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April-May/2025 | India-Pakistan -Kashmir | Terror Attack Fallout | Discussions

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Sentry

Sentry

DEFCON Staff
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New Delhi, India
Delhi today. Everyone is enraged and wants to see them burn. Think of this like India’s 9/11 equivalent, similar mood among populace, similar rhetoric and similar pressure to act.

This event is far worse than Uri or Pulwama because the targets were civilians. In Uri or Pulwama, military personnel were targeted. It wasn’t a brutal targeted execution of Hindu civilians and tourists.
 
7gtz said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1915667074422366378
Pakistan MFA reports no other country is mediating.
If true, this marks unchartered territory. All past conflicts have had either the US or the USSR trying to deescalate.
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The USSR is obviously long gone, and as for the US - the world order of the past 40 or so years only existed due to America's steadfast commitment to upholding it. Now that Americans have had a change of heart and decided to join the demolition crew, the roof is sure to come down on everyone's heads. It's happening as we speak. 💁‍♂️
 
People don’t mind war at this point… they’re mentally preparing themselves for losses and war. Almost everyone on the ground today said they were sick of the terrorism and wanted to do whatever it took to permanently end it, and make sacrifices.
 
7gtz said:
@DarkNoon The US military planes at Jaipur are most likely there to take back the equipment after Vance’s visit as per reports
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What about the Israeli military craft landing shortly after the US?... Maybe US and Israel going to help with intelligence and logistics perhaps in coming strikes. If I had to guess.
 
7gtz said:
Delhi today. Everyone is enraged and wants to see them burn. Think of this like India’s 9/11 equivalent, similar mood among populace, similar rhetoric and similar pressure to act.

This event is far worse than Uri or Pulwama because the targets were civilians. In Uri or Pulwama, military personnel were targeted. It wasn’t a brutal targeted execution of Hindu civilians and tourists.
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It was 26 fine people, probably faultless. But this is ridiculously dangerous and therefore stupid.

Who of those 26 was so important to the government that India would risk nuclear war? As long as the crazy train is headed down the tracks let’s ask if the Indians aren’t stupid then perhaps they’re thinking to have a preemptive strike.

Punitive raids and bombings against the terrorist camps and they supporters makes sense, complies with international norms and expectations.

Cutting off water to Pakistan is not a “Red line” it is an absolute existential threat. A cases belli. I don’t generally like Pakistan. They are a guilty party in this terrorist attack and should expect some blow back. But literally pushing them to life or death is beyond stupid when the party on the receiving end is a nuclear power, oh and hates you anyways.

The Indians are not stupid and they are not radically motivated to seek out the final battle. There must be some other major components to this furball.

My 2¢ YMMV
 
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I *think* what Trump at least meant is that he clearly doesn't think the tensions are a big deal since they've been at each other's throats for a long time. Hopefully when there's changes to nuclear posturing in either Pakistan or India the US and Russia are speaking a different tone. Still, to me proper mediation isn't needed as of yet, all that has happened thus far is nothing concrete but threats and conventional posturing. In 2001 after the parliament attacks in India they reached a ceasefire after around a week of small scale conventional fighting around the LOC without much mediating.
 
Cilvilt_beredskap said:
I *think* what Trump at least meant is that he clearly doesn't think the tensions are a big deal since they've been at each other's throats for a long time. Hopefully when there's changes to nuclear posturing in either Pakistan or India the US and Russia are speaking a different tone. Still, to me proper mediation isn't needed as of yet, all that has happened thus far is nothing concrete but threats and conventional posturing. In 2001 after the parliament attacks in India they reached a ceasefire after around a week of small scale conventional fighting around the LOC without much mediating.
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Military **action** is guaranteed in this situation. The comparison you're making had absolutely no military action taken by the Indian government.

I do not think Russia has the stature to compel either India or Pakistan to do anything - could be wrong, correct me. Even if Russia had not fallen internationally, I still think they would be too caught up in the war with Ukraine to bother. I think the US is far too busy, caught up with Iran, Ukraine & the tariff war with China to bother - not to mention Americans do not seem interested in anything that doesn't affect them directly globally.
 
Please, try to understand. Modi has built an image of being a strong, masculine leader who wasn't afraid to make tough decisions especially when it came to Pakistan. This gets him elected. This is the reason he has enjoyed three terms as Prime Minister. If he fails to respond decisively and militarily, him & his party are out of power for at least 10 years. He has backed himself into a corner, being left with only one option.
 
7gtz said:
Military **action** is guaranteed in this situation. The comparison you're making had absolutely no military action taken by the Indian government.

I do not think Russia has the stature to compel either India or Pakistan to do anything - could be wrong, correct me. Even if Russia had not fallen internationally, I still think they would be too caught up in the war with Ukraine to bother. I think the US is far too busy, caught up with Iran, Ukraine & the tariff war with China to bother - not to mention Americans do not seem interested in anything that doesn't affect them directly globally.
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Huh. I'm quite sure there were military actions taken by the Indian government after the Parliament attack - but I could be wrong.
 
7gtz said:
Military **action** is guaranteed in this situation. The comparison you're making had absolutely no military action taken by the Indian government.

I do not think Russia has the stature to compel either India or Pakistan to do anything - could be wrong, correct me. Even if Russia had not fallen internationally, I still think they would be too caught up in the war with Ukraine to bother. I think the US is far too busy, caught up with Iran, Ukraine & the tariff war with China to bother - not to mention Americans do not seem interested in anything that doesn't affect them directly globally.
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Fully agree with you on this.

People comparing this to past standoffs are ignoring a critical distinction, those didn’t involve confirmed imminent Indian military action. This one does. We’re not in a war of words anymore.

India has signaled intent publicly, repeatedly, to speeches targeted at home & global audience warning of action coming. We’re simply waiting for the follow through. It’s not if, it’s when.

As for outside powers? Spot on again.

Russia doesn’t have the leverage to mediate anything here. It’s barely maintaining strategic posture elsewhere, just look at Syria...

The U.S. is swamped geopolitically stretched thin with half it's firepower parked in Middle East and domestically consumed.

And let’s be blunt... unless a nuke flies or trade lanes collapse, the American public won’t care. There’s no political incentive to step in.

You’re reading it clearly. This is operational runway now. The only question left is how far this escalates after the first strike.
 
7gtz said:
Limited strikes were planned, but cancelled last moment by the government.
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Air strikes? And part of it from me might just be wishful thinking - even a limited nuclear exchange here would be devastating for the region as a whole, including the taboo being broken. Luckily, as far as I know the whole thing with nuclear winter from even one or two strikes wouldn't really happen - but either way it wouldn't be good at all.
 
DarkNoon said:
People comparing this to past standoffs are ignoring a critical distinction, those didn’t involve confirmed imminent Indian military action. This one does. We’re not in a war of words anymore.
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Not to mention the past 4 wars they kept the water treaty going. But. You know. Not this time.
 
Cilvilt_beredskap said:
Air strikes? And part of it from me might just be wishful thinking - even a limited nuclear exchange here would be devastating for the region as a whole, including the taboo being broken. Luckily, as far as I know the whole thing with nuclear winter from even one or two strikes wouldn't really happen - but either way it wouldn't be good at all.
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The strikes he and the government are reffering to are conventional strikes targeting terror camps inside Pakistan that carried out the terror attacks against India with I am assuming will be guided conventional munitions dropped by air.
 
Being an Indian living in the capital I have the most at stake here in this conflict - my city is going to be a target for Pakistani nuclear weapons in the event it escalates to that level. I really do hope I'm wrong in my assessments. Not trying to fearmonger, just trying to be objective.
 
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