Chances of Civil War in January of 2021. United States.

DirtyDevil69

Power Poster
How does everyone feel about the chances of a civil war taking place in the United States whether its Donald Trump who takes office or Joe Biden that takes office. In my opinion, i see some degree of extreme unrest, more than we have been seeing daily for the last 80 days in Portland and other cities across the US. I don't think the right or the left is willing to accept that this will be a fair election. The right is claiming the left is rigging the election, and the left is claiming the right is rigging the election. Mail in ballots, vote in person, russia, google, etc etc. Both sides think there are multiple factors taking place in this election and will sway the election to one side or the other.

If ive posted in the wrong thread, go ahead and move it. Haven't been on the site in quite a while.
 
G

Guest

Guest
Eh not likly. No more than when Obama was elected.

But if things where to happen, it wouldn't be statehood against statehood but brother against brother. A war between the people not state against state.
 

joaqweri

Active member
i expect a crisis no matter who wins, as if trump wins there'll be mass protests in practically every city and if biden wins trump will do what he can to cling to power. but i'm more worried of what will happen if trump wins.
 

CreepyMonkey

Active member
The American public is too apathetic to go to war over the Constitution.

Funny you should bring this up. My wife and I were talking about this just the other day.
My analysis group was talking about this too. We decided our definition of civil war was too narrow. If civil war means two or more domestic organizations with opposing philosophical beliefs are clashing violently in multiple locations/states, this is already happening. By that definition we are already embroiled in a 'civil war'.

It is a relatively unorganized movement, but it is getting more organized all the time.

This is not going to stop just because someone is elected/not elected. Once the opposite side realizes their guy didn't win, there's going to be upset and bad feelings. The opposing side will be celebrating and the losing side will be seething. They're not going to suddenly throw up their hands and say, "Oh well, we lost!", and go back to business as normal.

My predictions -

If the Left wins: Those on the Right will accuse, yell, scream and throw tantrums. Nothing will happen because they believe in the rule of law. The Left will be emboldened and continue the same tactics they have to get what they want because "it worked".

If the Right wins: The left will go bananas with apoplectic rage accuse, yell, scream and throw tantrums. The same things that are happening now will continue to happen only ten times worse.

Either way, these issues aren't going away with an election cycle. They're here to stay and there is no vaccine for philosophical differences.
 

deltaman

Member
If the Left wins: Those on the Right will accuse, yell, scream and throw tantrums. Nothing will happen because they believe in the rule of law. The Left will be emboldened and continue the same tactics they have to get what they want because "it worked"..

I think you're being way too generous to the extreme right in this prediction. The capabilities behind organized groups on the extreme right are something to worry about. There is a breaking point with everyone and the more displaced from the center of the political conversation, the quicker people reach this. "It's considered a freedom until it's something that's disagreed with", comes to mind with these types, regardless of side of the isle.

Following the law is one thing. Following the idea of what the law "should be" is another, and I'm sure we'll have our fair share of hard / extreme right-wing responses to the extreme left-wing activities ongoing so far in 2020. Normality of extreme posturing & rhetoric is something to keep watch, regardless of what side pours the most fuel on the fire at the time.
 

DirtyDevil69

Power Poster
I think you're being way too generous to the extreme right in this prediction. The capabilities behind organized groups on the extreme right are something to worry about. There is a breaking point with everyone and the more displaced from the center of the political conversation, the quicker people reach this. "It's considered a freedom until it's something that's disagreed with", comes to mind with these types, regardless of side of the isle.
This is a good point. Ive seen militias of extreme right who have military level kits and im sure wont be afraid to use it when the fighting kicks out in the extreme. Ever since Antifa, BLM, and anarchists LARPing became a thing, right wing LARPing has responded, people with baseball bats, body armor, and shields just going at eachother.

Unfortunately, if violence does break out between extreme leftists, and extreme rightists the cities will burn, and the rightists will come out on top, due to just their capabilities. I mean hell, most are ex military of some caliber, than those ex military guys train these militias in military tactics.

