DEFCON 4 | Europe Crisis | November 2021

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rudemarine

Power Poster II
The Military Times is reporting that people suspect Russia is building up for an invasion in late January.

Why would they wait for it to be colder? That's dumb. Russia moved equipment into place in September and now they definitely have everything they need. They will not need anymore Amphibious landing craft. I am sure they have enough assets in the Black Sea for their navy.
 

Citizen-21

Well-known member
RT isn't russian propaganda aimed at Russians, but at westerners. It's still interesting that they are willing to print this though.
Correct, i haven't seen any mention about going to war in Russian propaganda yet. And likely won't. They prefer doing that already after sending tanks in.
 
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Obreid

Power Poster III
which says that concentration of Russian forces are lower than during the spring, but media propaganda narrative screaming about way more...
Another interesting thing occurred to me reading this Rand report.
The western and southern border regions ARE where Russia has its greatest assets to deploy and project power. However the depth of those regular army and SF are pretty shallow. The bulk of the reinforcements would be conscripts and reservist called up. It would appear to me to be a big gamble for Russia to commit to any major incursion into Ukraine. ANY setback or major losses would put their western front at risk. Not so much at a risk of counter invasion of Russian territory. But simply a destabilizing loss to their strongest most capable military assets.
NATO no matter how weak they appear and in many way are have the resources of the US and Europe to reinforce.
Russian does not have that.

This would NOT play well in Russia domestically. This is speculation on my part here but I would imagine the rank and file Russian is irritated with what they see in Ukraine, legitimately or not. But what would be totally unacceptable to them would be a debilitated and vulnerable western and southern boarder.
Europe isn’t going to invade Russia but renewed ethnic and religious fighting in their southern district remains a concern.
That’s just a personal observation.
 
The Military Times is reporting that people suspect Russia is building up for an invasion in late January.

Why would they wait for it to be colder? That's dumb. Russia moved equipment into place in September and now they definitely have everything they need. They will not need anymore Amphibious landing craft. I am sure they have enough assets in the Black Sea for their navy.
Russia fights better in the cold than any military
 

Citizen-21

Well-known member
Another interesting thing occurred to me reading this Rand report.
The western and southern border regions ARE where Russia has its greatest assets to deploy and project power. However the depth of those regular army and SF are pretty shallow. The bulk of the reinforcements would be conscripts and reservist called up. It would appear to me to be a big gamble for Russia to commit to any major incursion into Ukraine. ANY setback or major losses would put their western front at risk. Not so much at a risk of counter invasion of Russian territory. But simply a destabilizing loss to their strongest most capable military assets.
NATO no matter how weak they appear and in many way are have the resources of the US and Europe to reinforce.
Russian does not have that.

This would NOT play well in Russia domestically. This is speculation on my part here but I would imagine the rank and file Russian is irritated with what they see in Ukraine, legitimately or not. But what would be totally unacceptable to them would be a debilitated and vulnerable western and southern boarder.
Europe isn’t going to invade Russia but renewed ethnic and religious fighting in their southern district remains a concern.
That’s just a personal observation.
You are right about reinforcements and reserves, as of now Russia is making a call to anyone who has combat experience, or proficiently trained and is willing to fight - conscripts are not an option for Ukraine operation, unless there is new Great War and transition of country to a martial law by the Federal Constitutional law. That won't happen this time, i see that the West is still in process of preparation for upcoming war.

Do you want my advice on how to track the coming of war? Follow the legal aspect of the issue. Follow releases and updates of strategic, political and military doctrines, as well as updates in laws. Right now, they are being issued out like hotcakes which is alarming sign - leaders are building the order and goals of a new war to prepare the world for the transition of spheres of influence and economy. They need to carry out careful planning, logistics and calculate the consequences of the economy in order to pay off post-war debts among the circumstances of our new society of a huge level of consumption and complicated routes, to avoid the collapse and problems that arose after the first and second World Wars.
 

Citizen-21

Well-known member
The Military Times is reporting that people suspect Russia is building up for an invasion in late January.

Why would they wait for it to be colder? That's dumb. Russia moved equipment into place in September and now they definitely have everything they need. They will not need anymore Amphibious landing craft. I am sure they have enough assets in the Black Sea for their navy.
Winter is a very good time for war. Ease of movement for vehicles, no annoying mosquitos in swamps and forests, heat and everything.
Soviet Union attacked Finland during the winter by playing on the advantages of this season. Wehrmacht has crushed the Red Army near Moscow with the coming of winter as it's allowed them to move masses of medium tanks off-road on frozen soil, severely boosting operational mobility.
 

