COVID-19 October, 2020

catalystman

Active member
I find your comments insulting and arrogant in the extreme, in the vein of "I know something you don't, and if you can't figure it out for yourself than I'm not going to tell you." I suggest that in the future you keep your comments focused on the actual topic at hand, and if you have any points you want to make, you post links to supporting data for what you have to say. Otherwise, you are stating personal opinion, not facts. Don't confuse the two.
You are again reinforcing my first point insitu,
*People need to think for themselves and not rely on being handed commentary made available to them.

I suppose the next point is:
*Unrefuted data, in particular the human population growth rate early to mid last century, needs to be viewed from a perspective that allows the obvious conclusion:
We can expect an exponentially increasing death rate at this time in history based on the natural biological effect of an aging population in greater density than anytime in recorded human history. In other words, this was always going to happen, there is nothing we can do about it.

The basis for you taking offense is likely grounded in my first point, my expectation that one comes to certain conclusions by way of reason for the purpose of establishing their own unwavering commitment to the underlying truth in an understanding. Yes, I can be overbearingly confident in my deliverance of the "pointy" end of logic but one may argue that arrogance may arise if another is lacking humility... there can be a certain hypocrisy in calling one arrogant no? especially if the "arrogance" is founded in logic laid bare for all. I'd say you were "insulted"(embarrassed) by my pointing to your display of a "lack of contemplation" by citing your failure to correctly reference my argument...which brings us back to my first point, People need to think for themselves...that only happens when people learn to navigate logic as opposed to recite dogmatic ideology... this is the crux of the twisted veil of the commentary on "COVID"...
 
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catalystman

Active member
Sincerest thanks to willrod for the informative contribution, it goes atleast some way to delaying the obvious concerns of many... The testing proceedures need to be fully open to the publics eye. Some facilities are using full genome sequencers but If they bring in (as standard) these machines, citing "rapid response" as part of the "new normal"...well, no longer Kansas anymore
 

RiffRaff

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
You are again reinforcing my first point insitu,
*People need to think for themselves and not rely on being handed commentary made available to them.
The fact that I stocked up on PPE and other items clear back in February and have been wearing a mask while in public well before there were any mandates to do so proves that I am capable of independent thought, analysis, and rejection of patently false information being provided to the masses by the government and the media.

I have been monitoring the Covid pandemic since January 17th. I ask questions of people who have knowledge in areas I don't. I draw conclusions, modify those conclusions as new evidence becomes available, and always check my sources of information for an agenda other than factual scientific reporting. I am the LAST person on this forum who has been "reciting dogmatic ideology," and there are behaviors of this virus of which I have been aware for months that are only just now being presented to the public by the CDC, American media, and others.

And I would argue that arrogance is present when one's self lacks humility. I, for instance, do not claim to know everything, or The Truth, or to be infallible. It is a lack of those qualities which constitutes arrogance, in my opinion. It is the smug assumption of one's intellectual superiority over others.

Your point on the increase of an aging population is well taken, but you present it as a sole causality instead of one of many factors involved in the current crisis.

I suggest you work on your presentation skills. Your argument gets lost in your delivery.
 

willrod1989

Well-known member
Your point on the increase of an aging population is well taken, but you present it as a sole causality instead of one of many factors involved in the current crisis.
Exactly. If the only factor determining morbidity and mortality were age, you wouldn't see previously young, healthy people dying or in the hospital. Look, I understand that, especially given the lack of clear and concise messaging during this crisis, that it's tempting to look for alternative explanations. But honestly, reality doesn't work that way. Even the experts can only go with what information they have gathered. This is a highly contagious virus with a relatively high mortality rate, which can spread with or without symptoms. Masks help slow down the spread, but are not completely infallible.

