Coronavirus March 2020

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KimPossible

Power Poster
Trump says he's considering short-term quarantine of parts of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut
He took that statement back and said he is doing "strong" travel advisories instead.
 

KimPossible

Power Poster
How long down the road will we get the real numbers after this Pandemic? Years? For damn sure the numbers now are 100% false or inaccurate everywhere.
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
For damn sure the numbers now are 100% false or inaccurate everywhere.
I think the Western nations are as accurate as they can be. Many people aren't counted because they are asymptomatic or they don't recognize they even have it. Others are missed because they aren't bothering to go to the doctor. Symptoms are too mild.

Now let's switch over to Russia who may or may not be disguising numbers. tbh, I kind of thought they were being fairly transparent until I saw them cozy up to China, but I may be overeading that.

Iran was hiding numbers for a while. They may be honest by now.

China is your big liar. We'll never know the truth from them.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
It frustrates me as well but I remind myself that it not always efficient or easy for groups and agencies to collect and collate this much data from accross multiple jurisdictions and private entities.

We have the general interagency interface issues and in such a highly politicized situation as this we have agendas at work. Multiple political groups and influencers - domestic and international have vested interest to influence the reporting of the situation to their benefit.

China wants western nations to look worse than them in all this. They simply quit testing and reporting, voila! “Look western democracies have failed their people.”
It serves democrats to make the President look bad, media reports everything as a failure.
Trump responds by attacking China, media and deep state - recycle and repeat.

Some want to sell fear for the benefit of their political surrogates.
Others want/have to sell stability and calm for their benefit.

Think about it - this is no longer about the pandemic and individuals life or death.
The future of nations and more importantly who holds the power are in play here.
Powerful individuals and groups are fighting for their futures here. Truth is irrelevant to almost all of them, the lives of their fellow citizens is sadly just a casualty of that war.

I AM NOT defending this status quo.
It just is.

I searched last night to try and find out how many confirmation test individual countries have run. Most of the data reported is a week or more old accross the world.
China hasn’t reported testing # since February 23. The 20th of March was the last reporting date from the European Health Commission.
Some sources estimate the US is doing 150000 test a day currently but try and confirm that.

The politization of the pandemic will muddle everything from here on out.
Might as well take a long nap and wake up in the fall to see how it turns out.
 

willrod1989

Well-known member
Hey guys- just checking back in with everyone. I'm sorry that I haven't been on in a while. Work has been absolutely insane! I've been working about 18-20 hours a day, with just enough time to get a little bit of sleep, then back at it again. But I do have a few updates for you as to the situation here in California.

From a testing standpoint, we are just about completely ramped up with the capacity that we need to get accurate information on cases. The frustrating part is that we really could've used the capacity a few weeks ago. But, alas, hindsight is 20/20. From the epidemiological modeling that I'm working with, it looks like we will be hitting the peak of this wave within the next 2-3 weeks here in California, with cases taking a further 2 weeks after that to decline. I am very happy to report that social distancing measures appear to slowly be working. Had mitigation measures not been in place, we would probably have expected hospitals to be overrun about 2 weeks ago.

Realistically, expect for this crisis to last through midsummer before we can begin to get back to any sense of normalcy nationwide. In areas that are reaching their peak sooner, such as California, Michigan, and New York- things might start to feel better by May. However, I would caution against complacency even in those areas.
 

willrod1989

Well-known member
I think the Western nations are as accurate as they can be. Many people aren't counted because they are asymptomatic or they don't recognize they even have it. Others are missed because they aren't bothering to go to the doctor. Symptoms are too mild.

Now let's switch over to Russia who may or may not be disguising numbers. tbh, I kind of thought they were being fairly transparent until I saw them cozy up to China, but I may be overeading that.

Iran was hiding numbers for a while. They may be honest by now.