Than after said scenario, i see these extremists demanding change of law or constitution, than violence between the military and these guys.

In my eyes, i only see more escalation and more violence occuring from here on out. I dont think things are going to get better, especially in the cities.
 

DirtyDevil69

Power Poster
What recently happened in Kenosha, WI sure doesn't help things.
It happened 2 hours from me. I live about 15-20 minutes away from madison. When ever my girlfriend and i go to my parents house to visit, he has pictures of down town madison where he replaces windows as a job. From what ive heard, its still pretty tension filled, even during the day. Its 2:30 AM as im posting this and im still up just reading current updates and watching the streets. My guns are cleaned and loaded. I wont participate in any violence in the streets, but i will protect my home.

Today at work i heard the rioting and looting started sunday night, and as of monday night, a small national guard unit got sent to kenosha to re-enforce the first responders. Its supposed to be even worse tonight, and i cant predict the future, but this isnt going away. People are going to keep disrespecting the police, disobeying orders, and threatening them which will soon lead to more shootings.

From what i understand, alot of the cities we have in wisconsin are currently burning because of the kenosha incident, than the george floyd incident before this.

This country is a mess. Its going to keep getting worse. Id suggest to all of you, buy a gun, learn to use it. Lock down your homes every night, and pray youll never have to use it.

The people looting and rioting dont care about you, they dont care about your family, they dont care about the health and well being of anyone.

This isnt because of the incident and the shooting. These arent peaceful protests that lead the way like martin luther king jr. These are kids, pampered like cats. Given participation trophies their whole lives, expecting to get everything for free, and wanting to see this country in anarchy.

Load up.

Its going to get violent.
 

willrod1989

Active member
I would honestly argue that the United States is already dealing with a low level insurgency that's been going on for a few years. The violence in this country honestly reminds me quite vividly of the intermittent armed conflicts I've witnessed in Colombia and Mexico. While it's difficult to say if this country will descend into a full scale civil war, it's definitely a possibility.

Unfortunately, our Presidential system of government is inherently unstable and prone to political gridlock, especially compared to the Parliamentary system. It should be no surprise that the Presidential system is mostly found in Latin America, where every country with a strong President (including the United States), has experienced a coup, civil war, or brutal dictatorship.

We are quickly turning into a banana republic.
 

Travis The Dragon

Well-known member
If things got too bad, wouldn't the national guard and military be called in to help straighten things out? And as far as all of the extremists go who would be at war, isn't that still a pretty small number of people compared to everyone else? I would think most would stay out of it.
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
And as far as all of the extremists go who would be at war, isn't that still a pretty small number of people compared to everyone else? I would think most would stay out of it.

As I mentioned earlier, Americans are too apathetic to fight for the Constitution.

You are right. It's a pretty small number who are out there, and it is incredibly localized.
 

CreepyMonkey

Active member
As I mentioned earlier, Americans are too apathetic to fight for the Constitution.

You are right. It's a pretty small number who are out there, and it is incredibly localized.

Though the active violence is not as bad as it was directly after George Floyd, it hasn't stopped. Also, it's far more widespread than most people have any idea of. However, I agree, the only people continuing active violence at this time, for the most part, are hardcore (with the notable exception of Kenosha).

With all that said;

- The overall violence and looting is indicative of deeper systemic problems in US culture and varied systems of governance.
- There will be no civil war in the classic North vs. South sense but ideologically there is already one occurring.
- Until and unless the United States finds a commonality they can all rally around, the cultural and ideological gaps will continue to widen.
- If no answer is found to the culture gap (i.e. a common belief system, goal, etc.) the USA will continue to decay leaving it vulnerable in any number of ways.
 

ds91

New member
This is my first post, so go easy on me, but this topic is basically how I ended up here so I've been thinking about it a lot.

I think regardless of who wins, we'll see at least the same basic level of unrest we have now. There's no putting the genie back in the bottle, so we can only hold steady or get worse from here.

