I don't like the trajectory this whole east, west thing is going. Before Pearl Harbor there was allot of embargos and trade restrictions similar to what is going on now.
Couple of things to factor in there.
Chinas population is aging fast. So you might be correct something could pop off because it’s a now or never issue for China.
Since covid manufatures are leaving China. Their labor cost are rising and manufactures are not really happy with Chinas restrictions and other unspoken things. They do not have the ability to move troops at sea. They have two carriers and not a well developed tanker refueling. They don’t have any reach.
Sure they have lots of missiles and those are bad. But they don’t have a means of capitalizing on any major missile strike.
It would be a cat fight for sure don’t get me wrong. But they just don’t have the weight to capitalize on any offensive strike they launch.
In capital ships and amphibious delivery vehicles. Japan was much much stronger than China is today.
Japan had invaded and occupied much of coastal Asia and controlled much of it from Singapore Borneo to Manchuria.
So Chinas only hope is a massive missile strike and assume everyone s just going to lay down and surrender.
That’s not going to happen as the west has shown in Ukraine.
If the west had laid down and let Russia take Ukraine. The the odds of China trying something like this would be much higher.
Thankfully that hope and dream has been dispelled.
www.bloomberg.com