Those are the concrete facts as we know it. As for what is not known without a reasonable doubt at this time: did this arise in nature, or escape from a lab? How long did the Chinese know about this while covering it up? It is well known that the Wuhan Institute of Virology has been engaging in Gain of Function research with bat coronaviruses, and it's quite possible that there might have been some minor genetic engineering. It's likely that the virus escaped the laboratory, but it's been neither proven nor disproven at this time. In terms of combatting this pandemic using non-pharmaceutical interventions, the origins of the virus make little difference at this point in time.

I have mentioned before on this board that I am an epidemiologist working with the California Department of Public Health. If you have any questions about the transmission dynamics of this disease, or how to protect yourself, I am more than happy to answer them.
 

Yingyang

Well-known member
Exactly. If the only factor determining morbidity and mortality were age, you wouldn't see previously young, healthy people dying or in the hospital. Look, I understand that, especially given the lack of clear and concise messaging during this crisis, that it's tempting to look for alternative explanations. But honestly, reality doesn't work that way. Even the experts can only go with what information they have gathered. This is a highly contagious virus with a relatively high mortality rate, which can spread with or without symptoms. Masks help slow down the spread, but are not completely infallible.

Those are the concrete facts as we know it. As for what is not known without a reasonable doubt at this time: did this arise in nature, or escape from a lab? How long did the Chinese know about this while covering it up? It is well known that the Wuhan Institute of Virology has been engaging in Gain of Function research with bat coronaviruses, and it's quite possible that there might have been some minor genetic engineering. It's likely that the virus escaped the laboratory, but it's been neither proven nor disproven at this time. In terms of combatting this pandemic using non-pharmaceutical interventions, the origins of the virus make little difference at this point in time.

I have mentioned before on this board that I am an epidemiologist working with the California Department of Public Health. If you have any questions about the transmission dynamics of this disease, or how to protect yourself, I am more than happy to answer them.
You know catching any corona virus of a particular strain only happens once and you have it for life. You must also realise it lays dormant until the right conditions present for it to activate. E.g..common cold . Core body temperature. Unfortunately medical authorities won't divulge such information as this harms pharmaceutical industry. Cancer and the introduction of oxygen. Common herpes and natural healing time compared to pharmaceutical healing time . ??????????????? I don't have much faith in a vaccine for shit that mutates. In fact vaccines. At the start of this media showing people in China,Korea , Iran and I think Italy dropping in the streets. Months on global spread and no footage of people dropping in streets. Dodgy shit.
 

RiffRaff

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Exactly. If the only factor determining morbidity and mortality were age, you wouldn't see previously young, healthy people dying or in the hospital. Look, I understand that, especially given the lack of clear and concise messaging during this crisis, that it's tempting to look for alternative explanations. But honestly, reality doesn't work that way. Even the experts can only go with what information they have gathered. This is a highly contagious virus with a relatively high mortality rate, which can spread with or without symptoms. Masks help slow down the spread, but are not completely infallible.

Those are the concrete facts as we know it. As for what is not known without a reasonable doubt at this time: did this arise in nature, or escape from a lab? How long did the Chinese know about this while covering it up? It is well known that the Wuhan Institute of Virology has been engaging in Gain of Function research with bat coronaviruses, and it's quite possible that there might have been some minor genetic engineering. It's likely that the virus escaped the laboratory, but it's been neither proven nor disproven at this time. In terms of combatting this pandemic using non-pharmaceutical interventions, the origins of the virus make little difference at this point in time.

I have mentioned before on this board that I am an epidemiologist working with the California Department of Public Health. If you have any questions about the transmission dynamics of this disease, or how to protect yourself, I am more than happy to answer them.
We have been wearing P-100 masks in public. How important is eye protection? If wearing nothing is 0, and wearing a P-100/N-95 mask is 10, where would eye protection fall on that scale? Also, early on in the pandemic it was recommended that groceries should be wiped down with disinfectant wipes when coming into the house, and that shoes worn in public should not be worn into the house. Can you clarify those two issues for me?

Also, on the topic of airborne transmission, we are under the impression that as long as no other people are near you, the wearing of masks outdoors is not necessary. Is this true?