That being said, I have to agree with others that point out that civil war isn't going to be what we think of when we picture the 1800s. There aren't two clearly defined sides; there's so many different interests, with sub-factions and sub-sub-factions that I don't see it playing out that way. Throw in the geographic diversity (it's not like "all the slave states are in the south") and it's a recipe for something way messier.

The only way I see true "civil war" occurring, and not just everyone taking pot shots at their formerly friendly neighbors, is if there's a secession by a couple of major states, or a group big enough to make a difference. For example, if CA or TX secede because they've had enough of it, there's going to be 1) a mass migration in and out of people who agree or disagree with the position of that state, and 2) a huge battle over the finances and natural resources they're taking away from the federal government. At that point, it comes down to who's in charge federally, and whether or not the military sticks with them when they decide to "take back" a state.

Alternatively if, say, the plains states and part of the midwest break off as a group, you'll have the same natural resource issues and a potential overpopulation problem (I predict more conservatives would try to move into those states than liberals would leave) that would overwhelm the "small town" infrastructures in those places, leading to more unrest.

Plus, at any time during any of these scenarios, another nation could come in and try to take over territory they see as weak, maybe by offering financial or military assistance to the state governments... and then it's not a civil war, but a world war.

So let's be optimistic and hope the looting is the worst thing we see for a while.
 

willrod1989

Active member
This is my first post, so go easy on me, but this topic is basically how I ended up here so I've been thinking about it a lot.

I think regardless of who wins, we'll see at least the same basic level of unrest we have now. There's no putting the genie back in the bottle, so we can only hold steady or get worse from here.

That being said, I have to agree with others that point out that civil war isn't going to be what we think of when we picture the 1800s. There aren't two clearly defined sides; there's so many different interests, with sub-factions and sub-sub-factions that I don't see it playing out that way. Throw in the geographic diversity (it's not like "all the slave states are in the south") and it's a recipe for something way messier.

The only way I see true "civil war" occurring, and not just everyone taking pot shots at their formerly friendly neighbors, is if there's a secession by a couple of major states, or a group big enough to make a difference. For example, if CA or TX secede because they've had enough of it, there's going to be 1) a mass migration in and out of people who agree or disagree with the position of that state, and 2) a huge battle over the finances and natural resources they're taking away from the federal government. At that point, it comes down to who's in charge federally, and whether or not the military sticks with them when they decide to "take back" a state.

Alternatively if, say, the plains states and part of the midwest break off as a group, you'll have the same natural resource issues and a potential overpopulation problem (I predict more conservatives would try to move into those states than liberals would leave) that would overwhelm the "small town" infrastructures in those places, leading to more unrest.

Plus, at any time during any of these scenarios, another nation could come in and try to take over territory they see as weak, maybe by offering financial or military assistance to the state governments... and then it's not a civil war, but a world war.

So let's be optimistic and hope the looting is the worst thing we see for a while.

Again, I would argue that the opening stages of the civil war have already begun. The situation in the United States is quite similar to what I have experienced firsthand in my youth down in Colombia and Venezuela in the late 1990s and early 2000s. You have widespread civil unrest, with many different semi-organized factions and lone fanatics trying to stir up violence. Society is completely polarized, and the country is ruled by a president who, at best is apathetic to the violence, and, at worst, is actively encouraging it. The national legislature is completely gridlocked, with both political parties engaging in a zero sum campaign for absolute control.

Add to this the fact that we have economic collapse, a global health catastrophe, and a historically oppressed people who are crying out for justice, with other people who feel that their way of life is threatened, and we have a recipe for total chaos. Some people are being fed completely false narratives, and are being radicalized to prepare for actual open combat as we speak. Look at both QAnon and Antifa, and I need go no further.

While I feel that, for the most part, law and order will prevail across the majority of the nation for the time being, we will continue to see more frequent incidents of insurgency and domestic terrorism building in intensity. Whatever happens after the elections, however, depends on the response of the federal government, and whether the majority of the American public views the results as legitimate. As with anything, I would hope for the best, but plan for the worst. As for me, I will be in Mexico City during the week of the election, despite the pandemic.
 

