COVID-19 October, 2020

RiffRaff

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
It's been a while since I've run these numbers, and it's sad that we are to the point that I can round off to the nearest million at this point. Again, these are official *reported* cases. We know the numbers are actually higher than this.

Total Covid-19 Cases Globally: 35,000,000
Total Active Cases Globally: 8,000,000
Total Recovered Globally: 26,000,000
Total Dead Globally: 1,000,000

Global Case Fatality Rate: 3.8%

Total US Cases: 7,600,000
Total US Active: 2,600,000
Total US Severe/Critical: 14,179
Total US Recovered: 4,800,000
Total US Dead: 214,280

US Case Fatality Rate: 4.3%


Assuming 90% of the American population gets infected at some point and using current CFR as a reference, approximately 13.5 million Americans will die from this virus.

The global death rate will be approximately 304 million, again using the current global CFR as a reference.


Some comparisons of major global events:
Bubonic Plague: 75 - 200 million dead
World War 2: ~84 million dead
HIV/AIDS Pandemic: ~32 million dead
World War 1: ~23.5 million dead
1918 Influenze Pandemic: ~50 million dead
2009 Swine Flu Pandemic: ~284,000 dead
2017-2018 US Flu Season: ~61,000 dead

I think we can put the "it's just the flu" bullshit to rest now.
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
It's been a while since I've run these numbers, and it's sad that we are to the point that I can round off to the nearest million at this point. Again, these are official *reported* cases. We know the numbers are actually higher than this.
Can you compare these numbers to the flu?

Edit: Ah, you did. I didn't scroll down far enough.
 
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catalystman

Active member
I think we can put the "it's just the flu" bullshit to rest now.
The only thing we need to put to rest are simple statistical analyses that fail to factoring in things such as unrecorded cases, incorrectly recorded cases and population age distribution...there is one single chart everyone needs to look at before they go any further.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/...-10000-bce-ourworldindata-series?time=1..2019

Look at the steep incline around the early to mid 1900's

You having trouble seeing the significance? how old are all these people??? what is the significance of having such a dense population of people this age?

Don't be sheep people, use your brains, like actually, literally stare at the graph for a few days and ponder it's implications.
Well known fact for those in the know that the private sector has been getting propped up for years by the public sector in many western nations, this is nothing more than a repeat of the last bail out... if you've had a COVID test, your DNA has been sequenced in association with your name on one of the biggest DNA data bases ever compiled....so many chumps in this world who just don't understand how dangerous a few sociopathic intellectuals can be...
 
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DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
did. Last line was the 2017-2018 US influenza season.
Ah, yes you did. I must not have scrolled down far enough.

But let me ask further, and you may not have an answer, but how many of the dead actually died "from" Corona virus vs how many died "with" Corona? It's been documented that deaths are being listed as Corona deaths despite Corona not being the reason they died. So am wondering how accurate the numbers are.
 

RiffRaff

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
The only thing we need to put to rest are simple statistical analyses that fail to factoring in things such as unrecorded cases, incorrectly recorded cases and population age distribution...there is one single chart everyone needs to look at before they go any further.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/...-10000-bce-ourworldindata-series?time=1..2019

Look at the steep incline around the early to mid 1900's

You having trouble seeing the significance? how old are all these people??? what is the significance of having such a dense population of people this age?

Don't be sheep people, use your brains, like actually, literally stare at the graph for a few days and ponder it's implications.
Well known fact for those in the know that the private sector has been getting propped up for years by the public sector in many western nations, this is nothing more than a repeat of the last bail out... if you've had a COVID test, your DNA has been sequenced in association with your name on one of the biggest DNA data bases ever compiled....so many chumps in this world who just don't understand how dangerous a few sociopathic intellectuals can be...
Okay, if you have a point to make, you really should just make it. The population growth of the 20th century is no big secret, and your assertion that the government is illicitly obtaining DNA samples from giving vaccines is conspiracy theory until you prove it's not.

Personally, if you are referring to me as a "sheep," or a "chump," I'm the wrong one, I assure you.
 

RiffRaff

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Ah, yes you did. I must not have scrolled down far enough.

But let me ask further, and you may not have an answer, but how many of the dead actually died "from" Corona virus vs how many died "with" Corona? It's been documented that deaths are being listed as Corona deaths despite Corona not being the reason they died. So am wondering how accurate the numbers are.
I don't have that information, but death certificates often list multiple causes of death, especially in the aged or chronically ill. If a 65 year-old has cancer, Covid, and dies from a heart attack, all three of those might be listed on his/her death certificate as COD, usually in the order of relevance or contribution according to the ME.

