DISCUSSION - Eastern European Crises

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DarkNoon

Power Poster
But in international relations and diplomacy what constitutes an accident?
Misinterpreted moves, actions based off bad intel, one side under/over-estimating taking things to far thinking it will be okay.

Even border skirmish with Poland could turn south real quick if one side misinterprets what is occuring.

With everything being so instantaneous, military decisions also have to made very quickly in any heat of the moment. Its these decisions made by generals & leaders where the mistakes will be made that could drag both sides into a unintended war.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
A lot of scenes in that movie were taken from First Strike.
Another interesting tidbit: The producers and the DOD had a major disagreement because the DOD wanted a line put in the movie that specifically indicated the US did not launch first. The producers refused because they wanted it left unclear as to who launched first. The DOD pulled their technical support from the project.
 

Train

Active member
I really wish the UK made some films other than Threads and the War Game because it’s so fucking good I wanted to watch more (even if people don’t quite believe in nuclear winter anymore). Maybe nuclear war films should make a comeback, too many people think it’ll just be like the game Fallout.

Anyways!
I really like the idea that Putin doesn’t want Ukraine to be his Cuba. Put it into words perfectly.

It’s already an extremely tense situation and I don’t think the shit NATO’s been saying helps at all.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
Misinterpreted moves, actions based off bad intel, one side under/over-estimating taking things to far thinking it will be okay.

Even border skirmish with Poland could turn south real quick if one side misinterprets what is occuring.

With everything being so instantaneous, military decisions also have to made very quickly in any heat of the moment. Its these decisions made by generals & leaders where the mistakes will be made that could drag both sides into a unintended war.
Here’s the catch-22. mistakes over time lead to choices in the immediate.
Vendetta honor killing retribution?

If a nations diplomatic and military policy is flawed it can create the accident that Kicks it off.
The policies were purposeful and preordained to lead to war.

Has the US decision to remove independent launch authority from SMLB commanders set the environment where accidents or missteps are more or less likely to occur?
 

DarkNoon

Power Poster
If a nations diplomatic and military policy is flawed it can create the accident that Kicks it off.
Hey where all human & make mistakes. Military & Government is no different also subjugated to error one way or another.

No such thing as perfect anywhere or in anything/anyone. Only logical to think a mistake will occur when the pressure is high & people start to sweat holding the tiggers by just a hair.
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
I really wish the UK made some films other than Threads and the War Game because it’s so fucking good I wanted to watch more (even if people don’t quite believe in nuclear winter anymore).
There is another one. It's called World War Three: Inside The War Room.

It's a really interesting look at how Britain's leaders would react to a developing situation.

Basically, you'll see some reports on what is happening, then you move to the War Room with people tasked with developing Britain's response. Then you'll get more reports, then back to the War Room, etc. So you're not going to see the Prime Minister or anything like that, but his advisory panel.

What really makes this fascinating is that the people in the War Room are real people who held real positions in the government, pretty much acting the way they would have if this had been real.

It used to be on YouTube, but it isn't there now, which is a pity. Highly recommended.
 

rudemarine

Power Poster
Another interesting tidbit: The producers and the DOD had a major disagreement because the DOD wanted a line put in the movie that specifically indicated the US did not launch first. The producers refused because they wanted it left unclear as to who launched first. The DOD pulled their technical support from the project.

I remember watching that as a kid with my parents when it was first broadcast. My dad knew what would happen being former military, mom was a little surprised but grew up doing the duck and cover crap in school. I was always interested in joining the military so while surprised at the shear power we were facing from the Soviet union I knew we could dish out the same or worse so the odds of anyone starting that war would be insane. I just hoped both sides had a lot of safety controls in place.

I vividly remember our then President Ronald Reagan addressing the nation right after being taken back by the movie and deciding right then that he had to do everything in his power to help rid the world of nuclear weapons.
 

rudemarine

Power Poster
I
There is another one. It's called World War Three: Inside The War Room.

It's a really interesting look at how Britain's leaders would react to a developing situation.

Basically, you'll see some reports on what is happening, then you move to the War Room with people tasked with developing Britain's response. Then you'll get more reports, then back to the War Room, etc. So you're not going to see the Prime Minister or anything like that, but his advisory panel.

What really makes this fascinating is that the people in the War Room are real people who held real positions in the government, pretty much acting the way they would have if this had been real.

It used to be on YouTube, but it isn't there now, which is a pity. Highly recommended.

I found it on Amazon prime. You have to agree to a free trial for bbc select but you can watch it. I am now 😆.
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
I found it on Amazon prime. You have to agree to a free trial for bbc select but you can watch it. I am now
Let me know what you think about it. It's been a while since I've seen it and wonder if it is as good as I remember or if it is a little dry.

I actually have a copy of it. I should go back and watch it again.
 

Train

Active member
Let me know what you think about it. It's been a while since I've seen it and wonder if it is as good as I remember or if it is a little dry.

