China India fall winter 2021

Obreid

Power Poster
I read things like this and wonder WTF is China thinking.
Somethings up in China their either desperate or they setting the board to make a play. I cannot decide which.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
Why not both?
Oh it could be both your right. But what’s driving this action now. If is just a strategic play which leaves me to believe they won’t do something risky. They have a decided upon goal which would likely be limited to a few specific things.
If it’s desperation then I’m not so comfortable. The whole wounded animal thing. Not meant as disparagingly but analogy.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
I really can't see China handling so many war fronts at the same time, I think they are more concerned with getting Taiwan back than of the other fronts. Looks more like waving the left hand for attention while the right hand does the snatch and grab.
I concur.

Poland/Belarus is a distraction from Russia/Ukraine.
China/India is a distraction from China/Taiwan.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
I disagree about China. Taiwan is a matter of national pride but little economic gain because much of it would be destroyed. Land acquisition to the west for belt & road plus water resources are economic drivers China wants badly.
For China to successfully seize Taiwan they would have to rely on the west completely folding. And in the last six months the west has been more vocal in support and resources than the last decade. Covid and Hong Kong has woken up a large portion of the world.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
I disagree about China. Taiwan is a matter of national pride but little economic gain because much of it would be destroyed. Land acquisition to the west for belt & road plus water resources are economic drivers China wants badly.
For China to successfully seize Taiwan they would have to rely on the west completely folding. And in the last six months the west has been more vocal in support and resources than the last decade. Covid and Hong Kong has woken up a large portion of the world.
I don't know if I agree with this or not. I believe it would be possible for China to conduct an invasion of Taiwan in such a way that destruction is limited to military and government targets, not manufacturing and production.

Plus, China's threats to use nuclear weapons against Australia and Japan have to be taken seriously.

Finally, if I am right and China moves on Taiwan at the exact same moment Russia moves on Ukraine, I think the western response to both will be chaotic, disorganized, confused, and ineffective, allowing both Russia and China to conduct operations with minimal resistance for at least 72 hours, if not longer.

I think the only way Taiwan would be completely destroyed is through the use of nuclear weapons on their territory, which I do not see happening under any circumstances, even if China is facing defeat.
 
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