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- Mar 3, 2021
Exclusive satellite imagery of Belarus from the start of September has captured covert radiological warfare exercises by an alliance of post-soviet states, provoking concern among analysts that Russia is committed to hosting nuclear weapons in Belarusian territory.
The intra-day imagery, gathered by geospatial intelligence company BlackSky and then independently verified by specialist defence services company Preligens, exposes the radioactive decontamination of a formation of military vehicles at Bretsky Training Ground, near the borders with both Poland and Ukraine, as part of Exercise Barrier, an exercise intended to prepare ground forces for combat operations in a hazardously irradiated environment.
Evidence from 2 September weakens lingering doubts that nuclear weapon transfer discussions were a political gesture unsubstantiated by tactical preparation. Analysts from the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) and the Polish Institute of International Affairs are considering the possible nuclear sites in Belarus that may host warheads under the watch of Russia’s elite 12th GU MO, the directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defence responsible for its nuclear capability.
Intra-day imagery of the site in Belarus was possible because of the prograde orbit of the BlackSky satellite constellation. Many modern imaging satellite networks use constellations on polar orbits from north to south. This contrasts with BlackSky's satellites moving with the direction of the Earth's rotation. The approach results in a low latency between request and retrieval of imagery, as over any point of the Earth's central bands, a BlackSky satellite traverses every hour. Independent verification of the satellite imagery was conducted with Preligens, a specialist company for artificial intelligence and machine learning in satellite intelligence.
The scale of the Exercise Barrier was on a tactical level, providing a subtle indicator to analysts that Russia’s defence posturing is trending towards nuclear weapons placement in Belarus, according to the analysts consulted for this article. Were the exercises at the strategic level – decontaminating thousands of vehicles every hour – the messaging would be designed to reach a wider audience. However, Alberque is no less stirred by the discrete nature of the signal: “The first warning light has just gone off. Now do you ignore it and pretend your engine is fine, or do you wait for the engine to fall out?”
The decisions to run radiological exercises in Belarus has a bearing on how national security analysts calculate the likely threat landscape. Signaling to the expert community that nuclear weapons are present in Belarus is less about sabre-rattling and bellicose posturing, and has more to do with adding rungs to the ladder of escalation.
The intra-day imagery, gathered by geospatial intelligence company BlackSky and then independently verified by specialist defence services company Preligens, exposes the radioactive decontamination of a formation of military vehicles at Bretsky Training Ground, near the borders with both Poland and Ukraine, as part of Exercise Barrier, an exercise intended to prepare ground forces for combat operations in a hazardously irradiated environment.
Evidence from 2 September weakens lingering doubts that nuclear weapon transfer discussions were a political gesture unsubstantiated by tactical preparation. Analysts from the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) and the Polish Institute of International Affairs are considering the possible nuclear sites in Belarus that may host warheads under the watch of Russia’s elite 12th GU MO, the directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defence responsible for its nuclear capability.
Intra-day imagery of the site in Belarus was possible because of the prograde orbit of the BlackSky satellite constellation. Many modern imaging satellite networks use constellations on polar orbits from north to south. This contrasts with BlackSky's satellites moving with the direction of the Earth's rotation. The approach results in a low latency between request and retrieval of imagery, as over any point of the Earth's central bands, a BlackSky satellite traverses every hour. Independent verification of the satellite imagery was conducted with Preligens, a specialist company for artificial intelligence and machine learning in satellite intelligence.
The scale of the Exercise Barrier was on a tactical level, providing a subtle indicator to analysts that Russia’s defence posturing is trending towards nuclear weapons placement in Belarus, according to the analysts consulted for this article. Were the exercises at the strategic level – decontaminating thousands of vehicles every hour – the messaging would be designed to reach a wider audience. However, Alberque is no less stirred by the discrete nature of the signal: “The first warning light has just gone off. Now do you ignore it and pretend your engine is fine, or do you wait for the engine to fall out?”
The decisions to run radiological exercises in Belarus has a bearing on how national security analysts calculate the likely threat landscape. Signaling to the expert community that nuclear weapons are present in Belarus is less about sabre-rattling and bellicose posturing, and has more to do with adding rungs to the ladder of escalation.