Any other advice?

Thanks,
Riff
 
G

Guest

Guest
Airborne transmission https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj...any-scientists-think-coronavirus-is-airborne/
Antibodies last 2-3 months
Masks. Decrease viral load
 

RiffRaff

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
My understanding is that the virus is too small for most masks to block. Which is why you need an N95 to protect yourself.
Exactly. Surgical masks can help prevent someone who is infected from spreading it to others, but not at 100% efficacy, and the mask does nothing to protect the wearer from others. My wife and I wear P-100s anytime we're in public.
 
G

Guest

Guest
A decreased viral load leads to a milder case of the covid virus since it is an airborne virus that is the best we can do short of a level V biosuit. It can help develop antibodies. As you can see from the previous article antibodies can wane quickly this may actually be a way to maintain a level of resistance.
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
A decreased viral load leads to a milder case of the covid virus since it is an airborne virus that is the best we can do short of a level V biosuit.
Yes, but does a mask actually result in a decreased viral load? After all, once the bug gets into you, the first thing it does is start reproducing. It's got nothing better to do.

The last time I caught a cold, I didn't catch it by swimming in billions of viruses. It only took a few to start it. Maybe one.
 
G

Guest

Guest
Yes, but does a mask actually result in a decreased viral load? After all, once the bug gets into you, the first thing it does is start reproducing. It's got nothing better to do.

The last time I caught a cold, I didn't catch it by swimming in billions of viruses. It only took a few to start it. Maybe one.
Two factors effect how sick you get. Viral load and the bodies reaction to it. There is evidence on vit D and zinc factor in. I can tell you every covid patient I’ve cared for has had a vit D in single digits . Whether you are more susceptible to covid with a low vit d level or the virus utilizes the bodies vit d till it depletes it remains to be seen zinc seems to
Be similar. https://www.axios.com/viral-load-dose-coronavirus-246b334d-5420-488d-a1b1-ec9a39c55f58.html
 

willrod1989

Well-known member
We have been wearing P-100 masks in public. How important is eye protection? If wearing nothing is 0, and wearing a P-100/N-95 mask is 10, where would eye protection fall on that scale? Also, early on in the pandemic it was recommended that groceries should be wiped down with disinfectant wipes when coming into the house, and that shoes worn in public should not be worn into the house. Can you clarify those two issues for me?

Also, on the topic of airborne transmission, we are under the impression that as long as no other people are near you, the wearing of masks outdoors is not necessary. Is this true?

Any other advice?

Thanks,
Riff
Hello :) I am very glad to hear that you are wearing P-100 masks while in public. That is honestly the best way that you can protect yourself from this virus. In terms of airborne transmission- one of the things that researchers have poorly understood until recently is that most respiratory viruses- especially rhinoviruses and coronaviruses, which cause common colds- can spread via aerosols as well as droplets. What usually determines if an infection takes hold- and how severe the symptoms may be- depends on the viral load and the immune system's readiness to fight the infection. If you're tired and run down, and around someone who has a cold, you'll probably start to feel under the weather- scratchy throat, slight coughing, etc. However, if you're standing close to someone who is really sick and coughing, your viral load increases, and your body's immune system has to work harder once the infection takes hold.

One common misconception is that any time you're exposed to a pathogen, you become infected. That's not necessarily the case. Your body's innate immune system is usually very good at keeping pathogens at bay, as long as it's not overwhelmed by too many viruses or bacteria all at once. Depending on your exposure level, you might have a silent infection, or develop a severe form of the disease- anywhere along that continuum.

With that being said, anything that you can do to decrease any possible exposure to a pathogen, the better. While it has yet to be conclusively demonstrated that airborne virus particles can land in the eyes and cause infection, it is definitely theoretically possible. What has been conclusively demonstrated, however, is that people can become infected via droplets through any mucous membranes, such as the eyes, nose, or mouth. If you are close to someone who is not wearing a mask, and they are coughing, you are at risk. Personally, I wear N-95 masks and laboratory goggles whenever I leave the house. Regular glasses can help somewhat as well. So, if laboratory goggles provide nearly the same protection as an N-95 masks, I would rate glasses at around the same level of efficacy as a surgical mask.