TheChrome

Power Poster
Who knows. One of the signs of the end times according to Luke 21:9 depending on the translation is: commotions, insurrections, seditions, disturbances, revolutions. The Greek word literally means RIOTS, and that is the term that is used in many non-English translations such as Hebrew.

I don't remember a time when there has been as many riots and protests. I wasn't alive in the 60's, but it seems now the protests rival even those times.
 
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Shmooglavoue

Active member
Who knows. One of the signs of the end times according to Luke 21:9 depending on the translation is: commotions, insurrections, seditions, disturbances, revolutions. The Greek word literally means RIOTS, and that is the term that is used in many foreign translations such as Hebrew.

I don't remember a time when there has been as many riots and protests. I wasn't alive in the 60's, but it seems now the protests rival even those times.

I caution against drawing too many parallels between religious texts and real events, to the point of assuming that actual "end times" are upon us. It's easy to lose sight of the context of events in a historical scope, so current events always seem more serious than past events. It should also be noted that we have far more media these days then the past. Instead of being limited to printed press, we have television, radio, and internet, so information can spread much faster then ever before.

At the same time however, I don't think ancient religious texts should be completely discounted. They are, at the very least, accounts from people in the past who had a dramatically different culture and worldview then us, but nevertheless attempted to pass on knowledge and wisdom as they understood it. And while technology may have changed dramatically, human nature has changed very little. Hence why you can see parallels in the events leading up to Armageddon in the Bible, or events leading up to the Kali Yuga in the Hindu Vedas, to more modern decline of civilization into a stage of chaos.

In other words, they may not be warning about a 'literal' end of the world, but the decline of a civilization into anarchy before order is once again restored.
 

TheChrome

Power Poster
I caution against drawing too many parallels between religious texts and real events, to the point of assuming that actual "end times" are upon us. It's easy to lose sight of the context of events in a historical scope, so current events always seem more serious than past events. It should also be noted that we have far more media these days then the past. Instead of being limited to printed press, we have television, radio, and internet, so information can spread much faster then ever before.

At the same time however, I don't think ancient religious texts should be completely discounted. They are, at the very least, accounts from people in the past who had a dramatically different culture and worldview then us, but nevertheless attempted to pass on knowledge and wisdom as they understood it. And while technology may have changed dramatically, human nature has changed very little. Hence why you can see parallels in the events leading up to Armageddon in the Bible, or events leading up to the Kali Yuga in the Hindu Vedas, to more modern decline of civilization into a stage of chaos.

In other words, they may not be warning about a 'literal' end of the world, but the decline of a civilization into anarchy before order is once again restored.
I understand what you are trying to say. That is a common reasoning. I strongly disagree. It is easy to conclude that the things outlined in the bible won't take place because of the many false predictions that have taken place over time. However, the bible outlines the apathy associated with people in the last days by saying "For just as the days of Noah were, so the presence of the Son of man will be. For as they were in those days before the Flood, eating and drinking, men marrying and women being given in marriage, until the day that Noah entered into the ark, and they took no note until the Flood came and swept them all away, so the presence of the Son of man will be." (Matthew 24:27-29)

So, in short people will be going about their business and not really paying attention or acknowledging what is going on.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
I understand what you are trying to say. That is a common reasoning. I strongly disagree. It is easy to conclude that the things outlined in the bible won't take place because of the many false predictions that have taken place over time. However, the bible outlines the apathy associated with people in the last days by saying "For just as the days of Noah were, so the presence of the Son of man will be. For as they were in those days before the Flood, eating and drinking, men marrying and women being given in marriage, until the day that Noah entered into the ark, and they took no note until the Flood came and swept them all away, so the presence of the Son of man will be." (Matthew 24:27-29)

So, in short people will be going about their business and not really paying attention or acknowledging what is going on.
I think you will find that few people on this site can be accused of apathy or not really paying attention, regardless of theological belief structure. I put no stock in any ancient religious texts whatsoever, other than their obvious historical significance, but that doesn't mean that the end of the world is not a real thing that can happen at any moment, whether it be by natural or man-made means.
 
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