Obreid

Power Poster III
For nations with the ability to fight in the cold it is the perfect time, until it’s not.
Then it’s death.
I prepped to travel at night on foot, unless I can make a speed run early on at night hopefully when blistering cold.
No one wants to be out on cold dark nights.
 

Arch

Member
Ex-commander of the Northern Fleet of the Russia, admiral Vyacheslav Popov stated that submarine K-141 Kursk sank because of collision with a NATO submarine in the Barents sea. The submarine, which collided with our submarine, was watching it from a distance, and apparently could not guarantee safety standards in sea conditions and all other conditions at that time, and got too close to our submarine, and perhaps the Kursk maneuver led to a loss of contact. And I know Its name is with a 90% probability, but in order to call it public, we must have hard evidence to provide. I can’t provide that information. In that day, we received a SOS signal that was not given by Kursk, but by the nearby NATO submarine. Later, our MPA found this submarine t off the coast of Norway.

According to Russian and foreign media reports, the nuclear submarines Memphis and Toledo of the US Navy, as well as the British submarine Splendid, were in the exercise area.



I think this should be interpreted in the context of current confrontation between NATO and Russia. The reason why I think so: the owner of "RIA-Novosti" news agency is federal "Russia Today". Admiral Vyacheslav Popov, ex-commander of the Northern Fleet, was interviewed by "RIA-Novosti" last night for no apparent reason. For literally no reason. But this could be a warning addressed to NATO, in particular, because of the exercise in Black sea.
 

Arch

Member
Wehrmacht has crushed the Red Army near Moscow with the coming of winter as it's allowed them to move masses of medium tanks off-road on frozen soil, severely boosting operational mobility.
Offtop (please delete this message after a few days):
I don't think so. On 30 July 1941 Hitler ordered to stop an attack on Moscow. 2nd Panzer Army was directed to Kiev. Panzer Group 3 was directed to Leningrad. After fall of Kiev, on 30 September 1941 Army Group Center resumed their attack on Moscow. But, they faced the mud and off-road. Moreover, Wehrmacht wasn't ready to winter campaign.
 

Citizen-21

Well-known member
1637592318813.png
A delegation from the US Embassy in Ukraine, led by Army Attaché Colonel Brandon Presley, visited the Joint Forces operation area.

Accompanied by the Deputy Commander of the Joint Forces, Brigadier General Anatoly Shevchenko, the members of the delegation visited the forward positions of Ukrainian soldiers near the village of Peski and the town of Marinka in the Donetsk region, as well as forward positions on the Azov Sea.
Americans moving in and visiting frontlines way more often - exactly the same as before 08.08.08 Georgia war.

Also Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia points out about exactly the same development.​

 

Erecon

Active member
Winter is a very good time for war. Ease of movement for vehicles, no annoying mosquitos in swamps and forests, heat and everything.
Soviet Union attacked Finland during the winter by playing on the advantages of this season. Wehrmacht has crushed the Red Army near Moscow with the coming of winter as it's allowed them to move masses of medium tanks off-road on frozen soil, severely boosting operational mobility.
Finland showed the world how a little contry could hold against a bigger neighbor, alot of russian soldiers froze to death in that war. Logistics crushed the Wehrmacht not the winter ( although thats the excuse we always hear or read )
 

rudemarine

Power Poster II
Russia fights better in the cold than any military

Maybe during the war with Napoleon 😆. The US has been training in the cold for 70 years or longer. From Europe, Alaska to the Artic. The US and NATO forces can afford better cold weather gear and lots of it.

Russia makes huge war blunders, if they want to fight in the winter we will make it a total air war before sending our men out there to freeze all day.

I remember seeing the Russian troops trying to run around in the mud of Ukraine, the troops were constantly busting their asses, hiding behind tanks a few minutes a day or bunkerd down in the dug out ground artillery bunkers or shelled out buildings with fires in them to keep them warm because they couldn't do much else.

Our 10th mountain division would have went in there and kicked them right back into Russia, in the cold!!
 

rudemarine

Power Poster II
Finland showed the world how a little contry could hold against a bigger neighbor, alot of russian soldiers froze to death in that war. Logistics crushed the Wehrmacht not the winter ( although thats the excuse we always hear or read )

Yep, Hitler's ignorance trying to fight the world at the same time. He just ran out of equipment, supplies and most importantly tanks. He thought a few great tanks could out due 20 decent tanks.
 
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