Coronavirus March 2020

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Obreid

Power Poster
A billionaire buys a bunker with a view in New Zealand,
“hey it his money he can spend his money anyway he wants”.

Joe and Marsha buy extra food and keep it roatated
“OMG their just crazy preppers and all they talk about is EOW”

Stan spends his weekends camping and learning survival skills
“The guys a white nationalist and someone needs to keep an eye on him”

Mitch and Jodi are leveraged to the hilt and spend their free time at movies & going out with friends
“Their good people we really like them”

Whether it’s Overreaction or not is only ever fairly judged in end.
 

willrod1989

Well-known member
Hey everyone! Just back with a quick update. So far, epidemiological modeling shows possible sporadic cases throughout the country. So far, we have not seen nor predicted any sustained widespread transmission at this time. If and when that occurs, it will most likely show up in an unexpected, random location. Please continue your preparations and pay close attention to health authorities in your area.
 

KimPossible

Power Poster
  • Washington coronavirus patient who died was a man in his 50s, health officer says
  • 10% of coronavirus cases in Lombardy involve medical personnel, Italian officials say
  • More than 50 people linked to skilled nursing facility in Washington to be tested for coronavirus
  • CDC director tweets that agency "erroneously identified" Washington coronavirus patient who died
  • You're unlikely to get coronavirus twice, US health officials say
 

willrod1989

Well-known member
  • Washington coronavirus patient who died was a man in his 50s, health officer says
  • 10% of coronavirus cases in Lombardy involve medical personnel, Italian officials say
  • More than 50 people linked to skilled nursing facility in Washington to be tested for coronavirus
  • CDC director tweets that agency "erroneously identified" Washington coronavirus patient who died
  • You're unlikely to get coronavirus twice, US health officials say
Yes, I do wish to emphasize the last bullet point. It appears that the early reports of people contracting the coronavirus twice were due to inaccurate early testing. These early patients, for whatever reason, were showing up as false negatives. It could be that perhaps their immune systems had brought their viral loads down, only to further "rebound", or the test was faulty. The rebounding of viral loads happens quite frequently, especially in people who are older or immunocompromised due to underlying health conditions. Also interesting to note that this tends to happen frequently in a few unrelated viruses, such as Herpes, HIV, and Hepatitis B/C.
 

willrod1989

Well-known member
Also seeing some rumors that Pope Francis has possibly contracted COVID-19. The Vatican neither confirms nor denies this. He is definitely in a high-risk category, as he is 83 years old, and lost part of a lung due to illness at a young age.
 

willrod1989

Well-known member
State of Washington declares state of emergency over coronavirus.
I'm not surprised about that. Expect to see other states begin to follow suit within the next few days. I've been seeing reports about a cluster involving a nursing home in Washington. If this is the case, we can begin to see more clusters, which is a precursor to widespread transmission.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
Alright in this situation does the state of emergency. Simply avenue to emergency spending or specific directions for closeings etc.
 

willrod1989

Well-known member
Yeah, it's not a "The Sky Is Falling" moment. It's just a way to get federal money.
Yep, usually an emergency is declared before a major event begins. You see it all the time with natural disasters, such as hurricanes. It also helps coordinate response across various departments and levels of government. For example, I work directly for the State of California, but I'm also working directly with Santa Clara County Department of Public Health.

Another thing to note about these cases as well. Santa Clara County is one of the few health departments in the country that can run the PCR test for the virus independently of the CDC at this time. Therefore, it's not surprising to see cases showing up here. Where we're at right now- models show one of two things happening soon. We either see sustained transmission take off and burn through quickly, in which case we'll pretty much be done by the end of the summer, similar to SARS. Or, the more frightening prospect- cases begin to subside and then return with a vengeance in the winter, like the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

The key will be to see what happens in the Southern Hemisphere during the next few months, as they wind down their summer and begin their winter. Do we see massive transmission, or more limited community spread? If we can keep transmission limited "down under", that should help protect us from a more massive sustained wave in the fall.
 

