Coronavirus April 2020

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willrod1989

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I can't stress this enough as well. Even tho testing is ramping up in each of the states it will be some time before we see any kind of reliable data.
Even with a lack of testing, we have other indicators to how the direction of this pandemic is proceeding. The CDC and most state health departments have re-tooled the sentinel provider reporting system, which is usually used for doctors to report "influenza-like illness" to report "COVID-like illness" directly to the CDC and state health departments. At this time, in addition to relying strictly on the positive results of the PCR test, we are also relying on doctors who have reported "presumptive" cases of COVID-19. In addition to this, the CDC has begun to roll out a self-screening tool, where people can check their symptoms, and this reports directly to the CDC when people indicate that they have mild symptoms.

Also, we have a pretty decent idea that around 15% of cases of COVID-19 lead to hospitalization. By using the number of people who are hospitalized with the disease, we can extrapolate how the outbreak is progressing. If the number of hospitalizations increases, for example- then we know that a certain percentage of the population will hopefully be managing their symptoms at home. If the number of hospitalizations decreases, then, most likely, the number of infections in the wider community has also begun to decrease.

The number one flaw with fixating too heavily on the exact numbers of confirmed cases is that people miss the point of following the trend. Don't forget, many of these tried-and-true methods of epidemiology have been developed as far back as the mid-1800s, before any laboratory diagnostic testing was available!
 

willrod1989

Well-known member
I hope for a speedy recovery of your brother. It does take a toll on you that is hard to describe. I am still recovering from it.
I can imagine- and I hope you are doing well! My brother says that he can tell his lungs have been damaged, for sure. He gets winded very easily just going up to use the bathroom.
 

willrod1989

Well-known member
We can't make models on past events because this is the first of it's kind of this scale in modern history.

The data is very inaccurate due to extreme lack of testing.

Lastly this Coronavirus can't be compared either to previous Coronavirus outbreaks biologically it seems, otherwise I would think we would have a further understanding of the virus and what to do.

Yes perditions are just that, a guess. But I'm saying there really is no predicting this, there not guessing, there just throwing very inaccurate numbers and dates out there based of gross calculation.

Bottom line of my'n is I wouldn't put one shred of hope or trust into any numbers or dates given to us for awhile.
I apologize for the many posts, but there are so many different threads to comment on! As you can see from my previous thread, the data isn't completely inaccurate- but, like anything involving statistics, there is always a margin of error. Here in California, for example, we have been running models assuming that we're detecting only 10% of cases through PCR testing. However, following the trend is very important. Also, the dates that I have shown for each state are assuming the worst case scenario in our peak infection rate- and even at that, we're assuming that only 50% of the population is adhering to social distancing guidelines.

Also, please understand that our forecasts can and definitely do change as more real-world data is entered into our models. There is simply no way of knowing the precise number of people who are infected at any given time. If that were the case, we could easily round everyone up, isolate them, and have this over with in time for Easter dinner. However, epidemiology is all about following trends, not fixating on specific numbers.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
I was just pointed to an article about sampling sewer systems to extrapolate the number of asymptotic cases in a community. Viris samples are being collected at waste water treatment plants in the US and Europe and sampled to this end.
It’s especially relevant topic for me being that I work at a waste water treatment plant.
The CDC has not issued any elevated procedures for waste water treatment plants.
But with the community fecal deposits all being pumped to my destination it heightens my cautiousness while collecting nightly samples.

Sigh just one more thing not to worry about😕
 

krzepice1976

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
“It's said the outbreak is more serious than that in #Wuhan.”

A video has been circulating online showing shops and schools closed in a village in southern #China due to a suspected second #CCPVirus outbreak. The closures have caused fear among the residents. https://t.co/w3WuyJqhj1
 

krzepice1976

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
#BREAKING🚨: Researchers believe that the #coronavirus outbreak in Italy originated from Germany. The virus is constantly mutating, therefore, using a software, they created a genome family tree.


It showed, among other things, that the Italian #coronavirus stemmed from the first documented German #COVID19 case which occurred on January 27, on one of the employees at the Webasto company in Munich.
h/t @Xy5Z89
 

krzepice1976

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
As Hubei province lifted its lockdown, residents expressed concern that the outbreak isn’t under control. In the first 5 days of April, only 1 confirmed case was reported for the whole province. But a resident said on April 2 that someone died the previous day from the #CCPVirus. https://t.co/v9RK4zJwc0
 

Travis The Dragon

Well-known member
Can this possibly be right? PLEASE say it is! ONLY 1,510 new cases in the USA and 74 deaths!
 

Sunshine

Member
I have heard that BNODesk only has three people updating the site. In the past few days they have been posting less often. They could be getting tired and/or burned out.
 

Drumboy44

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
The US Navy has not ruled out reinstating Capt. Brett Crozier, the former commanding officer of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt who was fired for his handling of a coronavirus outbreak, according to the service's top officer.

Adm. Michael Gilday, the chief of naval operations, told The Associated Press he hadn't decided against reinstating Crozier. "I am taking no options off the table," Gilday said.

Gilday said he hadn't yet spoken with Crozier, who is under quarantine after testing positive for the coronavirus, but that he was particularly interested in the captain's motivations for emailing the letter.

https://www.businessinsider.com/reinstating-fired-brett-crozier-navy-aircraft-carrier-2020-4
 

Drumboy44

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Peru sends troops to border with Ecuador

Several Peruvian army units have been deployed to the border with Ecuador to monitor unauthorised border crossings, as part of Lima's effort to stop the spread of the novel coronavirus. The operation is meant to prevent both Ecuadorians and Venezuelan citizens from crossing into Peru.

Units deployed include the armored cavalry brigade No. 5, the 1st infantry brigade, a marine infantry unit from the 'El Salto' naval base and others. Photos reviewed by Jane's also show AMX-13 light tanks and M113 armored personnel carriers enroute to the border.


 

Obreid

Power Poster
BNO has someone constantly updating in real time. I don't know how they do it. Must take a tremendous amount of work.
I read some background on their founders. Their both really into AI and tech in general more so than journalism. Probably scrub the web with AI or algorithms.
They have no direct investor links. CBS bought the founders twitter feed several years ago and he launched the newsfeed. CBS was the first news org that subscribed to BNO’s news feed.
 
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