China/Taiwan September 2021

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RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
I'm starting a specific thread for discussion and analysis of a potential invasion of Taiwan by China, largely based on this article:


Everything China has been saying and doing for the past several months points to an invasion of Taiwan, something that would require one of the most massive military mobilizations in history to be successful. Think Operation Overlord squared.

We know why.
We know where.
We know how.

What we don't know is when.

I try very hard to stick with facts in evidence, but something has been nagging at me for a long time telling me that a Russian incursion into SE Ukraine and a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will occur simultaneously to maximize confusion and chaos and minimize any potential military response from the US. If correct, that points possibly to this autumn, just before winter hits. A move into Ukraine by Russia just before winter would make any Ukrainian moves to push back much more difficult than they already would be due to the harsh weather conditions, and Russia can then use the entire winter to firmly entrench their positions, giving them a land bridge to Crimea come spring 2022. If I am right, that means the Chinese invasion of Taiwan would also occur this autumn.

I freely admit I have no facts to prove this theory; it's just a feeling and I could very easily be 100% wrong.

Open discussion on my theory and any facts supporting it or disproving it are welcome, as well as general discussion regarding an eventual invasion of Taiwan.
 

Soldiereye

Member
I agree with you on this. Too many coincidences where both are concerned and something major is in the works on multiple fronts. (Perhaps more than you speak of too). The number one threat in any war on all involved is the weather. However, as you have shown above, it can also be used to the advantage of long, planned out strikes by adversaries. I just hope everyone has their ducks in a row and are prepared for what’s brewing!
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
All those ships. I wonder how many Taiwan will sink before China lands...if any?
If I were China, the first wave of the attack would be airstrikes and missile strikes to take out anti-ship missile batteries. All the sorties they've been flying into Taiwan's ADIZ have become so regular the Taiwan military might become complacent and be caught off guard when it's the real thing, which is exactly what I would do in China's position.
 

MichaelH

Active member
One would assume the equivalent of the air sorties in the ADZ will be happening more and bigger in the naval arena. PRC's life gets a lot simpler if Taiwan freaks and sinks a couple Chinese "exercise" participants.
 

MichaelH

Active member
You would also assume a massive airborne infantry component, but to be honest, I don't know much about China's capabilities there. That would be one way of minimizing some of the logistics, but the scale is too big to do a primary airborne op. But if they can establish quick aerial supremacy that would be a pretty decent option to try and envelop some of those better defensive points.
 

Saguenay

Active member
To answer for this post title: If China
is convinced that the USA will not get involved in
militarily support Taiwan, the invasion will take place.
Same thing for Ukraine, if Russia is convinced
that there will be no US | NATO military intervention,
they will too. Both at the same time, maybe!

In my opinion, the USA will turn in on itself
in order to resolve their internal problems.

China wants to reclaim lost territory (Taiwan)
during a military defeat, Russia wants to resume
the territory lost (Ukraine) during the breakup of the USSR.

I hope that it will not come to the idea of Russia to resume
Alaska in the USA, sold at a discount in the USA. LOLL
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
The difference is that Poland is right next to Ukraine.
I don't think Russia will move for all of Ukraine. At least not this year. Their goal is a land bridge from Russia to Crimea so they don't have to rely on the bridge over the strait. I don't think they'll move any further than that.
 

DarkNoon

Power Poster
I don't think Russia will move for all of Ukraine. At least not this year. Their goal is a land bridge from Russia to Crimea so they don't have to rely on the bridge over the strait. I don't think they'll move any further than that.
Remember that Russia is one or two skips away from collapse, revolt, or military rebellion against the real fur coats who run the country.

The biggest trigger would be national embarrassment I.E a failed military campaign. So Russia will unlikely gamble the chance now. Its a different Russia,... hell different world now since the beginning of turf war with Ukraine.

Putin will and has to tip toe and the man never slips sadly, classic old Soviet brick head. Logically now or the near future are out of the question for Russia if they do want to pursue more territory.
 
D

DucknCover

Guest
I think both China and Russia will fullful their plans, Russia will wait for China to see the outcome of the war with the U.S.
Depending on the chinese losses Russia can calculate the costs of taking Ukraine in case NATO (USA) will intervene.
 

rudemarine

Power Poster
I'm starting a specific thread for discussion and analysis of a potential invasion of Taiwan by China, largely based on this article:


Everything China has been saying and doing for the past several months points to an invasion of Taiwan, something that would require one of the most massive military mobilizations in history to be successful. Think Operation Overlord squared.

We know why.
We know where.
We know how.

What we don't know is when.

I try very hard to stick with facts in evidence, but something has been nagging at me for a long time telling me that a Russian incursion into SE Ukraine and a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will occur simultaneously to maximize confusion and chaos and minimize any potential military response from the US. If correct, that points possibly to this autumn, just before winter hits. A move into Ukraine by Russia just before winter would make any Ukrainian moves to push back much more difficult than they already would be due to the harsh weather conditions, and Russia can then use the entire winter to firmly entrench their positions, giving them a land bridge to Crimea come spring 2022. If I am right, that means the Chinese invasion of Taiwan would also occur this autumn.

I freely admit I have no facts to prove this theory; it's just a feeling and I could very easily be 100% wrong.

Open discussion on my theory and any facts supporting it or disproving it are welcome, as well as general discussion regarding an eventual invasion of Taiwan.

I think you're right but add the possibility of North Korea starting their antics first as a distraction for both of those moves would be in the cards. Especially with Biden in office and his serious miscalculations in Afghanistan. The confusion will be massive and we will only be able to engage in one theater with the right amount of forces.

We will be forced to save Europe again because Germany has not lived up to it's NATO obligations and can only commit one tank brigade to the rapid reaction force which is pathetic. They can't even protect themselves.

Poland is the only strong force in the theater but they could be quickly cut off if the Russians felt they needed to take Poland back to stop them from aiding Ukraine.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
No nothing will happen in large scale actions. Like everything in last 50 years. It will continue to be small steps, small bites.
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
The fall of Afghanistan is a clear signal to China that the U.S. is incapable of defending an asset.

At least, that is how China will see it.

If I was China, this would be a great time to move on Taiwan, if it is there intention to invade.
 
D

DucknCover

Guest
If I was China, this would be a great time to move on Taiwan, if it is there intention to invade.
China is not so stupid, they know the U.S. has now finally figured out that they was trolling them in Afghanistan all the time.
They left the strategic worthless Afghanistan to save more important strategic partners for at least some time....
So there are perhaps only two main strategies left.

1. China comes under pressure and has to act quickly before the U.S. will focus more on Taiwan than ever. (risky)
2. China plays the long game, it will outdwarf the U.S. Navy and continously tighten it's grasp on the Pacific. (my bet)
 
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