I actually have a copy of it. I should go back and watch it again.
Is this the one they made a few years back? I remember it drawing a lot of fire from the Russian government for putting them in such a bad light

And I also remember it being quite alarming how fast things can escalate out of control
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
Is this the one they made a few years back? I remember it drawing a lot of fire from the Russian government for putting them in such a bad light

And I also remember it being quite alarming how fast things can escalate out of control
It did come out a few years ago, though I don't remember the Russians saying anything about it. Maybe I missed that part.
 
Things are extremely fast paced when it comes to the war front, if decisions need to go to "the war room" before a country like Britain need to act then I'm pretty sure the war will be over by the time they decide to act...same in the democrat run US congress. On the home front (America) we tend to think if it's over there we have nothing to worry about, however, missiles now travel at lightning speed there's no time to discuss what to do next it'll be too late.
 

DarkNoon

Power Poster
however, missiles now travel at lightning speed there's no time to discuss what to do next it'll be too late.
The term is called use em or lose em. When one side thinks an attack is underway or about to be they launch everything so as to not risking losing all the assets sitting on or in the ground. Which will be the likely reasoning behind any kind of larger scale launch of attack by "mistake" or "misinterpretations".
 

Train

Active member
Things are extremely fast paced when it comes to the war front, if decisions need to go to "the war room" before a country like Britain need to act then I'm pretty sure the war will be over by the time they decide to act...same in the democrat run US congress. On the home front (America) we tend to think if it's over there we have nothing to worry about, however, missiles now travel at lightning speed there's no time to discuss what to do next it'll be too late.
I seem to remember it ending with the advisors panicking about what to do next then learning that a Russian missile was on its way to London

It was a very good show - though it didn’t end with any firey explosions and death it was still quite sobering
 
I seem to remember it ending with the advisors panicking about what to do next then learning that a Russian missile was on its way to London

It was a very good show - though it didn’t end with any firey explosions and death it was still quite sobering
yeah it's hard to stop a train and even harder to stop a super sonic missile
 
N

Nameless_one

Guest
Gotta wonder if and how much of this has to do with Russia's growing relationship with China. Maybe the US strategy now is if we can't break the china alliance up, we are gonna shore up everyone on your western front.
 

rudemarine

Power Poster
Let me know what you think about it. It's been a while since I've seen it and wonder if it is as good as I remember or if it is a little dry.

I actually have a copy of it. I should go back and watch it again.
Definitely unrealistic at the end. I can definitely see Germany pulling that crap. If Russia nuked a US and British carrier killing around nine thousand sailors you can bet the Russians are getting wiped off the face of the earth. They won't get a chance to pull that stunt again. Every Admiral, General and most citizens on both sides of the pond would be screaming for Russian blood or a coup would happen real fast.

We have toys not many people can even dream of to bring to that fight, yet they can not even build a decent stealth fighter or bomber.

We have had hypersonic aircraft for probably ten years now, fighters and bombers. We are working on a stealth F-111 replacement that flies around mach six and has both radar stealth and get this, visual stealth!!

I have heard and felt one of our fast aircraft haul ass up the west coast of Florida one day out in the gulf. Fools thought we had an earthquake because sliding glass doors about came out of their tracks. It had a lot more sonic booms than the space shuttle landing that flew right over us returning to the cape. They were insanely powerful. I know it was flying north because I just happened to be on the phone with a friend that was north of me and he heard it a second after me. It was covered by two F-18s that flew into MacDill from the south and of course the military blamed it on them but they were seen on video flying slow on approach over Sarasota which is south of the base.

I'm guessing they were either scaring Castro or taking a look at something there. They probably scared the hell out of him.
 

rudemarine

Power Poster
yeah it's hard to stop a train and even harder to stop a super sonic missile

Well we have been working on that for years and with decent success. We just don't have enough interceptors and a way to guide ones to targets that move. Yet!! Lasers is going to be the way and Israel already has a system to replace Iron Dome.

If they can power up strong lasers to a few nuclear plants we can tell Russia to go ahead and forget about ever getting any missiles here.

In the 60s we had the Sprint missiles that were insanely fast but they were to detonate nuclear warheads over Canada to take down Soviet bomber formations. Needless to say Canada had a fit and Congress ordered the system be dismantled the same dam day it went live. In typical Congress fashion! We know how to build fast missiles and can guide them. We did it way back then.
 

rudemarine

Power Poster
I seem to remember it ending with the advisors panicking about what to do next then learning that a Russian missile was on its way to London

It was a very good show - though it didn’t end with any firey explosions and death it was still quite sobering

No not in that one. The Brits chose to not respond with an attack even if Russia launched missiles at them. They felt if they were going to get hit they didn't want anymore innocent people to die in Russia just because they got hit which was dumb because they even said their missiles only targeted military installations.

It never showed Russia launching any missiles other than the two SSC-8s from Kaliningrad at our and their Carrier in the Baltic.

The last military move was the US nuking a Russian base in Kaliningrad and then the Brits saying Russia was fueling it's long range ICBMs and talking about what to do if they launch on the US and them. They chose the wussy way out.
 
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