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Article: What A Korean War Could Look Like

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
What A Korean War Could Look Like

By Thomas Lonely Wolf

Korea has been on the tipping point of a major conflict since the armistice of 1953. (The two sides are technically still at war.) While there have been many steps toward that line, recently it seems that the Koreas have been only moments away from attacking each other several times. It even came to the point where the United States was sending nuclear bombers over to Korea in a show of force.

It’s been close. With North Korea continuing its programme of nuclear weapons research, continual threats against the South and the United States itself, and with South Korea provoking North Korea and the United States holding drills to invade and attack the North’s leadership, can war be avoided?

The DEFCON Warning System believes that war in Korea is an eventuality unless there is momentous change to the path the countries are on.

There has been much speculation as to what a modern war in Korea would look like. Most of what is heard in the media is usually extremism.

What follows is our analysis of what could happen if war in Korea were to start today:

Prologue 1: North Korea, fearing an invasion or pre-emptive strike by the United States, elects to strike first.

Prologue 2: The United States, along with South Korea, fearing a surprise nuclear attack by the North, decide to attack first.

It does not matter which event occurs. After the first few minutes, either one will devolve into what follows:

North Korea will fire hundreds or thousands of salvos into South Korea. Seoul will come under heavy attack. The amount of firepower will surprise the U.S. as many missile sites will not have been discovered.

Military sites in South Korea will also be heavily damaged. Those close to the DMZ could be destroyed or rendered unusable within the first hour.
North Korean heavy armour will pour across the DMZ, though will suffer significant casualties from Western air power.

South Korean and U.S. forces will be unable to withstand the sheer number of North Korean forces, however North Korea will suffer blinding casualties. North Korea will be unable to hold any ground they capture.

The United States will begin pouring forces into South Korea as well as making incursions into North Korea. They will not, however, move close to the border with China for fear of bringing China into the conflict. This strategy will fail and China will assist North Korea. The United States must make a choice as to whether to block China from sending reinforcements and supplies to North Korea or to allow the northern border to remain open.

There will be significant protests in the United States against the conflict. At the beginning, this will not affect how the U.S. prosecutes the war. If the conflict drags on even more than a few days, these protests will grow and Congress will begin to interfere with U.S. military actions in Korea.

North Korea will use its nuclear arsenal. Seoul will be destroyed and U.S. military forces will suffer significant casualties. The United States will respond with a massive campaign to destroy the North Korean regime and its remaining nuclear weapons. China may back away at this time once nuclear weapons are used. The United States may not respond with its own nuclear arsenal, depending on what China does or what diplomacy between China and the United States has taken place. Pyongyang, however, will be bombed mercilessly.

North Korea must decide whether to attack the United States directly. Alternatively, it could also threaten Japan. While North Korean technology is not advanced enough to strike the U.S. with precision, it is capable of hitting the United States. Alternatively, a nuclear weapon can be delivered to a number of ports along the west coast. Any nuclear detonation in the United States will send shock waves through the country. The United States, politically fractured already, will see a portion of the country turn against the government and blame the United States for the attack and the resulting casualties.

If the United States has not responded to the initial nuclear attack, it certainly will to any subsequent one.

A nuclear attack on North Korea will involve between one and three weapons. Pyongyang will be vaporized. Additionally, any significant North Korean military target will be hit, though it is likely that none will exist at that time. Command and Control targets will probably be the targets. Tactical field weapons may also be used against North Korean troops. The United States will not be concerned if Chinese troops are in the mix.

North Korea will fire off any remaining nuclear weapons. The U.S. may respond with another salvo. It may not.

The exchange will stop. The war will end in a couple more days.

Radiation from Korea will travel east over the Pacific Ocean fallout will being landing on the west coast and Hawaii after about two-three days, depending on the wind. While the United States will have used mostly air bursts, North Korea could use more ground bursts, yielding more radioactive fallout.

China will move into North Korea and take over the area. South Korea will remain a separate country.

In the United States, there will be political chaos.

South Korea will be devastated, but will likely survive.

Japan will change its constitution and allow its military to engage in overseas conflicts.