We know the numbers are not accurate. Governments are deliberately withholding numbers, especially China, and there are incorrect diagnoses and missed diagnoses. Unfortunately, we can only work with the numbers we have. Personally, I use the data from Johns Hopkins because they are a credible institution, but they can only report what is reported to them. Regardless, what those numbers might lack in accuracy they make for in trends. Covid-19 cases are on the rise again. Cases are exploding in Europe and on the rise in the US.

Personally, I've had it with the mental contortions people put themselves through to do anything they can to deny there is a global health crisis going on, and that it's getting worse, not better. The virus is real; the global spread of the virus is real. Even mental midgets should be able to deduce that for themselves now that President Trump has been diagnosed with it. One can argue the accuracy of the numbers all they want, but it's a waste of time. Look at the general trends since the pandemic began late last year. It's out of control. And it will continue to grow further out of control until people pull their heads out of their asses, quit trying to politicize it to their particular agenda, and start acting like they are part of the most intelligent mammal on the planet. Because right now I think a few other species might be able to lay claim to that distinction.
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
We know the numbers are not accurate. Governments are deliberately withholding numbers, especially China, and there are incorrect diagnoses and missed diagnoses.
Oh I agree, we'll never know the accurate numbers.

Personally, I've had it with the mental contortions people put themselves through to do anything they can to deny there is a global health crisis going on,
Oh, I wasn't attempting to suggest anything like that. I was just wondering if we knew real numbers. China covers up how bad it is, the US incentivizes hospitals to over-inflate numbers, a whole host of people have it but we don't know because it goes unreported. It's all a mess.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/...-10000-bce-ourworldindata-series?time=1..2019

Look at the steep incline around the early to mid 1900's

You having trouble seeing the significance? how old are all these people???
The particular chart you linked doesn't say. But anyway, don't let's jump into conspiracy. People are old because people are living longer thanks to modern medicine. Yes, some people are using the crisis to line their pockets. Welcome to All Of Human History. But it's just a bug that China irresponsibly let out and covered up. But even if China admitted to it right off, likely we'd be in the same situation we are now because bugs are hard to stop.

Nothing conspiracy about that.
 

willrod1989

Well-known member
It's been a while since I've run these numbers, and it's sad that we are to the point that I can round off to the nearest million at this point. Again, these are official *reported* cases. We know the numbers are actually higher than this.

Total Covid-19 Cases Globally: 35,000,000
Total Active Cases Globally: 8,000,000
Total Recovered Globally: 26,000,000
Total Dead Globally: 1,000,000

Global Case Fatality Rate: 3.8%

Total US Cases: 7,600,000
Total US Active: 2,600,000
Total US Severe/Critical: 14,179
Total US Recovered: 4,800,000
Total US Dead: 214,280

US Case Fatality Rate: 4.3%


Assuming 90% of the American population gets infected at some point and using current CFR as a reference, approximately 13.5 million Americans will die from this virus.

The global death rate will be approximately 304 million, again using the current global CFR as a reference.


Some comparisons of major global events:
Bubonic Plague: 75 - 200 million dead
World War 2: ~84 million dead
HIV/AIDS Pandemic: ~32 million dead
World War 1: ~23.5 million dead
1918 Influenze Pandemic: ~50 million dead
2009 Swine Flu Pandemic: ~284,000 dead
2017-2018 US Flu Season: ~61,000 dead

I think we can put the "it's just the flu" bullshit to rest now.
It's important to note the difference between Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and Infection Fatality Rate (IFR). Case Fatality Rate is used to calculate the number of known cases of a disease and compare it to the number of dead. The Infection Fatality Rate, however, takes into account the actual chances that any individual has from dying from an infection. This is much more difficult to calculate, especially with respiratory diseases, which tend to have a higher percentage of asymptomatic infection.

What we've learned so far, however, from extensive serology tests, as well as more expansive PCR testing of the general population, is that around 40% of people who are infected with SARS-CoV-2 are completely asymptomatic. While this is really bad news in terms of contact testing and tracing, it does mean that any individual's chances of dying when infected with the virus are lower. Taking into account this higher proportion of asymptomatic infections, which, by definition, don't end up dying, you can reduce the CFR by 40%, which comes up with an IFR of 2.58%.

This is still a very serious percentage, and it's estimated to be close to the 1918 Spanish Flu's IFR. Using those numbers that RiffRaff gave, we would be looking at 8.1 million Americans dead, and 182.4 million people dead globally. It is also quite noteworthy to see that the United States' Case Fatality Ration of 4.3% continues to align with the WHO's original estimate of a 3-4% Case Fatality Ratio. In terms of an Infection Fatality Ratio, they estimate it to be lower, between 1.5 and 2%, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.6 and 3%. Based on epidemiological studies of excess mortality in the early days of the pandemic, Stanford University estimates the IFR to be slightly lower, around 2.2%.

