DEFCON 4 | Europe Crisis | November 2021

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Soldiereye

Active member
I realize there is a multitude of things going on globally. I’m trying to prioritize everything, even though I’m learning that is pointless. However, anything that concerns the “super powers” and NATO scares the p00p out of me. I value all of your experience, expertise, and opinions… so what the heck are we looking at with all of this? Seems to me we can go from 5 to 2 or even 1 in the blink of an eye. I live in ny. I’m more worried now than ever about how to protect my family, if I even can. Paralyzed, tbi, ptsd, now a form of ALS Iraq vet. Seems the whole world is heating up… something has to blow.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
The odds of going straight from 5 to 1 in the blink of an eye with no warning at all are pretty slim. The strategy of a surprise all-out nuclear attack by one superpower against another is pretty much dead. While I will never say something is "impossible" I would classify this as extremely unlikely.
 

DarkNoon

Dedicated Moderator
Staff member
I realize there is a multitude of things going on globally. I’m trying to prioritize everything, even though I’m learning that is pointless. However, anything that concerns the “super powers” and NATO scares the p00p out of me. I value all of your experience, expertise, and opinions… so what the heck are we looking at with all of this? Seems to me we can go from 5 to 2 or even 1 in the blink of an eye. I live in ny. I’m more worried now than ever about how to protect my family, if I even can. Paralyzed, tbi, ptsd, now a form of ALS Iraq vet. Seems the whole world is heating up… something has to blow.
There's no way of predicting anything. But you can monitor the situations developing across the globe. Monitoring world events is in itself a early warning system. It's why these forums exist or intelligence agencies exists.

The stability of South Asia & Middle East are a cause for alarm but NOT panic. Even if all the regional power houses do go to war, America will be left out of it excluding the global scientific side effects of a regional nuclear war.

Same for the Middle East, if Israel & Iran have a real show down it won't involve the US to the extent of a global conflict. Trump & Biden made sure we wouldn't get sucked into anymore middle east conflicts.


Ukraine, Kashmir, Iraq, Iran, Bangladesh, Pakistan, & India are becoming alarming entangled but nothing to be panicked about IF you live in America. That is in regards to war. Not talking global economic catastrophic complications involving such wars even if America doesn't fight in them.

Think supply chain problems bad now? Wait until India & Pakistan blow each other up. But America suffering a first strike won't happen by any of these regional powers. It's their own beefs not ours.
 
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Obreid

Power Poster
Taking the article Drummer boy posted awhile back about the influence AI might have on strategic deterrence and possible escalation. Going from 5-1 is unlikely but escalation I believe in certain circumstances can or will be accelerated if AI is designed or allowed to extrapolate and make strategic decisions.
 

Train

Well-known member
I realize there is a multitude of things going on globally. I’m trying to prioritize everything, even though I’m learning that is pointless. However, anything that concerns the “super powers” and NATO scares the p00p out of me. I value all of your experience, expertise, and opinions… so what the heck are we looking at with all of this? Seems to me we can go from 5 to 2 or even 1 in the blink of an eye. I live in ny. I’m more worried now than ever about how to protect my family, if I even can. Paralyzed, tbi, ptsd, now a form of ALS Iraq vet. Seems the whole world is heating up… something has to blow.
Hey, you’re not alone in being terrified when stuff like this rears it’s head from time to time. Shit, I live in the UK, where it’s nigh impossible to survive anything major unless you’re part of the elite (but ain’t that the truth anywhere…) so it scares the hell out of me.

I chose to study international relations at uni to try and get a better grasp of the world I live in (among other shit…yeah, reading this forum and following OSINT might’ve swayed my degree choice) but I’ve quickly learned that being hyper-aware of everything that could possibly lead to conflict wears you down mentally. It’s natural. When you’re focussed on the worst news, catastrophising all the time, it doesn’t lead to a sparkly, positive outlook.

I think it’s good to try and prepare for the worst, but that doesn’t mean the worst will happen.

Try and distance yourself from the news sometimes, or if not, at least step back and think about it in the big picture. Think of the things we’ve walked away from before when it seemed almost certain it’d escalate (hell, just look at some of the old threads on this website!)

My words probably don’t mean anything, it’s just the uninformed opinion of someone that watched Threads when he was 13 and it changed his life, but hopefully it’s atleast something.