Discounting the radiation damage, North Korea will find life no better under Chinese control as they were under the Kim dynasty.

=========================================

This was a very brief look at what a war in Korea could look like. There are many factors that can influence these events. This scenario was based on what we know of North Korean abilities as well as their philosophy, as well as the current political climates in South Korea and the United States.

It is our belief that a war in Korea is coming. If not soon, then soon enough.

The DEFCON Warning System is a private intelligence organization which has monitored and assessed nuclear threats against the United States by national entities for over 33 years. It is not affiliated with any government agency and does not represent the alert status of any military branch. The public should make their own evaluations and not rely on the DEFCON Warning System for any strategic planning. At all times, citizens are urged to learn what steps to take in the event of a nuclear attack.
 
Part 1 of my response:
DEFCONWarningSystem said:
continual threats against the South and the United States itself
This is inaccurate. An accurate statement might be "frequent promises of nuclear retaliation if attacked by USA/ROK, conventionally or otherwise." DPRK has never threatened to simply attack, but instead reaffirms its intention to retaliate if attacked.
DEFCONWarningSystem said:
North Korea, fearing an invasion or pre-emptive strike by the United States, elects to strike first.
DPRK understands that it would suffer tremendous losses. It also understands that it would be attacking what many regard as the world's sole superpower. This might be comparable to Poland invading Germany at the start of WW2, recognizing a German attack was inevitable. That's not impossible, but it is unlikely. Granted, Poland did refuse to cede Danzig, knowing the consequence would likely be war, but Poland was confident that the British and French would protect them. Had Britain and France not extended their protection to Poland, then Poland would have likely ceded Danzig as demanded. One might then argue that DPRK believes PRC and perhaps RF will protect them, but the fact of the matter is that Britain and France may have withdrawn their support for Poland had Poland attacked Germany first, and PRC/RF may withdraw their support for DPRK if North Korea preemptively attacks.

