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- Apr 8, 2017
there is no ceasefire, trump lied.
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May/2025 | India-Pakistan | Escalating Crisis DEFCON 3 | Discussions
- Thread starter alphaecho
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- Oct 10, 2016
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Wait so India and Pakistan never agreed to a ceasefire but kept saying the other side violated a ceasefire?
They agreed to a 'Stoppage of Fire' for two days to prepare for potential ceasefire talks. Unfortunately, that 'Stoppage of Fire' lasted barely three hours.
Right now, it's highly uncertain if peace talks will take place within the next 32 hours. Hostilities continue to flare up sporadically. India maintains it will retaliate for today's events, so the coming hours will be crucial in determining how far India is willing to escalate or if they will seize the opportunity Pakistan is presenting with its 'victory' rhetoric at home. Pakistan's narrative suggests they've won, signaling an off-ramp to India. The real question is whether India will take it or push further.
Everyone just needs to "go home" and breath while you can and enjoy the lul in escalation for one night... do some self-care, finish prep work, or just go for a walk, because the lul in escalation may very well not last for long.
Not sure about all of you. But I've had enough of this place & twitter for a life time in just the past two weeks or hell the past 48 hours alone. So with that goodnight yall. I'll still be monitoring and will only be posting when updates are most critical.
Not sure about all of you. But I've had enough of this place & twitter for a life time in just the past two weeks or hell the past 48 hours alone. So with that goodnight yall. I'll still be monitoring and will only be posting when updates are most critical.
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- defconwarningsystem
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No.
Between those two, it's probably temporary even if it takes months or years for hostilities to resume.
We'll see what happens tomorrow.
There is some indication that forces were already on the way when the ceasefire was announced, so there was no stopping it given the way things work in Pakistan.
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US President Donald Trump's big claim. 'India's revelations forced us to intervene. Jaishankar and Doval briefed the US on Pakistan's nuclear moves' U.S. officials: “We informed Modi there was a high possibility of dramatic escalation if the conflict continued into the weekend”
Looks like the “alarming intelligence” was indeed Pakistan getting their nukes ready.
Looks like the “alarming intelligence” was indeed Pakistan getting their nukes ready.
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- Apr 8, 2017
Where is the article?
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- Oct 4, 2022
Given that there are no reports of anything kinetic for over 12 hours, is the cessation of hostilities (I hesitate to call it a proper ceasefire) now properly in place?
There is no ceasefire until they have had the formal talks and agree to somthing beyond a "Stoppage of Fire". Until that meeting happens a whole lot can go wrong.
Everyone should stay alert, be prepared, and get ready for the potential for things to breakdown again before former talks are held and not just between generals on improper de-confliction hotlines.
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- Oct 4, 2022
Given that there are no reports of anything kinetic for over 12 hours, is the cessation of hostilities (I hesitate to call it a proper ceasefire) now properly in place?
That's why I said cessation not ceasefire. But I take it that nothing has "gone wrong" so far.
After the first 4 hours there where MAJOR violations by Pakistan.
India is expected to retaliate.
However Pakistan is giving India a out by telling its people it has won the war. Singling to India BIG TIME that Pakistan wishes to end this, now.
But it is also very clear Pakistan is on the ropes and if it is Indias goal to "pop" Pakistan they are close. So will see if they retaliate for the major violations and wish to push this further or... take the off ramp.
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The pause in fire may be calculated by India. If Pakistan collapsed to fast it risks nukes. A slow burn however into a collapsed lowers that risk IMO. So the pause may only be temporary for India to prevent the nukes coming out.
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- Oct 4, 2022
Given that there are no reports of anything kinetic for over 12 hours, is the cessation of hostilities (I hesitate to call it a proper ceasefire) now properly in place?
That's why I said cessation not ceasefire. But I take it that nothing has "gone wrong" so far.
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- May 5, 2022
Without going into too much detail - Pakistan simply do not have the capability to sustain a ground war for more than a week, realistically about half of that. Based on supplies alone, fuel and ammunition, it just isn't in existence. Partly due to corruption and partly due to lack of funding. In a ground war they will be on the back foot very, very, quickly. That is before you take into account numbers and training. On both counts they come off second best.
If it came down to a ground war, which was still relatively unlikely, then India would be heading for Lahore fairly quickly which wouldn't leave Pakistan with many options.
I still think India's plan is to push Pakistan into a border war... not to seize land, but to drain their resources and force a collapse. It's strategic attrition, not territorial ambition.
If a border war breaks out, I don't see India going for land grabs. They'll just hold the line, grinding Pakistan down slowly over time until it collapses under its own weight. It's a war of exhaustion, not conquest.
It also seems reasonable that India is willing to endure this cycle of hostilities and playing along with ceasefire talks to keep Pakistan barley floating until its ready for the kill.
If Pakistan collapses too quickly, the risk of nuclear escalation rises. But if India can orchestrate a slow burn, stretching Pakistan's capacity over time, that risk is minimized. It’s controlled pressure, not a quick break. Lower nuclear risk.
India could very well be playing the long game here. I don't see them stopping, not after everything that's been said and done.
When Modi says 'never again,' I actually believe it, unlike the hollow promises of most world leaders. Modi's proven it time and again the past week there’s no doubt about his resolve.
If a border war breaks out, I don't see India going for land grabs. They'll just hold the line, grinding Pakistan down slowly over time until it collapses under its own weight. It's a war of exhaustion, not conquest.
It also seems reasonable that India is willing to endure this cycle of hostilities and playing along with ceasefire talks to keep Pakistan barley floating until its ready for the kill.
If Pakistan collapses too quickly, the risk of nuclear escalation rises. But if India can orchestrate a slow burn, stretching Pakistan's capacity over time, that risk is minimized. It’s controlled pressure, not a quick break. Lower nuclear risk.
India could very well be playing the long game here. I don't see them stopping, not after everything that's been said and done.
When Modi says 'never again,' I actually believe it, unlike the hollow promises of most world leaders. Modi's proven it time and again the past week there’s no doubt about his resolve.
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MSM says their was a ceasefire and I come back and now where at DEFCON 3! 
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Of course they were. There's no way to tell if a fighter/bomber, cruise missile or ballistic missiles fired at your country has a nuke or not on radar.
Quite frankly, both countries, once deterrence was broken at that level, are lucky None of them did.
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Just two weeks ago I was a New Member. Now I'm a Power Poster 
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Oh dear - spoke too soon.......
Somthing happening.
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