In terms of fomite transmission, such as from packages or shoes, at this time, this does not appear to be one of the main routes of transmission. The largest proportion of confirmed cases of COVID-19, at least here in California, have come from people who continue to attend gatherings of family and friends outside of their immediate household, and then spreading the virus to members of their household. The greatest risk factor appears to be large gatherings of people in poorly ventilated spaces, or close contact with a known case of COVID-19. However, fomites have not been ruled out as a potential route of transmission, which is why it's still important to wash your hands frequently. If you wish to be extra cautious, I would recommend disinfecting anything that you bring in from the outdoors. I tend to be overly cautious, but I have a large, full-room UV lamp in my garage, and I place anything that I bring from the outdoors in the garage and run the lamp.

As for wearing masks outdoors, as long as there are no other people near you, the outdoor air would disperse any virus particles, and UV radiation from the sun would help to neutralize it. The only instances of outdoor transmission that I am aware of have been "super spreader" events, involving very large crowds of people who are not social distancing. As long as you maintain plenty of distance from other people (I would recommend at least 20 feet), you shouldn't need to wear a mask.

It really sounds like you have put a lot of thought into protecting yourself and your loved ones from this virus. I would also recommend that you shower and change your clothes as soon as you get home. Again, the chances of transmission through this route are still very low, but anything that you can do to reduce your risk adds up over time!

If I think of anything else, or come across any new information, I will post an update as soon as I can. I will also be happy to answer any further questions.

Stay safe and healthy!

-Will
 

willrod1989

Well-known member
Two factors effect how sick you get. Viral load and the bodies reaction to it. There is evidence on vit D and zinc factor in. I can tell you every covid patient I’ve cared for has had a vit D in single digits . Whether you are more susceptible to covid with a low vit d level or the virus utilizes the bodies vit d till it depletes it remains to be seen zinc seems to
Be similar. https://www.axios.com/viral-load-dose-coronavirus-246b334d-5420-488d-a1b1-ec9a39c55f58.html
Absolutely. I started my career in public health researching HIV/AIDS. We have since come to find out that a person's risk of seroconversion is directly proportionate to the viral load that they are exposed to. This is one of the reasons why HIV/AIDS has been so difficult to combat until recently- most people get infected with HIV when they are exposed to someone who has an exceptionally high viral load, which is at the earliest point in their infection. At this point, the person is usually asymptomatic, or has mild symptoms, before their body develops flu-like symptoms, during which the immune system fights back against the infection and produces antibodies. It is during this silent "window period" that people were most infectious, and would transmit HIV before they would show up positive on an antibody test. It wasn't until we developed PCR tests which could detect viral material, and antiretroviral drugs which can prevent infection, that we were able to finally get ahead on the HIV/AIDS pandemic (yes, HIV/AIDS has been an ongoing pandemic for decades).

The reason I bring this up is that SARS-CoV-2 behaves in a somewhat similar fashion. It appears that whenever someone goes on to develop symptoms, they tend to have the highest viral load, and are most infectious, a couple days before they show symptoms. They continue to be highly infectious for the first couple of days of symptoms, and then, as the immune system finally kicks in, the viral load begins to decrease. This phenomenon is not unique to HIV or SARS-Cov-2, however. It has been observed in many different diseases, such as influenza, smallpox, polio, and measles.
 

RiffRaff

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Hello :) I am very glad to hear that you are wearing P-100 masks while in public. That is honestly the best way that you can protect yourself from this virus. In terms of airborne transmission- one of the things that researchers have poorly understood until recently is that most respiratory viruses- especially rhinoviruses and coronaviruses, which cause common colds- can spread via aerosols as well as droplets. What usually determines if an infection takes hold- and how severe the symptoms may be- depends on the viral load and the immune system's readiness to fight the infection. If you're tired and run down, and around someone who has a cold, you'll probably start to feel under the weather- scratchy throat, slight coughing, etc. However, if you're standing close to someone who is really sick and coughing, your viral load increases, and your body's immune system has to work harder once the infection takes hold.