DPRK would then be very unlikely to launch a preemptive attack, recognizing it could probably only realistically hope for a pyrrhic victory, perhaps in the form a stalemate, where DPRK survives, the peninsula isn't reunited, and DPRK is left in a far weaker position than it began the war in. Furthermore, USA/ROK will likely prepare its attack in such a manner that DPRK won't be sure that it's inevitable. This will be simplified by the historical fact of large the war games, and by the large amount of USA/ROK personnel and equipment at all times staged, poised against DPRK. Consequently, even if USA/ROK prepare an attack, the signs will probably be regarded as possible evidence of an imminent first strike, not conclusive evidence. DPRK will then be unlikely to initiate a first strike, unless perhaps it gains assurance that PRC and/or RF will support it.
DEFCONWarningSystem said:
The United States, along with South Korea, fearing a surprise nuclear attack by the North, decide to attack first.
America fears nothing. It isn't fear which would lead America to attack. USA would attack because it believes it can win. A weaker DPRK (in the case of a limited war) or destroyed DPRK (in the case of large-scale war) would either reunite the peninsula under the US hegemony and the western order, or it would be a step toward that, comparable to Gulf War I.
DEFCONWarningSystem said:
Military sites in South Korea will also be heavily damaged. Those close to the DMZ could be destroyed or rendered unusable within the first hour.
North Korean heavy armour will pour across the DMZ, though will suffer significant casualties from Western air power.
"Over, under, around and through," as with the Germans in relation to the Maginot Line. The tunnel network beneath the DMZ may be extensive. Many such tunnels have been discovered existing into structures within ROK. DPRK can reduce its losses by utilizing these tunnels efficiently, negating USA/ROK airpower while over time dismantling that airpower. The quantity of DPRK units crossing the DMZ over land may be surprisingly low, at first. This is especially true as sustained fire against the DMZ could be necessary to prevent USA/ROK from crossing. DPRKs naval assets will also attempt to insert forces by sea. So, "over and around," though later "through," but never "over" obviously, at least not until the war's basically already "over" itself. USA/ROK will maintain air superiority until that point, unless DPRK has far better anti-air capabilities than one would anticipate - particularly with regard to range and quantity.
DEFCONWarningSystem said:
North Korea will be unable to hold any ground they capture
They'll be able to hold ground as they progress southward, at least sufficient to maintain supply lines, but this is a more long-term concern and DPRK appears to be betting on PRC and perhaps RF for long-term concerns. Based on everything seen, it would appear that DPRK won't prioritize holding very much. DPRK will be primarily concerned with attacking, humiliating, disrupting - a very asymmetric strategy is likely. DPRK has, I believe, 200000 special operators? If DPRK is sufficiently wise, these won't be used conventionally. This will be comparable to fighting a powerful invasion force, while simultaneously fighting intense insurgency. Total War and COIN simultaneously. The SPECOPS element should be concentrating on sabotage, disruption, humiliation, raiding, and raiding, while the conventional force will press forward, holding what it needs not what it wants, and annihilating what it doesn't need. Thus, overwhelming USA/ROK in a rapid, intense, difficult to understand way.
DEFCONWarningSystem said:
The United States will begin pouring forces into South Korea as well as making incursions into North Korea
If it can. DPRK anti-air, anti-ship and submarines may prevent naval invasions and air assaults, while artillery may prevent ground invasions. Even if USA/ROK do gain significant access to DPRK, and especially if this access is gained via DMZ, it will be an extremely long process. DPRK will sabotage the infrastructure - it's rigged its bridges for detonation, even built pillar along roadways to be collapsed, blocking the road. Meanwhile, DPRK will endlessly ambush and raid these elements attempting to negotiate both the very difficult terrain, and the obstacles being created. Logistics would be a nightmare. USA/ROK would take tremendous losses, and progress would be far too slow, allowing ROK to fall and/or meaningful PRC/RF aid to DPRK. By the time USA/ROK gets anywhere, it might be PLA they're facing, if the war isn't lost by the time they get there anyway.
DEFCONWarningSystem said:
They will not, however, move close to the border with China for fear of bringing China into the conflict.
During the original Korean War, PRC wasn't in nearly the position its in today to compete with America. Nor was America the threat it is today, nor was DPRK the strong, stable state it is today, nor was PRC (communism) as alone in the world as it is today. PRC was very hesitant, and when that hesitation elapsed, PRC achieved a decisive victory, demoralizing the west and expanding the egos of the Chinese. They won't likely wait for America to approach the border this time. They will move to reinforce DPRK perhaps immediately, and will evaluate DPRKs progress. PRC will become increasingly confident the longer the conflict spans, the more damage DPRK inflicts, and PRC will become increasingly active. Even if DPRK fails to achieve its objectives, PRC is highly unlikely to allow Pyongyang to fall before becoming directly involved. I could go into detail, but I'd be increasingly unconfident, especially with regard to the order of things. However, you could certainly expect PRC to utilize PLA, PLAN, PLAAF and PLARF at some point, to include the interdiction, blockading, A2/AD, raids against US bases in region. Where, RF will likely cease the opportunity in Eastern Europe, and perhaps also provide direct aid to DPRK by land and air. A lot of training and reinforcing in Eastern MD.
DEFCONWarningSystem said:
This strategy will fail and China will assist North Korea
I agree that this is likely.
DEFCONWarningSystem said:
The United States must make a choice as to whether to block China from sending reinforcements and supplies to North Korea or to allow the northern border to remain open
USA won't be in a position to control that. Even if it could, this would lead rapidly to direct war between USA and PRC.
DEFCONWarningSystem said:
North Korea will use its nuclear arsenal
Or they might not. They're not much of a nuclear deterrent after you've used them. DPRK might though, or DPRK might attempt to use them as tactical weapons rather than strategic weapons. Quite the threshold the cross, in any case. If USA/ROK inflict heavy damage to DPRK, meaningfully invade DPRK, or strongly jeopardize the continuity of the government of DPRK, then DPRK will become increasingly likely. This isn't to say however that DPRK won't launch early or immediately, especially if concerned it will lose this ability later. There's advantages and disadvantages either way. More information is needed on Kim and his top brass. We know surprisingly little about them.
 
