Orius
Guest
There is exactly one thing that will let the coronavirus spread over the world
The quarantine-time
There are many reports about a "low" chance of higher incubation durations.
But the whole world still keep holding their quarantine-time on 2 weeks. And then we all let them travel without any watching , so they can infect others on the easiest way a virus could have.
i guess the point were we see how this epidemic ( or actually pre-pandemic) will going on isnt reached yet. There are some unserious reports from China, changing their count-system on all its cost to lower the numbers and keep the fear-level low as possible, other countries started the past 48/96 hours with higher infection-reports, test results on Corona still be absolutely random ( correct result rate is laying on 20-50% ) , advices from many countries to keep test results long as possible away from media sources and combined with a possible incubation time up to 40-50 days! ( someone got a positive result 40 Days after travelled out of Wuhan ) there is a real high chance of undetected hotspots of Infections.
Actually i believe there is a real threat on a pandemic status of this Virus and i will start prepping asap ( next week) for at least 1 Month. my personal estimate: we will not see the way how this virus will go until first week of April. there is no exactly known fact about its spreading-level or about its mutation-level.
As a reference-value i would take the 13th of february where China announced a peak of nearly 15.000 new infections.
wait 1 1/2 Months and we will see. On Defcon Level Value for a possible Deadly global pandemic i would say its Defcon 3.
Defcon 4 started on 20th of January where the first other countries report cases.
Defcon 3 started on 4th or 19th of february where the diamond princess got an infection spike / South Korea gets daily a high increasing level of confirmed cases.
If you think about Defcon 3 on a nuclear threat its like " there is any chance to deescalate the situation but the dangerous level is high and there is an advice to prepare at least a little" the same thing is actually going on with Corona. There is any chance to handle the outbreak , but the chance will significant drop down while the danger is rising. Big cities are on quarantine , that sounds a little similar to the readiness to get evacuated or be ready to seek a safe place on a possible missile attack (so Defcon 3 )
The quarantine-time
There are many reports about a "low" chance of higher incubation durations.
But the whole world still keep holding their quarantine-time on 2 weeks. And then we all let them travel without any watching , so they can infect others on the easiest way a virus could have.
i guess the point were we see how this epidemic ( or actually pre-pandemic) will going on isnt reached yet. There are some unserious reports from China, changing their count-system on all its cost to lower the numbers and keep the fear-level low as possible, other countries started the past 48/96 hours with higher infection-reports, test results on Corona still be absolutely random ( correct result rate is laying on 20-50% ) , advices from many countries to keep test results long as possible away from media sources and combined with a possible incubation time up to 40-50 days! ( someone got a positive result 40 Days after travelled out of Wuhan ) there is a real high chance of undetected hotspots of Infections.
Actually i believe there is a real threat on a pandemic status of this Virus and i will start prepping asap ( next week) for at least 1 Month. my personal estimate: we will not see the way how this virus will go until first week of April. there is no exactly known fact about its spreading-level or about its mutation-level.
As a reference-value i would take the 13th of february where China announced a peak of nearly 15.000 new infections.
wait 1 1/2 Months and we will see. On Defcon Level Value for a possible Deadly global pandemic i would say its Defcon 3.
Defcon 4 started on 20th of January where the first other countries report cases.
Defcon 3 started on 4th or 19th of february where the diamond princess got an infection spike / South Korea gets daily a high increasing level of confirmed cases.
If you think about Defcon 3 on a nuclear threat its like " there is any chance to deescalate the situation but the dangerous level is high and there is an advice to prepare at least a little" the same thing is actually going on with Corona. There is any chance to handle the outbreak , but the chance will significant drop down while the danger is rising. Big cities are on quarantine , that sounds a little similar to the readiness to get evacuated or be ready to seek a safe place on a possible missile attack (so Defcon 3 )