- Joined
- Jun 21, 2016
"An idea, once unthinkable, is gaining attention in European policy circles: a European Union nuclear weapons program. Under such a plan, France’s arsenal would be repurposed to protect the rest of Europe and would be put under a common European command ... it would amount to an unprecedented escalation in Europe’s collective military power and a drastic break with American leadership ... Analysts say that the talk, even if it never translates into action, demonstrates the growing sense in Europe that drastic steps may be necessary to protect the postwar order in the era of a Trump presidency, a resurgent Russia and the possibility of an alignment between the two. Even proponents, who remain a minority, acknowledge enormous hurdles. But discussion of a so-called 'Eurodeterrent' has entered the mainstream — particularly in Germany, a country that would be central to any plan ... German Council on Foreign Relations said that a handful of senior European officials had 'for sure triggered a public debate about this' ... Poland’s former prime minister and now the head of its ruling party, provided the highest-level call for a European Union nuclear program ... But the most important support has come from Roderich Kiesewetter, a lawmaker and foreign policy spokesman with Germany’s ruling party, who gave the nuclear option increased credibility by raising it shortly after President Trump’s election ... calibrated his language carefully, providing just enough detail to demonstrate the option’s seriousness without offering too much ... This would require, he said, four ingredients: a French pledge to commit its weapons to a common European defense, German financing to demonstrate the program’s collective nature, a joint command and a plan to place French warheads in other European countries ... This would require a doctrine, he said, allowing Europe to introduce nuclear weapons to a non-nuclear conflict ... German lawmakers across the political spectrum worry that Mr. Trump could strike a grand bargain with Russia that excludes Europe, a potential first step toward Washington and Moscow dictating Europe’s future. Mr. Kiesewetter believes a European nuclear program would allow Europe to preserve its autonomy ... A small but growing contingent of German analysts and commentators have endorsed versions of a European nuclear program. Mr. Kiesewetter said he had heard interest from officials in the Polish and Hungarian governments, at NATO headquarters in Brussels and within relevant German ministries ... this would risk making an American exit from Europe more permanent ... Oliver Thränert, a German analyst with the Switzerland-based Center for Security Studies, warned in a white paper that any plan 'would not only be expensive, but also a political minefield full of undesirable potential political consequences' ... But France has shown no willingness to share its weapons, much less put them under a joint European command. If Paris maintains final say over their use, this might cause an adversary to doubt whether France would really initiate a nuclear conflict to protect, say, Estonia ... While most French warheads are lodged on submarines, a few dozen are fitted to air-launched cruise missiles that could be housed in, for example, German airfields ... For Germany and other European states, it would 'increase the credibility of the forward deployment against Russian aggression' ... If Europeans grew more serious about a nuclear program, Mr. Tertrais said, 'you would not necessarily see it.' Negotiations would most likely remain secret for fear of giving Mr. Trump an excuse to withdraw — or of triggering a reaction from Russia ... 'I never thought there would actually be this concern,' he said. But, he added, 'You can see where the debate is surfacing from. There is a logic to it'"
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/06/world/europe/european-union-nuclear-weapons.html?_r=0
Related:
http://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=8729
