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DEFCON 4 | Europe Crisis | January 2022

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TruthandJustice said:
The US is now considering an insurgency in Ukraine.

t.co

U.S. Considers Backing an Insurgency if Russia Invades Ukraine

Conversations about how far the United States would go to subvert Russia in the event of an invasion have revived the specter of a new Cold War.
t.co t.co
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Train said:
Interesting read here
www.nytimes.com

U.S. Considers Backing an Insurgency if Russia Invades Ukraine

Conversations about how far the United States would go to subvert Russia in the event of an invasion have revived the specter of a new Cold War.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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beat you to it ;)

rudemarine said:
Oh you know they will. Then again with Russias modern forces it won’t end all that well for the insurgents. It will only work if Russia pulls it’s better trained airborne forces out and has regular forces there, who do not want to be there in the first place.

The Reaper, that black American army sniper decided to go help Ukraine in the beginning until a skilled Russian sniper had him and his buddy pinned down pissing themselves, thinking they were going to die.
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Mhm. Although I don't know. I liked this line:
“And if it turned into a Ukrainian insurgency, Putin should realize that after fighting insurgencies ourselves for two decades, we know how to arm, train and energize them.”

...But. Russia's used to fighting insurgencies too. Maybe not as directly and recently as America, and they sure don't have the equipment and training the US does, but I don't think the RUAF is as bad as a lot of people think. It's not the 80s anymore.

Who knows.
 
I am seeing reports leaking on Twitter stating an agreement was made as far back as 2008 to admit both Ukraine and Georgia as members of NATO with no specific deadline. This could be part of Russia’s pretext disinformation campaign.
 
TruthandJustice said:
I am seeing reports leaking on Twitter stating an agreement was made as far back as 2008 to admit both Ukraine and Georgia as members of NATO with no specific deadline. This could be part of Russia’s pretext disinformation campaign.
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Yes, the Bucharest summit. They "George W." had a meeting that included Ukraine and Georgia.

No reasoning why it's being brought to light 14 years after the fact, but maybe Russia needed to do some soul searching.
 
Looks like significant AIRINT has been followed by numerous OSINT communitites - US Airforce now scanning over Cuba and Venezuela, shortly after words "Cuba" and "Venezuela" left Russian spokesman's mouth.
Cuba has been visited by the plane of Russian government 2 days ago.

@krzepice1976 - you might be interested.
1642183248407.png1642183261224.png

It is Carribean Crisis all over again?

P.S. if you are safe or not, you can take a rough check here:
1642183388915.png
 
So there is a ramp up of rhetoric coming from the ministers, but then Lavrov blantly states It's Putin's initiative?

"Russia expects “an itemized response to our documents,” Lavrov explained. “If some article of our proposals doesn’t suit them, they can explain why and write it on paper. If it suits them to make emendations, they can do that also in written form.” Ultimately, the format would be up to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Lavrov said, because “it is his initiative."

www.rt.com

Russia reveals when it expects Western response to security proposals

Western powers have promised to send a written reply to the set of security proposals that Moscow presented in December, following negotiations this week, Russia’s top diplomat has announced.
www.rt.com www.rt.com

I don't think I've ever been so confused about bluster from Russia...
 
Citizen-21 said:
Looks like significant AIRINT has been followed by numerous OSINT communitites - US Airforce now scanning over Cuba and Venezuela, shortly after words "Cuba" and "Venezuela" left Russian spokesman's mouth.
Cuba has been visited by the plane of Russian government 2 days ago.

@krzepice1976 - you might be interested.
View attachment 1553View attachment 1554

It is Carribean Crisis all over again?

P.S. if you are safe or not, you can take a rough check here:
View attachment 1555
Click to expand...
There would be an emergency OPANAL meeting if evidence is found since Cuba and Venezuela are members of this organization.
 
Not directly tied to current Ukrainian situation but you can bet it was planned in response to everything Russian.

thebarentsobserver.com

Two NATO carrier groups will sail north for exercise Cold Response

As Russia deploys the new 3M22 Tsirkon anti-ship hypersonic missile in the Barents Sea, NATO has decided to send two of its most potent naval weapons to the Norwegian-led Exercise Cold Response, the aircraft carriers "HMS Prince of Wales" and the "USS Harry S Truman".
thebarentsobserver.com thebarentsobserver.com
 
Newsmax is talking about a cyber attack from Russia against Ukraine right now.. supposedly Russia hacked all the government websites in Ukraine and displayed a message " be afraid and expect the worst" Anyone have any more information on this?
 
