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🗣️ | US-Israel/Iran | Regional War Resumes | ANALYSIS OF REPORTS

Ben Dhyani said:
Hmmm...sus

Israel shared intelligence with US of Iranian plot to assassinate Trump, sources say​

Israel shared intelligence with the United States that Iran had recently devised a new plan to assassinate President Donald Trump, two sources familiar with matter told CNN, adding another layer of tension as a ceasefire deal between the countries comes under strain.

Other American officials suggested the Israeli report could be an effort to sway Trump’s decision-making as he weighs whether to intensify American military action against Iran.
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I have seen reports of this as the reason why Airforce one planes were switched in Turkey. The new one doesn't have all the security protocols the old one has yet.
 
Playing high stakes game?
www.afr.com

Iran bets Trump will blink first

The latest flare-up lays bare Tehran’s anger at US attempts to weaken its influence over the strait, as well as a hawkish mindset that has taken hold.
www.afr.com www.afr.com

Iran bets Trump will blink first​

After a week of escalating clashes with the US, Iran has taken a high-stakes gamble by playing what it believes is its key card: announcing it had closed the Strait of Hormuz in an attempt to pressure President Donald Trump to bend to its will and allow it to retain control over the vital waterway.

At the same time, it has launched its biggest wave of missiles and drones in weeks at US-aligned Arab states, targeting Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar and Oman.
 
teekay99 said:
I'm curious what this really means.
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I’m curious as to why anyone would actually track what Iran claims.
Trumps bad at this but Iran is so over the top about making hyperbolic claims they don’t even rate a yawn.
 
Publius said:
I’m curious as to why anyone would actually track what Iran claims.
Trumps bad at this but Iran is so over the top about making hyperbolic claims they don’t even rate a yawn.
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That's a fair point. But even fantastic liars tell the truth from time to time. And Iran's nuclear program, in whatever state of development it may be in, is mostly what this conflict is about. If the regime signals a shift in nuclear doctrine, it deserves a closer look.

But you have a rational point. This claim could just be fear-mongering and exaggeration.
 
teekay99 said:
That's a fair point. But even fantastic liars tell the truth from time to time. And Iran's nuclear program, in whatever state of development it may be in, is mostly what this conflict is about. If the regime signals a shift in nuclear doctrine, it deserves a closer look.

But you have a rational point. This claim could just be fear-mongering and exaggeration.
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First what shift in nuclear doctrine? Seriously considering what they have already attempted to do with their nuclear program. Their decades long stalling of IAEA inspections and continuing to ignore past agreements. The only change in nuclear doctrine that would be a materially change would be to actually give up on developing and actually do it.

Think about this and I know it’s a knife edge consideration.
With tensions running high and militaries spun up. Then let’s not forget some really pivotal changes in alliances in the region. By those I mean the Islamic Gulf States standing solidly not just with the US but Israel as well against another Islamic nation.
Just that alone is quite a change.

So what would the regions reaction be if Iran did try something with a nuke. I’m thinking it would be pretty severe beat down and years long man hunt.

Here’s the thing about a weak nuclear states threatening to use nukes. Sure they get a chance at throwing a haymaker.
Irregardless of that someone is going to pull out a really big gun do bad things.
 
Publius said:
First what shift in nuclear doctrine?
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We don't really know exactly what their nuclear doctrine is. I don't believe Iran publishes documents like the US Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) or the Russian Fundamentals of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Area of Nuclear Deterrence. Iran leads us to believe they do not have nukes, so why would they publish such documents?

We make educated guesses that Iran is a near-nuclear state, and some (including me and others on this site) assume Iran has a nuclear weapon of some sort.

Assuming Iran has some nuclear capability today, to this point, it has chosen not to use it for some reason. A true shift in nuclear doctrine signals a change in that reasoning. For example, maybe they had an existential threat use doctrine yesterday that morphs into a proactive demonstration of force doctrine tomorrow. Maybe a shift in doctrine means they might be willing to use nuclear capability against countries other than Israel or the US. Or a change in nuclear doctrine might signal a shift from being a near-nuclear state to being an all out nuclear armed state akin to North Korea.

A statement from Iranian government sources indicating a change in nuclear doctrine could be a thinly-veiled Potsdam Declaration. It could be an emotional government official talking out of turn. Or, as you point out, it could be baseless hyperbole.

My main point is that it's a curious statement from a country that has officially stated that the use of nuclear weapons is forbidden under Islamic law. Maybe this posture has changed...
 
Irag8er said:
To cover the cost of protecting international shipping until Iran finally allows shipping to get back to normal
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Not to be contrary, but Iran wasn't bothering shipping until the US attacked those months ago.
 
Irag8er said:
Yup.....this is a fact.
But in my humble opinion, that was then.....this is now.
Or as I would always tell my kids....
It is what it is.
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Wasn’t bothering shipping? What planet are we on.
www.cnbc.com

Why Iran keeps seizing oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz

After the seizure of three oil tankers by Iran, tensions are rising once again in this important artery of the global economy.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
According to article in the years 2021-2023 at least 15 ships were seized or hyjacked.
Is it logical to look at the current state of affairs in a vacuum absent Irans history.

Navel gazing about the wrongs Germany suffered after WW1 in the midst 1943 would be kinda of a pointless if not counter productive process.

We have after all been at a state of conflict or low grade war for awhile now with Iran. Or do we need to recall the embassy bombing, seizures, hostages, barracks bombings.
 
Publius said:
Wasn’t bothering shipping? What planet are we on.
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I mean attacking via missiles and drones.

The article you linked said "In the most recent incidents, Iran alleges that the tankers Niovi and Purity were seized over separate legal disputes regarding ownership, and that the Advantage Sweet was taken due to a collision with an Iranian ship."

Sure, Iran's motives can be questioned. But that is a marked difference from the outright attacks that have happened after the US started the war.
 
In a massive, coordinated expansion of the ongoing kinetic campaign, U.S. air and naval forces have unleashed an intense, relentless wave of precision bombardments targeting highly sensitive Iranian military positions spanning the country's southern coastline and islands.
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Simultaneously, a major surface-to-surface ballistic missile strike has been launched from regional staging grounds. U.S. Army units stationed in Bahrain have deployed mobile HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems) to fire a barrage of long-range ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) directly at designated military targets inside Iran. This joint-force operation represents an unprecedented level of direct kinetic pressure, aiming to completely paralyze Iran's coastal defense architecture and permanently degrade its ability to project hostile force in the region's critical waters.
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IMO a ground offensive will begin next.
https://twitter.com/x/status/2076800782599344386
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Publius said:
First what shift in nuclear doctrine? Seriously considering what they have already attempted to do with their nuclear program. Their decades long stalling of IAEA inspections and continuing to ignore past agreements. The only change in nuclear doctrine that would be a materially change would be to actually give up on developing and actually do it.

Think about this and I know it’s a knife edge consideration.
With tensions running high and militaries spun up. Then let’s not forget some really pivotal changes in alliances in the region. By those I mean the Islamic Gulf States standing solidly not just with the US but Israel as well against another Islamic nation.
Just that alone is quite a change.

So what would the regions reaction be if Iran did try something with a nuke. I’m thinking it would be pretty severe beat down and years long man hunt.

Here’s the thing about a weak nuclear states threatening to use nukes. Sure they get a chance at throwing a haymaker.
Irregardless of that someone is going to pull out a really big gun do bad things.
Click to expand...
I believe Mossad has penetrated deeply in Iranian decision and technological sectors and have shared information with the CIA. Hence WAR!
 
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