment of response teams and resources. Furthermore, there is no functional laboratory in the health zone or province, requiring the collection and shipment of samples to Kinshasa for analysis. This has delayed diagnosis and response efforts. The lack of sample collection supplies has further limited diagnostic capacity, leaving significant gaps in understanding the outbreak’s aetiology.
Insecurity in the region adds another layer of complexity to the response. The potential for attacks by armed groups poses a direct risk to response teams and communities, which could further disrupt the response.
WHO risk assessment
Based on the above rationale, the overall risk level to the affected communities is assessed as high.At the national level, the risk is considered moderate due to the localized nature of the outbreak within the Panzi health zone in Kwango province. However, the potential for spread to neighboring areas, coupled with gaps in surveillance and response systems, this assessment underscores the need for heightened preparedness.
At the regional and global levels, the risk remains low at this time. However, the proximity of the affected area to the border with Angola raises concerns about potential cross-border transmission, and continued monitoring and cross-border coordination will be essential to mitigate this risk.
The current confidence in the available information remains moderate, as significant gaps in clinical, epidemiological, and laboratory data persist.
Undiagnosed disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo
Between 24 October and 5 December 2024, Panzi health zone in Kwango Province of Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded 406 cases of an undiagnosed disease with symptoms of fever, headache, cough, runny nose and body ache. All severe cases were reported to be severely malnourished. Among the...
I just hope that the cause can be found, and those poor sick people can get well again soon, and that this infection doesn't become another pandemic problem.
- Joined
- Jul 6, 2023
The problem is...until we let people live in those conditions, there will always be the risk that one day, something nasty will start spreading globally.
People in these villages in the remote areas of Congo, are literally killed by the common cold due to the levels of malnutrition.
Local politics and military (official or not) tensions do not help at all.
Until this will be acceptable...
- Joined
- Jul 6, 2023
Between 24 October and as of 5 December 2024, Panzi health zone in Kwango Province has recorded 406 cases of an undiagnosed disease with symptoms of fever, headache, cough, runny nose and body ache and 31 deaths (Case Fatality Ratio or CFR of 7.6%).
The reported cases had a peak in epidemiological week 45 (week ending 9 November 2024). The outbreak is still ongoing.
According to a press briefing by the Ministry of Health on 5 December, there have been several additional deaths outside of health facilities (community deaths). These deaths still need to be investigated, characterized (age, gender etc) and verified.
Forgot to include the above excerpt from the WHO document.
In the end it seems very much coherent with the news reported by ANSA today...which, contrary to what "someone" claims above ("some obscure Italian source"), is the most trustworthy and respected media outlet in Italy and well known in the whole world.
Making a quick check before questioning the credibility of a news agency, takes literaly 2 minutes...just hope i did not harass anyone.
www.ansa.it
The reported cases had a peak in epidemiological week 45 (week ending 9 November 2024). The outbreak is still ongoing.
According to a press briefing by the Ministry of Health on 5 December, there have been several additional deaths outside of health facilities (community deaths). These deaths still need to be investigated, characterized (age, gender etc) and verified.
Forgot to include the above excerpt from the WHO document.
In the end it seems very much coherent with the news reported by ANSA today...which, contrary to what "someone" claims above ("some obscure Italian source"), is the most trustworthy and respected media outlet in Italy and well known in the whole world.
Making a quick check before questioning the credibility of a news agency, takes literaly 2 minutes...just hope i did not harass anyone.
Congo, 'malattia in area remota, si può contenere' - Notizie - Ansa.it
Le notizie ufficiali dal Congo - a quanto apprende l'ANSA da fonti informate - sembrano ridimensionare l'allarme per l'epidemia in Congo. (ANSA)
www.ansa.it
- Joined
- Jul 6, 2023
Samples from the outbreak in Congo arrived in the capital on Saturday but were "too damaged to be useful," according to RFI.
Other teams have been sent back to the area.
However, some*** of the rapid tests in the field were positive for malaria
***BNO's post contains en error..."plupart" has been translated with "some" instead of "MOST".
Other teams have been sent back to the area.
However, some*** of the rapid tests in the field were positive for malaria
***BNO's post contains en error..."plupart" has been translated with "some" instead of "MOST".
- Joined
- Jul 6, 2023
Source article key passages (translated):
Jean Kaseya, the director general of Africa CDC: "Our colleagues have gone to collect the samples which will be sent to the central level. So, we think that as soon as these samples arrive at the INRB [National Institute for Biomedical Research, Editor's note], we will know. And, at that point, we will decide how to proceed. "
CUT
A first team, leaving from Kenge, took 48 hours to reach the affected area and carry out rapid tests for the detection of malaria: most were positive. She also took samples. For a time, there was talk of transporting them to the Kikwit laboratory, in the neighboring province, and ultimately, the Kinshasa option was favored.
According to RFI sources, these samples arrived in the capital on Saturday evening, but too damaged to be usable. In the meantime, other teams have left for the area, such as those from the WHO and the INRB.
www.rfi.fr
Jean Kaseya, the director general of Africa CDC: "Our colleagues have gone to collect the samples which will be sent to the central level. So, we think that as soon as these samples arrive at the INRB [National Institute for Biomedical Research, Editor's note], we will know. And, at that point, we will decide how to proceed. "
CUT
A first team, leaving from Kenge, took 48 hours to reach the affected area and carry out rapid tests for the detection of malaria: most were positive. She also took samples. For a time, there was talk of transporting them to the Kikwit laboratory, in the neighboring province, and ultimately, the Kinshasa option was favored.
According to RFI sources, these samples arrived in the capital on Saturday evening, but too damaged to be usable. In the meantime, other teams have left for the area, such as those from the WHO and the INRB.