KimPossible

Power Poster
  • There are 69 confirmed and presumptive positive cases of coronavirus in the US, CDC says
  • Ireland reports first case of coronavirus
  • Brazil announces second case of coronavirus
  • Northern California county reports fourth case of coronavirus
  • Hong Kong confirms 95th coronavirus case
  • Mexico reports fourth coronavirus case
  • 33 countries reported their first case of coronavirus in the last 9 days
  • Illinois announces another presumptive positive case of coronavirus
  • South Korea reports another 376 coronavirus cases
  • American Airlines is suspending some flights to Milan
  • First coronavirus death in Australia
  • Millions of children around the world aren't going to school. That's causing problems
 

KimPossible

Power Poster
  • China's pollution levels have dropped amid coronavirus shutdown, NASA images show
    • Images taken from January 1-20 show higher levels of nitrogen dioxide in the air. But from February 10-25, traces of the gas are hardly visible.


 

willrod1989

Well-known member
I have somewhat better news for you tonight. The WHO's report on what they observed in China came out today. Here's a summarized version of findings:

- While we are in a pandemic, we still have an opportunity, albeit much more difficult to achieve, of containment. How long this takes, and how successful we are, ultimately depends on breaking chains of transmission.

- SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19, is only transmitted via droplets and surface contamination. It is not airborne. There is also very weak evidence of fecal-oral transmission.

WASHING YOUR HANDS AND COVERING YOUR COUGHS IS ABSOLUTELY VITAL IN PREVENTING SPREAD!!!

- The primary driver of community transmission is spread among close contacts in family settings, who then go on to infect the wider community.

- Contact tracing and quarantines are essential in the early stages of an outbreak.

- Massive cordon sanitaires (lockdowns) are the only effective means of stopping widespread transmission.

- For reasons poorly understood currently, this disease does not seem to infect children under 12 years of age efficiently. Unlike influenza, children are not seen as major drivers of transmission either.

- Overall case fatality ranges from 0.7-4.0%, depending on how aggressively medical services can respond in an outbreak area.

- Case fatality rate is much higher in those who are elderly and have underlying health conditions.

- Most importantly, and I cannot stress this enough- this is NOT "just a flu", but this is also not SARS or MERS. This is a unique disease that has its own unique case presentation.

- In terms of epidemiological modelling, prepare for sporadic outbreaks to occur throughout the globe in the short-term, including in North America.

Above all, and most importantly, continue to prepare for the possibility of massive outbreaks to occur at any time which can result in disruption to your daily life.

Also interesting to note that the WHO estimated an R0 no higher than 2.5

What this means is- while this is highly infectious, it's not as infectious as earlier models might suggest. What does this mean?

It means that we still have a few weeks of lead time, with aggressive public health measures, to eradicate this virus. As long as the United States keeps up travel bans and aggressive public screening and prevention efforts, the effects in the United States won't be as severe as in many other countries.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
I agree but the WHO’s press statements at least from the higher levels have been very defensive of China’s initial response and transparency. Chastising nations who enacted travel restrictions premature and counter productive. Now everyone will have to institute quarantines internally in part because of the WHO’s reluctance to act counter to Beijing wishes.
Can or should the WHO be fully trusted.
This statement is almost a mimic of statement made by Chinese officials earlier in the week.

When evaluating information from the UN or the Chinese government call me cautious.

I especially liked the statement earlier this week from a Chinese official declaring other nations should follow their example by instituting aggressive containment policies.

My cynicism of CCP motivations and transparency unfortunately knows no bounds.
We question the the numbers from China.
I wonder if there will be an accounting of deaths for people suffering from other life threatening illnesses who could not access medical care or proper nutrition medication refills.
Being locked in your homes for a month and half will exacerbate those conditions I’m sure.

When interacting with the CCP one should always assume their actions and disclosures are malevolent.
Most nations on earth would find more common ground with a Klingon or Vulcan.
 

Yingyang

Well-known member
Health professionals around the world estimates are r0 is 4.7-7.0
In reality I am struggling to believe anything the WHO is saying as much as the rest of the world's governments. Money before panic. Also I don't see how a vaccine might work if it is mutating.
 
N

nosy

Guest
can you post some evidence to back that claim please??
Health professionals around the world estimates are r0 is 4.7-7.0
 
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