I knew it that's been my theory on the common cold and corona virus in general. You only ever catch it once and it lays dormant in the body until the right conditions , to become active again. Meantime pharmaceutical companies and doctors make a fortune by not releasing the truth.
I'm sorry- I should have been more specific. I'm so used to communicating with my colleagues. So after the epidemic peaks, it enters the "deceleration" phase, where the number of new cases each day begins to decline. Our models are showing that the deceleration phase will end around May 30 for Alabama. After that point, there may continue to be some sporadic cases, but sustained community transmission will have ended at this point.So if I am understanding this projection correctly, as an example, Alabama will peak on April 18 but their peak won't end until May 30?
That is correct- there is some evidence that in a portion of cases, they end up going through a period of time where they relapse, and the infection begins to worsen after improving. At this time, it appears that the cases in question were from people who hadn't quite cleared the initial infection. It is also important to note that in all of these cases, they had tested positive again within a few days- not several weeks. It is also unknown at this time how much virus they were shedding when they were in the dormant period. There is definitely much that remains to be studied about this virus.This is the initial reporting on the assertion of “reactivation” of the virus from Yonhap.
KCDC Director-General Jeong Eun-kyeong said the virus was highly likely to have been reactivated, instead of the people being reinfected, as they tested positive again in a relatively short time after being released from quarantine
To me personally the choice of the word “reactivated” does not imply faulty testing but dormancy, this is from the Director of the KCDC.
I hope for a speedy recovery of your brother. It does take a toll on you that is hard to describe. I am still recovering from it.I also recently heard from my brother back in Michigan. He was infected with COVID-19, but so far appears to be making a decent recovery. It has definitely taken a major toll on him! So far, his girlfriend hasn't been showing any symptoms- and he's been keeping his face covered whenever she comes anywhere nearby- as well as keeping the window open for ventilation.
Thank you for the great explanation.Just to clarify- the date of peak infections signifies when the highest number of daily infections will be reported. Afterwards, each state will enter the deceleration phase of the epidemic, with sporadic cases appearing after the "end" date. I am also happy to report that my home state of Michigan has peaked as well!
Predictions are just hypothesis based on the available data. Of course, we don't "know". No one can ever "know" the future. But we can make educated guesses based on data, biology, history, etc.But anyone smart should know any predictions are wrong and impossible to know.
We can't make models on past events because this is the first of it's kind of this scale in modern history.data, biology, history, etc.