Another major factor in estimating the final death toll of this pandemic will be the effect of any possible vaccines when they're deployed. In order for a vaccine to be approved by the FDA, it needs to be effective in completely preventing the infection of at least 50% of those who are vaccinated. That proportion, we assume, would be completely immune, and would be taken out of the equation. In this example, with the remaining 50%, we anticipate the majority of those who do go on to become infected to either develop mild or moderate symptoms, with a small portion developing severe symptoms, and a much smaller portion becoming critical. This would sharply decrease the IFR down to more "manageable" levels, akin to a severe flu season. This, however, assumes that the majority of the population is immunized.

Since our original predictions have thankfully not proven to be true, I can tell you that our models at Stanford assumed a much more severe outcome. We were originally looking at a CFR of 6-8%, with an IFR of around 4%. To put that in perspective, that's twice as severe as the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic! At this point, we are "only" at Spanish Flu levels right now.
 

willrod1989

Well-known member
Ah, yes you did. I must not have scrolled down far enough.

But let me ask further, and you may not have an answer, but how many of the dead actually died "from" Corona virus vs how many died "with" Corona? It's been documented that deaths are being listed as Corona deaths despite Corona not being the reason they died. So am wondering how accurate the numbers are.
I can attest for deaths here in California, but the majority of people who have died from COVID-19 in our state have had different comorbidities. Would they have died this year from, say, coronary artery disease, or emphysema? It's definitely possible, but these comorbidities in combination with COVID-19 definitely contributed to their deaths. The more accurate way to gauge mortality from this pandemic is to look at deaths coded for COVID-19, those coded for pneumonia, and those coded for neither, and compare them to the "background" rate of mortality. As for coding someone's death certificate as a COVID-19 death, California's criteria is relatively simple- any person who is positive for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of their death, who died from ARDS, cardiac arrest, or multiple organ failure, is recorded as having died from COVID-19. Is it possible that there might be some cases that were mis-diagnosed? Absolutely, but the idea that hospitals are "pressured" to over-report mortality for COVID-19 is absurd. If anything, hospitals would want to over-report cases with a successful disposition in order to receive increased funding.

Unfortunately, epidemiology is never about exact numbers. It's about making inferences and detecting patterns based on observable trends. I know this is difficult for some people to hear, but we will never know the true number of deaths for any disease, especially with an incredibly virulent disease such as this. It is also very difficult to get an accurate number for any global totals, as every national health authority might have a different criteria in terms of recording deaths for COVID-19. I can also say, personally, with a high degree of certainty, that the death toll out of Wuhan was most likely not accurate. Whether this was done on purpose, or the result of an extremely chaotic epidemic which got out of control- we will never know.
 

catalystman

Active member
Okay, if you have a point to make, you really should just make it. The population growth of the 20th century is no big secret, and your assertion that the government is illicitly obtaining DNA samples from giving vaccines is conspiracy theory until you prove it's not.

Personally, if you are referring to me as a "sheep," or a "chump," I'm the wrong one, I assure you.
The nature of this response only hours after me posting is exactly my point.....not enough pondering....The population growth rate apparently holds big secrets because no one seems to be seeing the implications... Corona tests are identical in every way to DNA collection....one would be kidding oneself if one were to think they are not keeping that "information", and by "they" I am referring to the corporate juggernaut, AKA, "the government"...that information is far too valuable...absolutely kidding yourself... if anyone has a problem seeing the point i am trying to make go away and ponder. Align your thinking with the idea that there are people in this world that don't give one flying iota about your well being to a point of cruelty...not everyone is capable of empathy... emotion doesn't come into it, other than a tool for manipulation...
 

catalystman

Active member
..... your assertion that the government is illicitly obtaining DNA samples from giving vaccines is conspiracy theory until you prove it's not.
...I did not mention vaccines...the DNA collection is occurring through COVID testing...the fact you confused this is very telling of your previous lack of contemplation of the identical nature of DNA testing and COVID testing and testimony to the level of attentiveness people give to this...you are not alone in your views but please move forward and move quickly.

Furthermore, this level of misinterpretation is further testimony to the level of self awareness of many these days...your response contained a discourse that has been fed to you previously and lacked any notion of critical thinking on my own comments... what your comment essentially does is attempt to place my comment in with "anti-vaccine" ideology which has nothing too do with my comment...you have seemingly provided everyone here a very good proof of the point i was trying to make without actually getting the point yourself...
 
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DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
Corona tests are identical in every way to DNA collection....one would be kidding oneself if one were to think they are not keeping that "information", and by "they" I am referring to the corporate juggernaut, AKA, "the government"...that information is far too valuable...absolutely kidding yourself...
Unless you can cite some verifiable proof that the government is collecting and keeping DNA samples from Corona testing, I am going to catagorize this as conspiracy theory and not allow it on this board.
 

catalystman

Active member
Unless you can cite some verifiable proof that the government is collecting and keeping DNA samples from Corona testing, I am going to catagorize this as conspiracy theory and not allow it on this board.
if there are verifiable proofs that they are cataloging the COVID tests in association with peoples names then that is proof of my statement.... and from what i understand that would be handled by whomever is managing the contact tracing...so if you want to label COVID testing and contact tracing as conspiracy then go for it champ...Everything i have said is implicitly implied by the nature of the science... I have not conspired as to why or what they may or may not be doing with the information...
 