Keep your head up, bud. You’ll be alright.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
We all have a date in the future set for us so I tend not to see it as some final act I can escape.
I like to think my reading history has prepared me in some degree for a radical societal change. Be it war or economic.
I remember reading the Good Earth as a kid. It struck me then how horrible it was for those refugees and the mind numbing despair. But they persevered.
The man I knew who escaped thru Cambodia during the killing fields and he has a home and his family and business in Tulsa.
Giving up is NEVER an option.
You might not see it but your children probably will. THAT is enough reason right there.
 

MichaelH

Active member
I realize there is a multitude of things going on globally. I’m trying to prioritize everything, even though I’m learning that is pointless. However, anything that concerns the “super powers” and NATO scares the p00p out of me. I value all of your experience, expertise, and opinions… so what the heck are we looking at with all of this? Seems to me we can go from 5 to 2 or even 1 in the blink of an eye. I live in ny. I’m more worried now than ever about how to protect my family, if I even can. Paralyzed, tbi, ptsd, now a form of ALS Iraq vet. Seems the whole world is heating up… something has to blow.
Hang in there brother. I've been there.
 

Citizen-21

Well-known member
Hi everyone, i've been on a trip for more than a month away, so i finally can cover up on some things, fortunately interesting things happened only few days ago so that would be easy.

Use of a TB-2 UAV and simultaneous attack on a village on neutral territory by Ukrainians turned out to be a very bad news for the Republics and Russia. There are only bleak responses from Russian officials to this, but to it's so-called "experts" and people it became clear - Russia and Republic has no symmetrical counter to this, despite that such a development was obvious a whole year ago, and yet they didn't prepared for that at all. No of their own UAVs. no EW, no instructions, no AA's, nothing. Russia is way too passive, and judging by it's internal problems/solutions and their development for the last months on several areas, it feels like Russian power at dissarray - various lobbies and oligarchs within pushing their own ambitions onto each others, and even affecting Russian external policy, while the center of all power - the President, is doing nothing regarding recent urgent developments. So, they didn't even prepared to counter these drones at all, Ministery of Foregin Affairs sends off bleak notices to explain at least something, etc. So, for the Russians it is unknown what to expect from them, may be there will be some kind of act from their side, if there is - since it's possible that nothing was prepared beforehand, it could be an urgent improvisation that could lead to all kinds of surprises.

Ukraine right now is seriously saturated with Western weapons such as American sniper systems, Turkish drones and communications with relay systems that allows use of Bayraktars from a far greater distance. Even regarding small-arms. Ukraine adopting AR-system rifles to replace some of their AKs, to make possible the adoption of US electronics to go with them (NVG, thermals and so on). These developments in Ukrainian Army are made to take a serious advantage in leading stable trench warfare that has been going for the last 5-6 years. By using all of this, they are going to seriously demoralise Republic's forces will to fight by inflicting constant casualties and sending results online to flex on them, which is lethal for volunteer-based army that is already heavily undermanned and seriously disappointed in it's command.
The recent footage of a TB-2 strike shows a hit nearby D-30 artillery cannon, it's crew managed to take cover 3 seconds prior an impact, so everyone survived. But this footage was enough to raise seriouse questions for volunteered fighters, like "Are you ready to work at the frontline just to meet the certain death from above strike at any second, like these guys on footage and Armenians at Karabakh?".
Dragunov sniper rifle is not an appropriate answer against CheyTac or Barrett company sniper rifle, TB-2 Bayraktar with relay systems is capable to strike out far out of neutral-zone distance, from within Ukrainian territory. And sabotage groups armed with Western gear at night are going to be a problem for DNR/LNR soldiers who are seriously undermanned on their positions. Eventually, People's Republic forces, seeing that Russia has no means or will to help them, and watching footage of their people dying to strikes every day, will refuse to continue the fight.
That is why i am saying, that Russia has no symmetrical answer for this kind of warfare, while Ukraine adapting greatly and launching a ticking bomb, before the Republics forces fall apart. If it comes to serious all-out warfare, Russia will shatter Ukraine no doubts, but due to technological disadvantages at certain areas of tactical weaponry, they cannot adequately support the Republics at stable-front minor warfare, which Ukraninians with the help of Western insturctors exploits very smart.