Ouest de la RDC: comment expliquer que la maladie qui sévit dans la province du Kwango tarde à être identifiée
En RDC, toujours pas d’indication sur la maladie qui sévit dans la zone de santé de Panzi, dans la province du Kwango, limitrophe de Kinshasa. Pas de nouveau bilan non plus des autorités depuis le 6…
www.rfi.fr
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2020
Italy and Honduras are now two more countries stepping up surveillance for “Disease X”.
Seems there is a legitimate risk, however small of this thing breaching international borders.
We still don’t know what the actual pathogen is yet.
Still very early. One user is hellbent on making this a “nothingburger” but I am not convinced yet. Seems to be an airborne pathogen with a low-mid CFR depending on nutrition, age, sex, etc. Hopefully it’s something that already exists.
www.bloomberg.com
Seems there is a legitimate risk, however small of this thing breaching international borders.
We still don’t know what the actual pathogen is yet.
Still very early. One user is hellbent on making this a “nothingburger” but I am not convinced yet. Seems to be an airborne pathogen with a low-mid CFR depending on nutrition, age, sex, etc. Hopefully it’s something that already exists.
‘Disease X’ Outbreak Widens as UN Sends Health Team to Congo
More cases of a mysterious flu-like illness labeled “Disease X” were reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the World Health Organization has dispatched a rapid response team to help investigate.
www.bloomberg.com
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2020
Found another forum specifically dedicated to discussing this unknown disease. I’ll link it here, and occasionally lift things I find to be interesting or productive.Italy and Honduras are now two more countries stepping up surveillance for “Disease X”.
Seems there is a legitimate risk, however small of this thing breaching international borders.
We still don’t know what the actual pathogen is yet.
Still very early. One user is hellbent on making this a “nothingburger” but I am not convinced yet. Seems to be an airborne pathogen with a low-mid CFR depending on nutrition, age, sex, etc. Hopefully it’s something that already exists.
‘Disease X’ Outbreak Widens as UN Sends Health Team to Congo
More cases of a mysterious flu-like illness labeled “Disease X” were reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the World Health Organization has dispatched a rapid response team to help investigate.
DRC - Kwango: At least 31 confirmed deaths due to epidemics of undiagnosed origin reported in Panzi - November 30, 2024+ - "most rapid tests positive for malaria" - investigations ongoing - FluTrackers News and Information
Kwango /https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kwango --------------------------------- Translation Google Kwango: 67 deaths due to an epidemic of unknown origin recorded in Panzi November 30, 2024 Kenge, November 30, 2024 (ACP).- Sixty-seven (67) deaths due to an epidemic of unknown origin were...
flutrackers.com
- Joined
- Jul 6, 2023
There's been no breach of the international borders, yet.Seems there is a legitimate risk, however small of this thing breaching international borders.
We still don’t know what the actual pathogen is yet.
Still very early. One user is hellbent on making this a “nothingburger” but I am not convinced yet. Seems to be an airborne pathogen with a low-mid CFR depending on nutrition, age, sex, etc. Hopefully it’s something that already exists.
‘Disease X’ Outbreak Widens as UN Sends Health Team to Congo
More cases of a mysterious flu-like illness labeled “Disease X” were reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the World Health Organization has dispatched a rapid response team to help investigate.
I dunno who's the user that's making it a nothingburger...maybe he's the one that's reporting info depending on official national and international authorities.
Still much better than that user that spreads false alarms, panic and conspiracy theories based on pure speculation and confusing those that are looking to see what's really happening depending on the data and on who's dealing with the situation in a 4th world isolated location, where most of the people that have been tested until now are positive to malaria.
Facts, not speculation.
News regarding the international monitoring being made
Italian authorities are making tests over the blood samples of a guy who came back from Congo in the last month, that were collected during his 1 days stay at the hospital due to persistent fever. The patient recovered and his family is ok.
This is being done just per extreme precaution and has the ID department director of the area Spartaco Sani said:
"The patient was discharged cured and no longer had any clinical problems after discharge, neither he, nor his family members living with him, nor the contacts he had had in the previous weeks."
"That this is a first case of the new disease related to the one presumed to exist in Congo is highly unlikely – says Sani – also because the subject stayed in areas very distant from the location where the outbreaks occurred. Outbreaks we still don't know much about, in fact I would say we know nothing about what is happening there. So I would try to stay calm. For precautionary purposes only, blood samples were sent to the Higher Institute of Health which will be able to carry out all possible investigations, even at a later time, if the real etiological agent of this problem which is present in Congo becomes known".
Febbre dal Congo, l’Asl: «Improbabile che il paziente lucchese sia stato contagiato» – Video
I chiarimenti di Spartaco Sani, responsabile dell’area Malattie infettive dell’Azienda USL Toscana nord ovest
www.iltirreno.it
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- Joined
- Jan 23, 2020
Seems certain doctors are concerned. The thing that makes identifying this disease more difficult, is the presence of multiple infections currently. Some people have malaria mixed in. It hasn’t left the Congo yet, but we need to hone in on what this pathogen actually is, can’t wait for the results to finally come in, so we know what we are dealing with over there.
“ In emergency medicine, certain outbreaks make me stop and pay attention. What's happening right now in Congo is one of them. A mysterious illness ("Disease X") is spreading, and here's why I'm concerned” - tweet stops there
“ In emergency medicine, certain outbreaks make me stop and pay attention. What's happening right now in Congo is one of them. A mysterious illness ("Disease X") is spreading, and here's why I'm concerned” - tweet stops there
- Joined
- Jan 27, 2018
- Location
- Guayaquil - Ecuador