Grey Hound said:
Newsmax is talking about a cyber attack from Russia against Ukraine right now.. supposedly Russia hacked all the government websites in Ukraine and displayed a message " be afraid and expect the worst" Anyone have any more information on this?
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This happened overnight and has been reported.
 
Citizen-21 said:
Looks like significant AIRINT has been followed by numerous OSINT communitites - US Airforce now scanning over Cuba and Venezuela, shortly after words "Cuba" and "Venezuela" left Russian spokesman's mouth.
Cuba has been visited by the plane of Russian government 2 days ago.

@krzepice1976 - you might be interested.
View attachment 1553View attachment 1554

It is Carribean Crisis all over again?

P.S. if you are safe or not, you can take a rough check here:
View attachment 1555
Click to expand...
Put missiles in Cuba I don’t care just don’t put nuclear warheads in Cuba. Waste money put them in Venezuela.
Russian planes and naval vessels make regular trips to Cuba and Venezuela.
Is the US threatening to invade Cuba over that which has been going on for fifty years.
Its a non-sequitur argument now and was in 62. Because it was about nuclear missiles.
Their are no US nuclear missiles - short intermediate or long range on European soil.

No one is even talking about putting any offensive missiles in Ukraine of any kind.
Period full stop
 
Obreid said:
Put missiles in Cuba I don’t care just don’t put nuclear warheads in Cuba. Waste money put them in Venezuela.
Russian planes and naval vessels make regular trips to Cuba and Venezuela.
Is the US threatening to invade Cuba over that which has been going on for fifty years.
Its a non-sequitur argument now and was in 62. Because it was about nuclear missiles.
Their are no US nuclear missiles - short intermediate or long range on European soil.

No one is even talking about putting any offensive missiles in Ukraine of any kind.
Period full stop
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There are intercontinental missiles, no need for Cuba or Venezuela for Russia, even submarines could launch missiles, as you say, we are no longer in 1962.
 
This is about exactly what Russia said it was about.
Russia’s Sphere of influence and is it shrinking or be allowed to shrink further.
And unfortunately that outcome is solely about the ability and willingness all those involved to enforce that power.
Ultimately it’s always about power and ability to project it. Love it hate it makes zero difference.
The US over last twenty years totally botched our power projection in much but not all of the Mideast. Russia I believe over the last 30 years botched their power projection in the old soviet states.
It just is right or wrong.

and to that end I don’t know how it will shake out
but I still don’t see it going nuclear quickly.
Unless Russia decides early on they have nothing to lose.
I don’t see nato going nuclear over Ukraine or the nato Baltic states. Poland yes
But no one, not the US, the Europeans or Russians are going to risk their capitals being nuked over “the boarder lands”
 
Saguenay said:
There are intercontinental missiles, no need for Cuba or Venezuela for Russia, even submarines could launch missiles, as you say, we are no longer in 1962.
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I realize that, my point is because of the Cuban missile crisis and the US demanding that nuclear warheads be removed from Cuba. That somehow it equates to NATO can’t be in any military alliance with Ukraine.
There is absolutely zero indication past present or future that US is going to position any nuclear missiles in any of the old soviet states.
There’s current talk of doing so in Germany and that is in response to Iskanders in Kaliningrad which can easily carry nuclear warheads.
Boomers can launch 90 miles at sea from Washington and a little further to Moscow.
This isn’t about nukes it’s about power projection and Russia’s been losing and their trying to correct that.
It’s a hard cold world with winners and losers not the school playground.
Wished it wasn’t but it just is
 
Citizen-21 said:
Looks like significant AIRINT has been followed by numerous OSINT communitites - US Airforce now scanning over Cuba and Venezuela, shortly after words "Cuba" and "Venezuela" left Russian spokesman's mouth.
Cuba has been visited by the plane of Russian government 2 days ago.

@krzepice1976 - you might be interested.
View attachment 1553View attachment 1554

It is Carribean Crisis all over again?

P.S. if you are safe or not, you can take a rough check here:
View attachment 1555
Click to expand...

Cuba does not have nuclear weapons anymore! We would spot them instantly and flat bomb them back into the days of Columbus if they did. That goes for Venezuela too.
 
Obreid said:
I’ve always been curious about the dance Sweden does with Gotland.
Do they respond in this way when things get tense just to make sure they maintain physical possession of the island. Or is it forward deployment of strategic assets to the area?
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It’s a strategic island they will never give up without a huge fight because it’s their people and a great place to watch the Russians from. They take any intrusion into their waters very seriously. Do you remember the huge Russian sub hunt a few years ago? Turns out it really was a Russian sub from the recorded sonar in the area posted online.
 
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