China threats nuclear first strike on Japan

DarkNoon

Power Poster
Not anymore. Now the policy is "Escalate to Deescalate".

Yeah. Let's see how well that will work out.
It is funny in a sick way we think we can wright on paper what we intend to happen and somehow believe words as if they have power itself. But in reality the world is very black & white metaphorically and no matter what is on a piece of paper, like all pieces of paper before mean nothing when the words are challenged or the pin drops.

It's all or nothing with nuclear weapons and there isn't a way to use them in any kind of typical warfare no matter what leaders words are or what was written on paper. Warfare doesn't change for words or meer papper.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
There is no question China would win without a massive multi-nation response.
How quick they could accomplish it though is the question. Yes they have a million man army but landing them on an island would be extremely hard and costly to both sides. They would have to soften up Taiwan’s defenses.
They would start with sappers to attack key military targets that rocket and air attacks could not neutralize. Possibly direct attacks on leadership.
They cannot just show up and storm the beaches from the outset.
So block-aid it and dare the west to break it is one option. Leadership assassination and commence a rocket and air missile attack would be the second option to begin with.
A protracted and bloody attack on a densely packed civilian population would be very hard to defend against the international pressure.
My bet is block-aid, the Chinese are patient if nothing else. But even that has its limits.
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
It's also important to understand that a lot of China's forces are not exactly thrilled to throw their lives away for the government.

Due to China's "One Child" policy (now beginning to soften), a lot of these military people are the last-of-the-line of their families. If they die in combat, that's it.

Thus a good number of them aren't really interested in dying for their country.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
I’m mean let’s face it a nuclear first strike is basically a game of 52 card pick up. In almost all scenarios it’s nothing but a gov/leader deciding “to hell with it”.
Thats a reaction of someone with nothing left to lose.

And yes some leaders have been pushed to doing something that heartless. Remember Hitlers refusal to surrender as he was being closed in on from all sides and Germany was being bombed and shelled at will. He was punishing his people for failing the fatherland.
And generals continued to take orders till almost the bloody end.
And there is nothing rational in any of that but like people states do not always make rational decisions.
 
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DucknCover

Guest
China has to destroy Taiwans airdefense at first, second target is food production.
China then starts to sink all supply ships and airplanes heading towards Taiwan.
In a couple of months Taiwan will run out of food, starving soldiers can't fight and Taiwan has lost.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
China has to destroy Taiwans airdefense at first, second target is food production.
China then starts to sink all supply ships and airplanes heading towards Taiwan.
In a couple of months Taiwan will run out of food, starving soldiers can't fight and Taiwan has lost.
China is never going to target food production on Taiwan. That would be counterproductive, not to mention time-consuming and a guaranteed global condemnation of China from the UNSC.

If - and that's a big "if" - China does this, they are going to want to do it as quickly and cleanly as possible. The longer it takes, the more of a PR nightmare it's going to be for the CCP, who needs the rest of the world to be willing to purchase products made in China. They're already on thin ice with the world due to SARS-CoV-2.

So, strategically, this is not going to be a long, drawn-out bloody affair. It will be a massive, sudden invasion, completed quickly, probably before the rest of the world has much of a chance to react or respond.

Also keep in mind that "war is the art of deception." Ask yourselves what else could they be planning while they attempt to keep attention focused on Taiwan?
 
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DucknCover

Guest
China is never going to target food production on Taiwan. That would be counterproductive, not to mention time-consuming and a guaranteed global condemnation of China from the UNSC.

If - and that's a big "if" - China does this, they are going to want to do it as quickly and cleanly as possible. The longer it takes, the more of a PR nightmare it's going to be for the CCP, who needs the rest of the world to be willing to purchase products made in China. They're already on thin ice with the world due to SARS-CoV-2.

So, strategically, this is not going to be a long, drawn-out bloody affair. It will be a massive, sudden invasion, completed quickly, probably before the rest of the world has much of a chance to react or respond.

Also keep in mind that "war is the art of deception." Ask yourselves what else could they be planning while they attempt to keep attention focused on Taiwan?

