China threats nuclear first strike on Japan

Saguenay

Active member
China and Russia are increasingly threatening:
Russia threatens UK
China threatens Australia and Japan
And then the cyberattack.

I have the strong impression that these 2 countries have taken
their decisions to go to war, they no longer fear NATO | USA.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
This is an interesting change of tone on the forum.
I have always believed the China striking out militarily a minimal chance. Yes they will harass and try to get away with small incremental belligerences.
But large expeditionary entanglements no.
That said my greatest fear with them would be reactionary strikes, like their intervention in Korea.
China has always fed the domestic propaganda of their military prowess. It can’t always be viewed as a message for outsiders. Preparing the consciousness of your population that we are going to go to war is always part of the steps a nation must do in the lead up to war. You have to train your citizens of the necessity just as you train the military the how’s.
is that what China is doing now?
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
China has always fed the domestic propaganda of their military prowess. It can’t always be viewed as a message for outsiders. Preparing the consciousness of your population that we are going to go to war is always part of the steps a nation must do in the lead up to war. You have to train your citizens of the necessity just as you train the military the how’s.
is that what China is doing now?
I think China is starting to believe their own feldercarb. And that makes them dangerous.

If they made that threat 10-15 years ago, I would have laughed it off.

Not today.

I still think it's a bluff. China isn't going to nuke Japan.

But I am less certain it is a bluff than I would be those 10-15 years ago.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
I think China is starting to believe their own feldercarb. And that makes them dangerous.

If they made that threat 10-15 years ago, I would have laughed it off.

Not today.

I still think it's a bluff. China isn't going to nuke Japan.

But I am less certain it is a bluff than I would be those 10-15 years ago.
The whole backs against the wall - now or never thing.

Pride cometh before the fall, and it applies to us as well as it does to our adversaries.

It’s important to believe and understand your ethos, but it’s more important to live it
 
D

DucknCover

Guest
Just to keep you informed that the situation is not under control and can change rapidly.


The mainland has strategic dominance in the Taiwan Straits. It can deploy overwhelming military capability if needed, and has the firm will to use this strength in a showdown over the Taiwan question. The US and Taiwan are trying to create an illusion that a democratic Taiwan won't accept unification in any form and that the US is open to using its military prowess to defend the island. Sending a US Air Force cargo plane is edging near to the bottom line of the mainland, and is an attempt to deter the mainland and disturb people's clear understanding of the region.

The US has the strongest overall national military strength, but most of it cannot be deployed in the Taiwan Straits technically, and the US has no public support or national will to use that military strength to defend Taiwan. China doesn't provoke the US, but Taiwan is part of China. In the Taiwan Straits, China fully has the moral right to dominate the situation. In this region, the mainland's Anti-Secession Law has supreme authority.

The mainland holds the initiative as to when and how to punish them as it can synchronize the choice with our strategy regarding the Taiwan question to achieve the best result.
The US and the island of Taiwan are clearly aware that the mainland has formed the determination to use force when necessary, so when they are using their "salami-slicing" tactic they are also very cautious in order to avoid real damage.
When will the mainland fly its military planes closer to Taiwan island or even fly over the island, or launch missiles over the island to deter Taiwan authorities? Our answer is: any time.
Since the US has moved to the step of landing a military cargo plane in Taiwan island, escalating the situation to a tipping point of military action, each step they take may trigger military friction and confrontation. They must understand the mainland is much better prepared for this kind of clash, both in terms of real action and willpower.

We advise the US and the island of Taiwan not to misjudge the situation and not to underestimate our determination and will to punish their provocation. They must be prepared to face a sudden blow.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
Taiwan needs to approach this like Israel. If they over fly Taiwan they need to light them up.
Its an unarguable violation and nations will be forced to choose.
Change public opinion
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
Just to keep you informed that the situation is not under control and can change rapidly.

The PLA has always had strategic dominance over Taiwan. They can lose a million people in a war and it would barely register as a blip with their population. This is nothing new.

What's changed is we no longer have world leaders who are terrified of nuclear conflict. Since Taiwan cannot withstand a full-scale invasion from mainland China, even with full US military support, Taiwan would either fall or the US would have to resort to using tactical nuclear weapons over advancing Chinese troops in the Strait. Once that nuclear threshold is crossed, any semblance of control over the situation will immediately evaporate into thin air.

Right now the situation is still under control, meaning both sides have the ability to scale down their rhetoric and military movements. China issued an ultimatum, and the US - unfortunately - has responded to that ultimatum by moving strategic assets into the AO. So this is an escalating crises, but nothing we haven't been through before. China's response to our response will tell us a lot about where this is heading.
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
I am not seeing the U.S. using tactical nuclear devices to defend Taiwan. The U.S. can move whatever they want into the area. It isn't happening.

Even if China starts attacking U.S. forces, it will remain conventional unless China does something stupid like using nukes themselves (which they said they would on Japan) or if China starts attacking U.S. bases or civilian population areas.

But I think generally that a Taiwan war will remain conventional.
 
D

DuckNCover

Guest
We both know that Taiwan will lose the conventional war,
which means that the government of Taiwan must increase its defense capability with nuclear weapons.