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catalystman

Active member
There is one testing technique being developed that relies on Surface Enhanced micro RAMAN Spectroscopy that is ethically sound...all the other ones that are currently in existence collect the DNA of the person being tested...see how a perfectly rational observation can get labelled conspiracy when it doesn't match the commentary being fed to the masses... we can call it a contact tracing data base, but from an information perspective it is a DNA Database linked with humans... absolutely hilarious, it's also a very good scaled down analogy of how top down moderation of information functions to steer a commentary on a topic in a particular direction... DANGEROUS!!!
 
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DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
we can call it a contact tracing data base, but from an information perspective it is a DNA Database linked with humans...
As you mention, it is called contact tracing. There is nothing nefarious about it. Medical establishments keep records. Unless one is to avoid the medical establishment all together, it's going to happen.

But it isn't a giant conspiracy.

If people want to complain that maybe their DNA is being collected, okay. But when complaints are made about some secret plan to use that data for whatever evil NWO plan the Great Cabal has, keep that off this board. That is where I draw the line between what could be a legitimate complaint about privacy issues and black helicopter nonsense.
 

catalystman

Active member
To say there is nothing nefarious about it is to assume you have an absolute perspective....let's leave that to god and agree there may not be anything nefarious about it. I''m more of a Pink helicopter fan "Riptide" ;)....Let's not get distracted from the simple fact that the exponentially increasing aging population is the primary cause of this phenomena and that well established and highly respected economists around the world were warning of a global economic recession the likes of never seen well before this convenient invisible enemy popped up.
 
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willrod1989

Well-known member
As you mention, it is called contact tracing. There is nothing nefarious about it. Medical establishments keep records. Unless one is to avoid the medical establishment all together, it's going to happen.

But it isn't a giant conspiracy.

If people want to complain that maybe their DNA is being collected, okay. But when complaints are made about some secret plan to use that data for whatever evil NWO plan the Great Cabal has, keep that off this board. That is where I draw the line between what could be a legitimate complaint about privacy issues and black helicopter nonsense.
As someone who works with contact tracers to help control this pandemic, let me assure you- even if the testers were out there collecting DNA, our labs are so overworked just processing the COVID-19 tests, there is no way that we'd have any extra time to collect a DNA profile on every single person who gets tested. Trust me, as it is right now, I'm working 12-14 hour days just to keep up!

Besides, the way that the tests work is completely different than your standard DNA test. Yes, both a DNA test and a Real-time Reverse Transcriptase test use Polymerase Chain Reaction to amplify genetic material to make it easier to collect. However, in this case, this specific test uses the enzyme Reverse Transcriptase to convert viral RNA into DNA, then uses a reagent that changes color when it comes into contact with SARS-CoV-2. It does not specifically sequence the genes- that requires a different method entirely. It's cheap, relatively fast, and relatively inexpensive compared to your standard genetic testing.

On top of this, the lab technicians here in California only identify the tests by specimen number when they run the test. The actual identifiable information is kept in a separate database at the county health department. HIPPA laws require that these are kept strictly confidential- hence using specimen numbers when running lab tests.

I will be more than happy to answer any questions about testing, contact tracing, and epidemiological modelling that any of you might have. I will try to keep everyone updated with any information that I come across as well. As always, please stay safe, follow the guidelines, and be kind to others.
 

RiffRaff

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
...I did not mention vaccines...the DNA collection is occurring through COVID testing...the fact you confused this is very telling of your previous lack of contemplation of the identical nature of DNA testing and COVID testing and testimony to the level of attentiveness people give to this...you are not alone in your views but please move forward and move quickly.

Furthermore, this level of misinterpretation is further testimony to the level of self awareness of many these days...your response contained a discourse that has been fed to you previously and lacked any notion of critical thinking on my own comments... what your comment essentially does is attempt to place my comment in with "anti-vaccine" ideology which has nothing too do with my comment...you have seemingly provided everyone here a very good proof of the point i was trying to make without actually getting the point yourself...
I find your comments insulting and arrogant in the extreme, in the vein of "I know something you don't, and if you can't figure it out for yourself than I'm not going to tell you." I suggest that in the future you keep your comments focused on the actual topic at hand, and if you have any points you want to make, you post links to supporting data for what you have to say. Otherwise, you are stating personal opinion, not facts. Don't confuse the two.
 
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