China doesn't have to give a damn about western opinions at this point. It already didn't when it was threatening Japan with nukes.
China will go into total war mode and anyone who opposes them will immediately regret it.
Their primary target is to drive the U.S. Navy out of the Pacific and to annex every country in this part of the world.
They know that any invasion will be else too costly to accomplish.
So the (nuclear) first strike will not be against Japan, but against the U.S. bases, vessels, carriers in the region.
 

MichaelH

Active member
China is never going to target food production on Taiwan. That would be counterproductive, not to mention time-consuming and a guaranteed global condemnation of China from the UNSC.

If - and that's a big "if" - China does this, they are going to want to do it as quickly and cleanly as possible. The longer it takes, the more of a PR nightmare it's going to be for the CCP, who needs the rest of the world to be willing to purchase products made in China. They're already on thin ice with the world due to SARS-CoV-2.

So, strategically, this is not going to be a long, drawn-out bloody affair. It will be a massive, sudden invasion, completed quickly, probably before the rest of the world has much of a chance to react or respond.

Also keep in mind that "war is the art of deception." Ask yourselves what else could they be planning while they attempt to keep attention focused on Taiwan?
They have invested very, very heavily in hard assets abroad. They have a long way to go, but they are taking very seriously the idea of acquiring everything from mines and oil abroad to future military installations. It's very much a marriage of old time colonialism and new wave power projection.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
They have invested very, very heavily in hard assets abroad. They have a long way to go, but they are taking very seriously the idea of acquiring everything from mines and oil abroad to future military installations. It's very much a marriage of old time colonialism and new wave power projection.
Indeed, with an extremely heavy focus on Africa. Most people in the West do not understand that China is much better at playing the long game than we are.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
China doesn't have to give a damn about western opinions at this point. It already didn't when it was threatening Japan with nukes.
China will go into total war mode and anyone who opposes them will immediately regret it.
Their primary target is to drive the U.S. Navy out of the Pacific and to annex every country in this part of the world.
They know that any invasion will be else too costly to accomplish.
So the (nuclear) first strike will not be against Japan, but against the U.S. bases, vessels, carriers in the region.
Everything I stated is well-researched fact. Everything you stated is unsubstantiated opinion. China would be incredibly stupid to launch a nuclear first strike against the US under any circumstances, and they are not stupid. The only country that stands a chance of successfully pulling off a nuclear first strike against the US is Russia, and they're not stupid either.

You really need to stop prematurely turning this crisis into WW3. We have been through many worse crises than this. We're not there yet. Maybe we will get there with this crisis; maybe we won't. But overreacting doesn't help anyone.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
“Japan Exception Policy”
Interesting change thou, that and the mention of not just of the international situation changing but “things changing inside their country”.
Curious to me that they would mention that. One would think a nation addressing a foreign threat would mention national solidarity and strength not domestic change.
curious. Personally I believe the CCP is nervous. Their economy is hurting like everyone’s and they are cracking down on various internal groups that are not toeing the line.

But it warned the international "situation" now is changing and "our country is in the midst of a major change that has not been seen in a century and all political policies, tactics and strategies must be adjusted and changed in the midst of such a major change."
But it warned the international "situation" now is changing and "our country is in the midst of a major change that has not been seen in a century and all political policies, tactics and strategies must be adjusted and changed in the midst of such a major change."


The video threatens, "In order to protect the peaceful rise of our country, it is necessary to make limited adjustments to our nuclear policy. We solemnly put forward the 'Japan exception theory.'
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
So the (nuclear) first strike will not be against Japan, but against the U.S. bases, vessels, carriers in the region.
Let me chime in here by saying that there isn't a snowball's chance in Hell that China is going to nuke U.S. assets.

They've invested heavily in area-of-denial weaponry designed to sink U.S. ships. They don't need nukes. China is absolutely right that the Americans have no appetite to go to war over Taiwan. And certainly no appetite for heavy casualties.

Yes, China is perfectly willing to lose a few million screaming Chinamen in a war. But those are just peasants. What China isn't willing to lose is Beijing. Xi and his pals love the life of luxury they have and they aren't giving it up, not even for T'aipei. Not when they can get Taiwan and keep Beijing intact by staying conventional.

That nonsense they spouted off at Japan is just that. They aren't nuking Tokyo any more than they are nuking Honolulu. It's just China making more noise because they know they can get away with it. If the threat doesn't work, they've lost nothing. If it does work, hey one combatant out of the game.
 