One common misconception is that any time you're exposed to a pathogen, you become infected. That's not necessarily the case. Your body's innate immune system is usually very good at keeping pathogens at bay, as long as it's not overwhelmed by too many viruses or bacteria all at once. Depending on your exposure level, you might have a silent infection, or develop a severe form of the disease- anywhere along that continuum.

With that being said, anything that you can do to decrease any possible exposure to a pathogen, the better. While it has yet to be conclusively demonstrated that airborne virus particles can land in the eyes and cause infection, it is definitely theoretically possible. What has been conclusively demonstrated, however, is that people can become infected via droplets through any mucous membranes, such as the eyes, nose, or mouth. If you are close to someone who is not wearing a mask, and they are coughing, you are at risk. Personally, I wear N-95 masks and laboratory goggles whenever I leave the house. Regular glasses can help somewhat as well. So, if laboratory goggles provide nearly the same protection as an N-95 masks, I would rate glasses at around the same level of efficacy as a surgical mask.

In terms of fomite transmission, such as from packages or shoes, at this time, this does not appear to be one of the main routes of transmission. The largest proportion of confirmed cases of COVID-19, at least here in California, have come from people who continue to attend gatherings of family and friends outside of their immediate household, and then spreading the virus to members of their household. The greatest risk factor appears to be large gatherings of people in poorly ventilated spaces, or close contact with a known case of COVID-19. However, fomites have not been ruled out as a potential route of transmission, which is why it's still important to wash your hands frequently. If you wish to be extra cautious, I would recommend disinfecting anything that you bring in from the outdoors. I tend to be overly cautious, but I have a large, full-room UV lamp in my garage, and I place anything that I bring from the outdoors in the garage and run the lamp.

As for wearing masks outdoors, as long as there are no other people near you, the outdoor air would disperse any virus particles, and UV radiation from the sun would help to neutralize it. The only instances of outdoor transmission that I am aware of have been "super spreader" events, involving very large crowds of people who are not social distancing. As long as you maintain plenty of distance from other people (I would recommend at least 20 feet), you shouldn't need to wear a mask.

It really sounds like you have put a lot of thought into protecting yourself and your loved ones from this virus. I would also recommend that you shower and change your clothes as soon as you get home. Again, the chances of transmission through this route are still very low, but anything that you can do to reduce your risk adds up over time!

If I think of anything else, or come across any new information, I will post an update as soon as I can. I will also be happy to answer any further questions.

Stay safe and healthy!

-Will
I greatly appreciate the time you put into your response. Thank you.
 

willrod1989

Well-known member
I greatly appreciate the time you put into your response. Thank you.
You're very welcome :) I will reiterate though, most of my advice is much stricter than the official advice from public health agencies. However, I tend to be extremely cautious when it comes to diseases, especially something as deadly as this. To put things in perspective- I used to always wear surgical masks at the grocery store during flu season. Then again, I've always pictures diseases spreading between people whenever I interact with the public.
 

RiffRaff

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
You're very welcome :) I will reiterate though, most of my advice is much stricter than the official advice from public health agencies. However, I tend to be extremely cautious when it comes to diseases, especially something as deadly as this. To put things in perspective- I used to always wear surgical masks at the grocery store during flu season. Then again, I've always pictures diseases spreading between people whenever I interact with the public.
I'm playing it safe with this bug as well. I'd rather be overcautious than intubated.
 
O

Orius

Guest
Germany is preparing for a whole new lockdown, as many cities breaks the limit of positive cases. Same as few other european countries like italy, france, UK,czech, netherlands, ireland, etc
 
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