Military planners in Washington pushed for the White House to prepare plans to use nuclear weapons against mainland China during the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1958, newly leaked documents appear to confirm.
Although it is already public knowledge that the Eisenhower administration debated whether to use nuclear weapons to deter China from attacking Taiwan, the documents appear to reveal the extent of the planning for the first time.
Taiwan pursued a number of weapons of mass destruction programs from 1949 to the late 1980s. The final secret nuclear weapons program was shut down in the late 1980s under US pressure

US and China relationship's 'most dangerous' point is Taiwan - nuclear war fears​

 

MichaelH

Active member
If I were a Taiwanese who didn't like the idea of becoming Hong Kong 2, I would acquire a nuclear capability of my own. It's a terrible, terrible gamble, because if you can't do it very quickly and very quietly, it will probably provoke the invasion you don't want. But long term there is no other path to remaining independent for them.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
Then call it a major loss and every small nation that can afford to will begin the process of Nuclear armament.
It will be a loss on several levels
 

rudemarine

Power Poster
And they achieved their principle goal as well.
Think of how ignorant it was for them to try that at the time. We had nukes and they did not have one. That just shows you how F-ing crazy they are!! Mac was pushing Ike to drop 100 nuclear weapons on China for attacking our troops in North Korea. Mac screwed up by asking for such an nuclear onslaught but Just imagine if Ike would have been brave enough to drop even ten!!! The world would be a lot better off today. We would have a free Korea and China would be truly democratic. Nobody would think about messing with us today, that's for dam sure.

This below is my opinion!
The world needs to start taking China's threats seriously and making them pay. The best thing we can do is go have some meetings with Putin and make Russia a member of NATO after he promises to turn against China and sign non agression agreements with the rest of Europe. Putin has wanted to be in NATO since he took power but the Nazis in Germany's intelligence, MI6 and the CIA need their future war between the US and Russia. They have been trying since the end of WW2 to get their revenge on both nations. Bush 41s father was a friend to Hitler and was caught sending Germany money, years later his son helps form the CIA so its not a stretch when you consider Russia was invited by NATO to train with us a few years after the Soviet Union died but were soon told they were no longer allowed to participate.
 

rudemarine

Power Poster
A per-emptive nuclear strike? I have a hard time believing even China doing that.
You bet your bottom dollar they will. They will hit Okinawa first as that is where our main base is and they will see what Japan does after that. They will have to because they know we will come to defend Taiwan ( if Biden is not in charge that is ). If we start moving our fleets to help Tiawan i expect North Korea will pop one or two off in South Korea as a distraction to divide our focus and priorities. Until we get a strong President back in the White House China is a major threat.
 
D

DucknCover

Guest
Think of how ignorant it was for them to try that at the time. We had nukes and they did not have one. That just shows you how F-ing crazy they are!! Mac was pushing Ike to drop 100 nuclear weapons on China for attacking our troops in North Korea. Mac screwed up by asking for such an nuclear onslaught but Just imagine if Ike would have been brave enough to drop even ten!!! The world would be a lot better off today. We would have a free Korea and China would be truly democratic. Nobody would think about messing with us today, that's for dam sure.

This below is my opinion!
The world needs to start taking China's threats seriously and making them pay. The best thing we can do is go have some meetings with Putin and make Russia a member of NATO after he promises to turn against China and sign non agression agreements with the rest of Europe. Putin has wanted to be in NATO since he took power but the Nazis in Germany's intelligence, MI6 and the CIA need their future war between the US and Russia. They have been trying since the end of WW2 to get their revenge on both nations. Bush 41s father was a friend to Hitler and was caught sending Germany money, years later his son helps form the CIA so its not a stretch when you consider Russia was invited by NATO to train with us a few years after the Soviet Union died but were soon told they were no longer allowed to participate.
The world would be a much more dangerous and radioactive place, the Soviet Union would have obliterated the United States right after this because they knew they would be next.
And Putin is playing on both sides to win, nobody has forgotten the Cold War and Putin is an ex KGB officer already participating in a hybrid war against NATO and U.S. allies.
Only a Russia without Putins infuence can be a way back to a normal.
Until we get a strong President back in the White House China is a major threat.
That's not enough. China fears the U.S. military but they know that they are not going all in for it.
The U.S. will lose Taiwan because they are not willing to sacrifice enough for it.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
And what do you think will be the US reaction? Do you think the US will just sit back and take it?

Biden will react. He's old school. He will.
Have to factor in the political implications as well. Officials will do unexpected things depending of the political winds. Have to wave the flag if things are going poorly before an election.
 

william

Active member
China will over run Taiwan I don't think there is any doubt of that. But, are they willing to pay the economic, political, and military price to do it. As far as the use of nuclear weapons goes I always assumed WWIII would begin with an escalation of nukes starting with tactical low yield weapons used on advancing enemy formations. I was wrong! I watched a very interesting series on the history channel called Atomic Age Declassified, Atomic Age Declassified (TV Series 2019– ) - IMDb that reveled that the policy of the United Stated use of nuclear weapons if it ever came to that was to fire our whole arsenal at once and be done with it! Now I don't know if this is still policy but any enemy even thinking about the use of nuclear weapons against us our our allies should think long and hard about doing that! I don't think there will be any tit for tat when it comes to the use of nukes.
 
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