China to conduct major large-scale military drill simulating seizure of Taiwan-held island

Drumboy44

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
The Chinese military is planning to conduct a large-scale landing drill off Hainan Island in the South China Sea in August to simulate the possible seizure of the Taiwanese-held Pratas Island in the future, Chinese sources familiar with the matter have said.

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army is becoming increasingly concerned about the growing U.S. military presence in the South China Sea, and such a drill could escalate tensions. The U.S. Navy said on Thursday it had sailed a guided-missile destroyer through the sensitive Taiwan Strait.

Pratas Island, located in the middle of the route from China’s military base on Hainan Island to the Pacific Ocean, is strategically important for China’s advance into the Pacific Ocean. China’s first domestically built aircraft carrier, the Shandong, was also deployed last December to the base on Hainan, increasing pressure on the Chinese military to capture the islet.

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The Southern Theater Command, which is in charge of protecting the South China Sea, will mobilize an unprecedented level of forces, including marines, landing ships, hovercrafts and helicopters.

The island, known by the Chinese as Dongsha Island, is home to a small airfield used mainly by the Taiwanese military.

Maj. Gen. Lin Wen-huang, who heads an operations and planning office at the Taiwan Defense Ministry, was quoted by Taiwanese media as saying that the ministry is monitoring movements of “hostile forces,” adding that it has contingency plans in place for the South China Sea and that work to strengthen combat readiness and defense preparedness in the area will not stop.

U.S. electronic warfare aircraft have frequently been flying near Pratas Island to gather intelligence on the Chinese military, with some reports recording 13 flights in April alone. U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has also been beefing up relationships with the administration of Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen, and China regards the U.S. military presence as “joint military conduct with Taiwan.” Tsai will be sworn in for her second and final term on Wednesday.

 

KimPossible

Power Poster
Time is running out how? The more time passes, the more China builds up. Time is on China's side.
Perhaps but with a world where people get sour just hearing the name China, I'm sure China feels pressed hard against a wall as Obreid mentioned. So logically I would feel too as well Mr Winnie the Pooh (Xi) may miscalculate or miss read situations that may occur.

Side note China is estimated by the Federation of American Scientists to have an arsenal of about 260 total warheads as of 2015. So that is more than enough to knock out America with it's Asian allies & maybe India if India decided to make a move. So... any confrontation with China is very disastrous.

Edit: Spelling mistakes
 
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CreepyMonkey

Active member
Perhaps but with a world where people get sour just hearing the name China, I'm sure China feels pressed hard against a wall as Obreid mentioned. So logically I would feel too as well Mr Winnie the Pooh (Xi) may miscalculate or miss read situations that may occur.

Side note China is estimated by the Federation of American Scientists to have an arsenal of about 260 total warheads as of 2015. So that is more than enough to knock out America with it's Asian allies & maybe India if India decided to make a move. So... any confirmation with China is very disastrous.
Depends on how accurate their ICBM technology is.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
Depending upon how real and deep the anger is with China internationally will determine how much manufacturing returns to China. If it’s bad enough or the CCP estimates it to be bad enough they could mid-calculate.
The only real change that will come to China will come from inside China. Thus their survalience system is on steroids and on overdrive.

Kind of like media and social media “international corporations” working so hard to manage the narrative here in the US.

Will and can the chines population revolt and overthrow the CCP is anyone’s guess.
If they don’t there will eventually be war OR future western gov will completely capitulate to China.
End of story for a century or two.
 

KimPossible

Power Poster
Depends on how accurate their ICBM technology is.

China's in service Dongfeng 31 ICBM:
The DF-31 (CSS-10) is China's newest road-mobile, solid-fuel ICBM. DF-31 carry a single 1,000 kt warhead, or up to three 20-150 kt MIRV warheads. An improved version, the DF-31A, has range of 11,000+ km. The DF-31 was developed to replace many of China's older ballistic missiles.
  • Accuracy of DF-31 is expected to be around (300 m) CEP

China's in service Dongfeng 41 ICBM:
The DF-41 (CSS-X-10), capable of being armed with a single, three, six or even ten MIRV warheads, is China's newest addition to its nuclear arsenal. With an estimated range between 12,000 - 15,000 km, it is believed to surpass the range of the US's LGM-30 Minuteman ICBM to become the world's longest range missile, if not comparable at the least.
  • Accuracy of DF-41 is expected to be around (100 m) CEP

While the US only in service ICBM accuracy for comparison is:
As of 2020, the LGM-30G Minuteman III version is the only land-based ICBM in service in the United States and represents the land leg of the U.S. nuclear triad. An estimated greater than 9,700 km range.
  • Accuracy of Minuteman-III is expected to be around (240 m) CEP
 
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joaqweri

Well-known member
I beginning to believe the CCP has decided their back is against the wall.
I'm not sure if they think they're up against the wall, but both the US and CCP are trying to make bigger and bigger shows of force, which could lead to a naval skirmish in SCS or a chinese aircraft getting shot down over taiwan
 

rudemarine

Well-known member
The Communist consider Taiwan to be a slap in the face to the mainland and they have made a mandate for it to be completely under mainland control by 2030. They have likely sped up that time frame with this virus crap.
The last time they acted this brazen in 1996 Bill Clinton sent the Independence battle group to the waters off Taiwan, now we would need 7 battle groups on top of the two that are stationed in the region just to send the same message.
 

joaqweri

Well-known member
The Communist consider Taiwan to be a slap in the face to the mainland and they have made a mandate for it to be completely under mainland control by 2030. They have likely sped up that time frame with this virus crap.
The last time they acted this brazen in 1996 Bill Clinton sent the Independence battle group to the waters off Taiwan, now we would need 7 battle groups on top of the two that are stationed in the region just to send the same message.
nonetheless, im worried some shit is gonna happen between the US and china before this year is over. Tensions ain't ever been this high, every day relations are getting worse.
 
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