Ukraine is touching borders of Russia's patience, and it seems to be very deep, first they took the village, baited retaliation, and striked enemy's activated artillery with Ukraine to show off their new capabilities. Terrified civillians from that village were trying to hide their ID's and documents (this place has 30+ of Russian citizens) when Ukrainians started searching homes, and even took some people away with their fate unknown. All of it to provoke Russia regarding Nordstream-2 and gas deals, but Russia will not react, they will happily trade-off their civilian lifes for the future of that pipeline.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
Whi
Hi everyone, i've been on a trip for more than a month away, so i finally can cover up on some things, fortunately interesting things happened only few days ago so that would be easy.

Use of a TB-2 UAV and simultaneous attack on a village on neutral territory by Ukrainians turned out to be a very bad news for the Republics and Russia. There are only bleak responses from Russian officials to this, but to it's so-called "experts" and people it became clear - Russia and Republic has no symmetrical counter to this, despite that such a development was obvious a whole year ago, and yet they didn't prepared for that at all. No of their own UAVs. no EW, no instructions, no AA's, nothing. Russia is way too passive, and judging by it's internal problems/solutions and their development for the last months on several areas, it feels like Russian power at dissarray - various lobbies and oligarchs within pushing their own ambitions onto each others, and even affecting Russian external policy, while the center of all power - the President, is doing nothing regarding recent urgent developments. So, they didn't even prepared to counter these drones at all, Ministery of Foregin Affairs sends off bleak notices to explain at least something, etc. So, for the Russians it is unknown what to expect from them, may be there will be some kind of act from their side, if there is - since it's possible that nothing was prepared beforehand, it could be an urgent improvisation that could lead to all kinds of surprises.

Ukraine right now is seriously saturated with Western weapons such as American sniper systems, Turkish drones and communications with relay systems that allows use of Bayraktars from a far greater distance. Even regarding small-arms. Ukraine adopting AR-system rifles to replace some of their AKs, to make possible the adoption of US electronics to go with them (NVG, thermals and so on). These developments in Ukrainian Army are made to take a serious advantage in leading stable trench warfare that has been going for the last 5-6 years. By using all of this, they are going to seriously demoralise Republic's forces will to fight by inflicting constant casualties and sending results online to flex on them, which is lethal for volunteer-based army that is already heavily undermanned and seriously disappointed in it's command.
The recent footage of a TB-2 strike shows a hit nearby D-30 artillery cannon, it's crew managed to take cover 3 seconds prior an impact, so everyone survived. But this footage was enough to raise seriouse questions for volunteered fighters, like "Are you ready to work at the frontline just to meet the certain death from above strike at any second, like these guys on footage and Armenians at Karabakh?".
Dragunov sniper rifle is not an appropriate answer against CheyTac or Barrett company sniper rifle, TB-2 Bayraktar with relay systems is capable to strike out far out of neutral-zone distance, from within Ukrainian territory. And sabotage groups armed with Western gear at night are going to be a problem for DNR/LNR soldiers who are seriously undermanned on their positions. Eventually, People's Republic forces, seeing that Russia has no means or will to help them, and watching footage of their people dying to strikes every day, will refuse to continue the fight.
That is why i am saying, that Russia has no symmetrical answer for this kind of warfare, while Ukraine adapting greatly and launching a ticking bomb, before the Republics forces fall apart. If it comes to serious all-out warfare, Russia will shatter Ukraine no doubts, but due to technological disadvantages at certain areas of tactical weaponry, they cannot adequately support the Republics at stable-front minor warfare, which Ukraninians with the help of Western insturctors exploits very smart.

Ukraine is touching borders of Russia's patience, and it seems to be very deep, first they took the village, baited retaliation, and striked enemy's activated artillery with Ukraine to show off their new capabilities. Terrified civillians from that village were trying to hide their ID's and documents (this place has 30+ of Russian citizens) when Ukrainians started searching homes, and even took some people away with their fate unknown. All of it to provoke Russia regarding Nordstream-2 and gas deals, but Russia will not react, they will happily trade-off their civilian lifes for the future of that pipeline.
While I hope Ukraine can continue to determine it own fate. I hope not to see undo reprisals in those areas of ethnic Russians.
 
I think back to the time that NATO talked Ukraine out of their nuclear weapons for promised military support in return. I wonder now if Ukraine is so angered with Russian advances that it would have used those nukes on their UAV's instead of conventional heads. May God save the world with His infinite understanding of the foolishness of man.
 
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