D

DucknCover

Guest
That nonsense they spouted off at Japan is just that.
It's up to China to make the next move.
I am not berating the government of the mainland.
If the U.S. isn't going to use nukes, this war is already lost.
So why aren't they just leaving then? :rolleyes:
 

DarkNoon

Power Poster
So why aren't they just leaving then? :rolleyes:
Because even a 1 percent chance of US getting involved isn't worth it to the CCP.

Which we may have failed Ukraine, but this will just prove the US resolve even more because of Ukraine / Russia. EVEN more so with Biden.

If you want to talk about backing rhetoric and propaganda and words from world leaders,... we should all fear Biden from retaliating against China in any kind of First Strike immediately WITHOUT the slightest hesitation ditto for Russia or other US strategic enemies.
 

DarkNoon

Power Poster
we should all fear Biden from retaliating against China in any kind of First Strike immediately WITHOUT the slightest hesitation ditto for Russia or other US strategic enemies.
Please Read Carefully:

Biden may be easy to poke fun of due to age but he grew up in a time where US military show of forces & good old American resolve triumphs over dictators and communism. I know I am from that time and I am sure a lot on here are too.

So if anything we should fear Biden making geopolitical decisions based off the old world, or old system. Dictators and communist governments are very emboldened. Unfortunately in the recent 21st century a lot of American adversaries have obtained nuclear weapons & the means to deliver them to American Homeland.

So an old approach to geopolitics could end in great disaster with Biden as it did with Trump as well.

It's time for old geezers like me,.. as they say can't teach old dog new tricks, the President should at least be under the age of 66 the national retirement age. Because simply put the world just twenty years ago is not the same anymore geopolitically, so why should people govern with old mentalities geopolitical at least in a very rapidly changing world.
 
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MichaelH

Active member
The other thing is that these calculations do change. I do not think we would risk much for Taiwan and I do not see any reason to predict change in that view. But events have a way of surprising us and upsetting expectations. Suppose China does something very heinous in the cyber realm, maybe something meant to inflict minor damage that ends up killing a few dozen people in the wrong place. Suppose the way the initial "crisis" plays out between China and Taiwan fundamentally changes sentiments. These things do happen and it's not always easy to predict. So even if China knows for sure that the US is soft today, they cannot guarantee that will be true on Friday, even if they're planning to invade on Thursday.
It is also true that we are sometimes guilty of portraying China as some sort of vaguely evil but perfectly rational entity that doesn't make mistakes and always seizes on every opportunity. Well, the fact of the matter is they've got a billion people, a ton of natural resources, and their rebellious province is still sitting there. They are a formidable adversary, but every time we think of them as an omnipotent overmind, we should also remind ourselves that it would be very surprising if a nation with such resources weren't a superpower, and yet somehow they've suffered lots and lots of defeats and setbacks in the face of much smaller opponents.
 

DarkNoon

Power Poster
I tried my hardest to keep up and understand in my field of work but even me at 66 started to slip. Started basing decisions off of things I already know or learned. But past experiences now a days before the 2000's seem to be completely irrelevant in making decisions today geopolitically......

I do have to say meeting and giving advice to the new generation or at least younger than me, we are in good hands. Very smart bunch of people leading the way diplomatically.

Best way I can describe it is the best of the old word values and best of the new world experiences.
 
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rudemarine

Power Poster
There is no question China would win without a massive multi-nation response.
How quick they could accomplish it though is the question. Yes they have a million man army but landing them on an island would be extremely hard and costly to both sides. They would have to soften up Taiwan’s defenses.
They would start with sappers to attack key military targets that rocket and air attacks could not neutralize. Possibly direct attacks on leadership.
They cannot just show up and storm the beaches from the outset.
So block-aid it and dare the west to break it is one option. Leadership assassination and commence a rocket and air missile attack would be the second option to begin with.
A protracted and bloody attack on a densely packed civilian population would be very hard to defend against the international pressure.
My bet is block-aid, the Chinese are patient if nothing else. But even that has its limits.
NATO would smash through a Chinese blockade like a 5 year old does to cardboard building blocks in preschool. Tiawan is a dam fortress. Dr.Evil wishes he had an island so heavily defended. Their airforce will swarm out of their mountain bunkers like a bunch of pissed off hornets.
 
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