DISCUSSION - Eastern European Crises

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Saguenay

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NATO is the puppet of the USA. Let us not forget that the Americans finance 80% of NATO. So who decides? My answer = USA
World conflict in perspective |
 

MikeG

Member
I don’t know. Lately NATO has been really effective at sending “strongly worded messages.” ;)

As for going to war with Russia over a piece of Ukraine…probably not the hill the US or Europe want to die on. It almost feels like bait while the bigger fish takes Taiwan. If we collectively were smart, we’d start playing catch-up on new generations of subs, missiles, and fighters as well as ramping up on asymmetrical warfare if we’ve not already, but who knows what the woke PC generals in charge are thinking. The whole thing is pathetic.
 

MichaelH

Active member
As for going to war with Russia over a piece of Ukraine…probably not the hill the US or Europe want to die on. It almost feels like bait while the bigger fish takes Taiwan. If we collectively were smart, we’d start playing catch-up on new generations of subs, missiles, and fighters as well as ramping up on asymmetrical warfare if we’ve not already, but who knows what the woke PC generals in charge are thinking. The whole thing is pathetic.
In my judgment, that would be the biggest risk for the Russians in particular but also the Chinese in getting a bit more adventurist. It's unlikely even in the face of fairly extreme provocation, but the mobilization capacity of Europe and the US is pretty astonishing. So if the Western bloc generally (including Japan) were to decide that they might really face a serious threat if they don't ramp things up, the balance of power could change pretty fast. Which is one good argument for eating the Ukrainian elephant one bite at a time if you're Putin.
 

rudemarine

Power Poster
If those Russian subs which left port over the last few weeks all suddenly surface along our shores and launch their missiles, will we even have enough time for our leaders (the old career politician in cognitive decline who once supported “launch on impact”) to make a fast enough informed decision to retaliate ( even though it’ll be too late for those of us in target cities) using our outdated MMIIIs and hopefully our subs (assuming they are already in position, weren’t tracked themselves, and obliterated). This is the stuff of nightmares. It’s the scenario I most worry about - the old Soviet Surprise theory.

The president or whoever is actually allowed the permission to launch now has 8 minutes, 8 dam minutes to get our ICBMs and bombers off the ground upon detection of a SLBM launch off our coast.

Only our bombers that are ready to go at a minutes notice from the Midwest will make it in the air in time yet they will have to dodge detonations on their way out. It will be crazy for them to fly north over the ICBM silo states.
 

rudemarine

Power Poster
For me it was the recent combination of armored movements in Russia and Belarus’s posturing. Then their subs putting to sea. Also Europe seems more ramped up this time as well.

Yet NATO is not taking it seriously enough to move enough heavy Armor into the region to do squat about it. Germany can't even bring 8 dam tanks to a NATO exercise anymore yet they keep starting all this crap.

The only hope is Poland and Turkey until France, Britain, and the US join the party with enough reinforcement to kick Russia in the nuts.

The US has Armor in Europe, in storage for this very reason.
 
Although this crisis is very real, I would think that Israel announcing is will strike Iran after Iran said it has ability to make a nuke now from Vienna conference. Israel sources say they will strike if US does not
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
Israel announcing is will strike Iran after Iran said it has ability to make a nuke now from Vienna conference. Israel sources say they will strike if US does not
That isn't quite what Israel said...at least from the sources I could find.

Here, from the Jerusalem Post:

If the US lifts sanctions – along with international sanctions soon to be lifted under the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal – Iran could reach the nuclear threshold within six months, Israel has warned.

At that point, Israel could find it necessary to take unilateral action.
Israel doesn't say what the "unilateral action" is.
 

willrod1989

Active member
So I'm curious- what makes this crisis different than the last one? Thr last time that Russia amassed a huge force along Ukraine's border, we stayed at DEFCON 5. What makes this any different? At this point, it just seems like Putin keeps flexing his muscles without doing much, except sending the West into crisis mode.
 
P

Patrick

Guest
So I'm curious- what makes this crisis different than the last one? Thr last time that Russia amassed a huge force along Ukraine's border, we stayed at DEFCON 5. What makes this any different? At this point, it just seems like Putin keeps flexing his muscles without doing much, except sending the West into crisis mode.
He will invade again eventually. Just a matter of time. The constant bluster and head faking is to get the West to lower their guard for when the real event unfolds. I don’t believe he is stupid enough to risk more civil unrest in his own country that would arise from a bloody attempt to take Kiev but the land bridge is very likely.
 

Alpha98

Member
NATO moving forces and making over threats to intervene. That and NATO's belief that Russia will make for Kiev.
What happens if we get information that NATO starts to mobilize offensive capabilities into Ukraine? I’m sure our discussions will have a different tone because it turn into a concerning development.
 

Alpha98

Member
What happens if we get information that NATO starts to mobilize offensive capabilities into Ukraine? I’m sure our discussions will have a different tone because it turn into a concerning development.
It’ll turn into a concerning development*
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
What happens if we get information that NATO starts to mobilize offensive capabilities into Ukraine? I’m sure our discussions will have a different tone because it turn into a concerning development.
Depends on what the are sending and the size. A few "advisors"? Won't affect anything. A corps? Yeah, that's when I start getting nervous. lol
 

DarkNoon

Power Poster
Depends on what the are sending and the size. A few "advisors"? Won't affect anything. A corps? Yeah, that's when I start getting nervous. lol
War is so instantaneous now. Tbh by the time we know Russian & NATO forces are striking each other is the moment we get a air raid warning. Not to freak anyone out. But during WWII it took 6 months to move 300k troops. That's down to a day or two now. Same goes for all the new fantasy gizmos. Only takes 5 minutes for Russia to hit any side of the US coast. War is instant now. By the time shit hits the fan it will be way to late for any side to dial it down.
 

DarkNoon

Power Poster
Only takes 5 minutes for Russia to hit any side of the US coast. War is instant now. By the time shit hits the fan it will be way to late for any side to dial it down.
Given how fast weapons of war can be delivered makes mistakes all the more probable. The moment the west or russia think a attack is incoming it's all over. No dialing back. This isn't "By Dawn's Early Light.".....
 
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DarkNoon

Power Poster
Given how fast weapons of war can be delivered makes mistakes all the more probable. The moment the west or russia think a attack is income it's all over. No dialing back. This isn't "By Dawn's Early Light.".....
I am assuming this is why this site is at defcon 4...

There is no chance of either side willingly going to war with each other. But rather a mistake blowing up quickly to a war. War is so instant now a simple human mistake can end everything as we know it in minutes or seconds.
 
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DarkNoon

Power Poster
But rather a mistake blowing up quickly to a war.
I was there when capabilities and those who can achieve it where different.

Trying to give some hope. Foriegn or domestic-(US). We US of A have faced greater foes & even greater domestic issues. This isn't the first NOR even the second time world affairs and situations at home-(US) have changed from technology or "progress".

Faith isn't even needed. As in nature things do balance out. So those out there thinking of Civil War we are so far from one realistically. We are also far from a world war.

Humanity has faced darker hours even within the past 50 odd years. The only thing that has changed since our grandparents & parents is how fast we & the world react to things.

It's that instant world we live now. It's not just civilian things but military complications are also instintuanus now. That is the real risk we face now.
 

expat42451

Active member
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