Part 2 of my response:
DEFCONWarningSystem said:
Seoul will be destroyed
Would certainly be very demoralizing, and it could be necessary to prevent loyal DPRK citizens and soldiers from seeing how "incredible" ROK was prior to being conquered. Could create instability. Still, Asian cultures in particular like to conquer other nations without destroying cities if possible. As Sun Tzu said, "In the practical art of war, the best thing of all is to take the enemy's country whole and intact; to shatter and destroy it is not so good." Destroying Seoul would also displace a great many people, where it's easiest to occupy a people if they're concentrated in a city rather than scattered due to the destruction of that city. The more spread out the people are, the more spread out your forces are. DPRK may destroy Seoul, and it may not. There are advantages either way.
DEFCONWarningSystem said:
China may back away at this time once nuclear weapons are used
The Chinese don't regard nuclear weapons in the same way which Americans do. PRC is likely to be less impressed by nuclear weapon use than one might think. PRC could continue its efforts without blinking. The nuclear war is between DPRK and USA, unless PRC/RF reason this would be an excellent moment to initiate the next Great War in full, or perhaps escalating to deescalate.
DEFCONWarningSystem said:
Pyongyang, however, will be bombed mercilessly.
This bombing may also be less merciless than you think, if DPRK's air defense is better than assumed, and especially if PRC reinforces this air defense. Pyongyang is also a popular center, and USA wishes to avoid attacking these. Pyongyang can't be the next Dresden. If it can, then it might as well be the next Nagasaki instead. If USA moves to create massive destruction in Pyongyang, I'll bet this will come in the form of missile strikes, be they conventional or nuclear - regardless of any attempts to draw the civilian population out of the city first. Unless, perhaps, the air defense is quite weak. It should be noted though that if DPRK nukes a population center, not retaliating with nuclear weapons could be just as destabilizing in America as in fact retaliating with nuclear weapons. This will be especially true if considerable Americans are nuked by DPRK, let alone an American base, let alone an American city. Some people wanted to nuke Mecca after 9/11. Many people would want to nuke Pyongyang.
DEFCONWarningSystem said:
If the United States has not responded to the initial nuclear attack
This would be a great way to produce a coup against yourself, be it military or Amerimaidan.
DEFCONWarningSystem said:
North Korea will fire off any remaining nuclear weapons
In a scenario as you propose, DPRK is likely to deploy nuclear weapons against Japan, possibly to include SLBMs. Propaganda suggests that Kim Jong-un is malevolent, "evil" even. While, he's observed laughing frequently, and these laughs appear to be genuine and with some intensity. Kim Jong-un may then have a strong, "twisted" sense of humor. He may target Hiroshima and Nagasaki specifically, finding this humorous and ironic. This is especially true if Japan participates in the war, which is probable. Other potential nuclear targets include the obvious, such as ABM sites in ROK, Seoul, Tokyo as well as Honolulu and Los Angeles if within range. Well-known population centers of significance.
DEFCONWarningSystem said:
China will move into North Korea and take over the area. South Korea will remain a separate country.
The safest place for DPRK soldiers to be will be populated ROK cities. If DPRK can capture and occupy these cities prior to any nuclear exchange, then regardless of any destruction in the north, DPRK will in theory emerge victorious, entrenched in the south's cities. America can't deploy nuclear weapons against Seoul nor other ROK population centers. At least, not without DPRK launching from within or near ROK cities. Even then, attacking Seoul with nuclear weapons might be politically impossible. The South Koreans are America's allies. America can't sacrifice the South Korean population. They're friendly hostages, or "human shields." They have to be "rescued." Killing them would be perceived similarly to "destroying a village to save it." Meanwhile, it will be very difficult to remove DPRK from ROK once entrenched within the cities. The war is lost, if we're talking about large occupation forces. It's just a question of how long it takes America to realize that.

If you'd like to use any of the information I've provided, you may do so. Can be a joint article between the both of us, if you're interested in anything I've said. I'm sure you're very interested in, at very least, my response to your last quote.
 
Navarro said:
If you'd like to use any of the information I've provided, you may do so. Can be a joint article between the both of us, if you're interested in anything I've said. I'm sure you're very interested in, at very least, my response to your last quote.

Oh, sorry, I didn't see your reply before I posted it.

At least here your response can be seen in full.
 
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