China is your big liar. We'll never know the truth from them.
The Director is absolutely correct. We've been having too many issues with a lack of testing, and I can actually confirm that this has initially lead us, at the beginning, to assume that the death rate was actually much higher than it is turning out to be. We were assuming that, without any medical treatment, the death rate was higher than we are currently projecting. However, we've begun to compile data of people using tele-health services, who may not even be getting tested for COVID-19, and this has significantly increased the number of mild cases being projected in our model.

The problem is, as the old adage goes, garbage in, garbage out. The only somewhat reliable data that we had was from the WHO joint mission to China, which seriously downplayed the mild and asymptomatic cases. The problem with China is that the numbers are nowhere near accurate, especially for mild cases. We can sit here all day and speculate on whether this was deliberate or not (personally, I think it is somewhere in between- people just don't realize how "hot" Wuhan and Hubei Province really was!), but the fact of the matter is, during any outbreak of disease, it is completely impossible to detect each and every single case, especially when the healthcare system is totally overloaded. During a particularly bad flu season, for example, clinicians only track "influenza-like illness" and report them to their county health department. It's only in very rare instances that clinicians will actually test for influenza- such as when someone is admitted to the hospital.

The number of confirmed cases is important to track the trend of an outbreak, but to look at the numbers and say "Aha! There are only 100 people infected in my city right now" and rely on that with complete certainty is grossly inaccurate. With Iran- the problem is, since they've been creaking under severe sanctions, their healthcare system just wasn't prepared to deal with a major outbreak. Especially considering that it was most likely smoldering for weeks before the government took action.

As for Russia, well- let's just say that I trust those numbers about as much as I trust their reporting on 3.6 roentgens.
 

Travis The Dragon

Well-known member
FDA issues emergency authorization of anti-malaria drug for coronavirus care

Link:
The Food and Drug Administration on Sunday issued an emergency use authorization for hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, decades-old malaria drugs championed by President Donald Trump for coronavirus treatment despite scant evidence.

The agency allowed for the drugs to be "donated to the Strategic National Stockpile to be distributed and prescribed by doctors to hospitalized teen and adult patients with COVID-19, as appropriate, when a clinical trial is not available or feasible," HHS said in a statement, announcing that Sandoz donated 30 million doses of hydroxychloroquine to the stockpile and Bayer donated 1 million doses of chloroquine.


The move was supported by the White House, part of a larger Trump-backed effort to speed the use of anti-malaria drugs as a potential therapy for a virus that has no proven treatment or cure. FDA already has allowed New York state to test administering the medication to seriously ill patients, and some hospitals have added it to their treatment protocols.

"Let's see how it works," Trump said at a press briefing on Sunday, referencing New York state's efforts. "It may. It may not."

Career scientists have been skeptical of the effort, noting the lack of data on the drug’s efficacy for coronavirus care and worried that it would siphon medication away from patients who need it for other conditions, calling instead for the agency to pursue its usual clinical trials.

Three officials told POLITICO that FDA’s planned move would facilitate more access to the drug by allowing more manufacturers to produce or donate it.


Hydroxychloroquine, which is already available commercially in the United States, is commonly used to treat malaria, lupus and rheumatoid arthritis. The drug also has been touted as a therapy for coronavirus by an unusual assortment of investors, TV correspondents and even some advisers to the White House — including some advocates who overstated their claims and credentials — and been championed by guests on Fox News.
 
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willrod1989

Well-known member
Coronavirus death rate is lower than previously reported, study says, but it's still deadlier than seasonal flu
This is true- we're running our models now based on the assumption that the death rate is closer to 1.5%

I cannot comment on the State of California's previous estimate, but let me just say that our estimate was substantially higher at one point.

I would also like to point everyone to this great resource, put out by the University of Washington. These models are similar to the ones that we're running here in California, and this will give an estimate of when peak hospitalization and death rates will arrive on a state-by-state level. I am quite pleased to see that there are some states, such as Ohio, that appear to be flattening the curve very well.

COVID-19 Hospitalization Projections

I'll try to keep you guys updated the best that I can! Also, has anyone gotten an update from Creepy Monkey? I understand they ended up contracting the virus.
 
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