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UA-NATO/RU | Jan.-1st-2026/May 12th | Reporting

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Norway’s F-35 QRA at Evenes scrambled 41 times in 2025 and identified 53 Russian aircraft, per Luftforsvaret. 2024 comparison is 38 scrambles and 69 IDs. Luftforsvaret says the tempo has not changed markedly in recent years. 2026 so far1 intercept, with a Tu-142 “Bear F” identified north of Norway on 6 Jan.

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https://twitter.com/x/status/2009675465666216027
 
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Norway is moving the “standardized vessel” program forward with a target of at least 28 new vessels. Forsvaretsforum reports the procurement is still early phase, with FMA running prequalification now and a concept/design competition step next. This matters because a standardized fleet is a scale play, faster fielding, simpler sustainment, and a clearer industrial pipeline versus one offs.

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https://twitter.com/x/status/2009676930241704265
 
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Belgium’s cabinet approved signing an MOU with the UK to create and operationalize a Joint Electromagnetic Warfare Support Center (JEWSC). Goal is to modernize Belgium’s existing electromagnetic warfare center so it can support current and future Defence weapon systems jointly, improving deployable EW support and resilience.

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https://twitter.com/x/status/2009681774260158959
 
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Belgian Defence says it deployed 11 dedicated engineer reconnaissance capability units in Lithuania for the first time, feeding mobility and obstacle intelligence to the multinational NATO Forward Land Forces battle group. They describe confirming and mapping a roughly 5 km obstacle belt (mines, concertina wire, road obstacles) and coordinating with German EOD, plus mine threat training for Belgian elements.

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https://twitter.com/x/status/2009682962275606611
 
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Denmark says Bornholms Regiment formally began fielding the new Patria 6x6 APC (PMV) on Jan 9 and officially shifted from a reconnaissance unit to mechanized infantry the same day. Programme scale cites 129 vehicles planned for Bornholm. First 15 already on the island. One mechanized company is intended for high readiness and rapid deployment.

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https://twitter.com/x/status/2009684385101164630
 
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Sweden: Sapo says the security situation remains serious, keeps the terror threat elevated, and assesses Russia as the biggest state threat. It explicitly flags heightened sabotage risk tied to Western support for Ukraine.

In parallel, the Swedish government is messaging additional measures to counter hybrid threats including a national psychological defence strategy during 2026 and new tasking for agencies to share threat indicators with critical actors.

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https://twitter.com/x/status/2009685943746474328

@DEFCON Warning System @RiffRaff @Sentry @Irag8er @Torch
 
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Finland says it delivered material aid to Ukraine from EU rescEU readiness stockpiles hosted in Finland. The ministry states the shipment includes CBRN response supplies plus medical items, and that this is Finland’s third delivery from these EU reserves.

Separately, Finland says Defence Minister Häkkänen met NATO SACEUR during a Jan 8 to 9 working visit that also included a stop at the Vaalimaa border station with the Border Guard. The official readouts emphasize NATO deterrence and defence integration in the north, including the recent shift of the Nordics under JFC Norfolk and the build out of Finland linked land command and forward land posture.

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https://twitter.com/x/status/2009708385428808182
 

Addendum to SOCOM7’s fine reporting:​

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Russia’s Oreshnik Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile Used In Large-Scale Attack On Ukraine​


“Russia's second Oreshnik IRBM attack…”

www.twz.com

Russia's Oreshnik Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile Used In Large-Scale Attack On Ukraine

Russia's second Oreshnik IRBM attack was part of a huge missile and drone barrage, but its significance may have been mainly symbolic. The second Oreshnik was fired as part of a huge missile and drone barrage, but its significance was mainly symbolic.
www.twz.com www.twz.com
 
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Poland: “Safe Baltic” armed forces legal package signed today expands Armed Forces’ legal options to act during threats in Polish maritime areas and Baltic Sea security, including:

1️⃣. Air defense commander authority to decide to shoot down an incoming missile if comms are lost or time does not allow orders, with immediate notification to the President.
2️⃣. NATO air posture explicit legal basis for allied forces conducting airspace surveillance and territorial shielding in Poland (requires Presidential consent via MoD/PM chain).
3️⃣. Liability state liability rules for third-party damage caused by neutralization actions (missiles/UAVs), including when NATO forces conduct those actions.
4️⃣. Maritime enforcement expands Navy warship commanders’ enforcement powers in specific scenarios (Border Guard style stop/control/redirect/pursuit), with implementing details set by MoD order (not published).

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https://twitter.com/x/status/2009715536821882949
 
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Slovakia defence minister Robert Kalinak says the government will prepare changes so the state can respond to small drone airspace violations in peacetime, not only under wartime style authorities. He also says he will raise air defence and this drone issue with NATO SACEUR Alexus Grynkewich during his expected Bratislava visit next week, and references NATO’s “Eastern Sentry” activity on the eastern flank.

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https://twitter.com/x/status/2009729871858037011
 
Lviv mayor Andriy Sadovy says that the impact of Oreshnik missile strike on critical infrastructure was horrible, but it would have been on a totally different scale had it been carrying a warhead. He also says the hypersonic missile didn’t show up on any radars and that Ukraine has nothing to counter this kind of weapon.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2009724928057299138
 
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Tatarigami_UA@Tatarigami_UA

The use of an IRBM in a conventional manner, without a payload, is perhaps the most grotesque, conventionally costly, and ineffective use of an IRBM. It appears aimed mostly at foreigners, whom Putin likely anticipates would be terrified and seek de-escalation with him

Dr. Jeffrey Lewis@ArmsControlWonk

Oreshnik is NOT "without a payload" -- each RV seems to contain 6 flechettes (tungsten rods, I assume) that use kinetic energy (speed and mass) to damage targets. DARK EAGLE also uses tungsten flechettes. That said, conventional IRBMs require very high accuracy to be good value.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2009744069459607679
 
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Latvia MoD says Baltic Defense Line fortifications are moving into phased execution. Obstacle line and storage sites are the immediate priority, with VNĪ handling construction. Bunker builds will roll out sequentially once NBS finalizes military requirements

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https://twitter.com/x/status/2009835958997586099
 
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Finland’s withdrawal from the Ottawa anti personnel mine ban took effect on 10 Jan 2026, explicitly enabling planning to reintroduce anti personnel mines into the Finnish Defence Forces toolkit. This is a clear shift toward maximum territorial denial and deterrence in a high threat neighborhood.

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https://twitter.com/x/status/2009998052527071269
 
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