Geopolitical result of coronavirus outbreak

krzepice1976

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
We have not received any request regarding it from Pakistan Government. But, if such a situation arises and we have resources then we will consider it: Raveesh Kumar on video of Pakistani students in China asking for help from India
 

krzepice1976

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Deeply touched by Pakistanis all over the world. IRON-CLAD friends forever," tweeted the verified account of China's foreign ministry spokesperson, accompanied by a video of well wishes from Pakistanis around the world.

It stands in stark contrast to multiple videos Mr Zulkaif and his friends have posted on social media.


Indian embassy evacuated their citizens from China, shame on you Pakistan," wrote the third-year student at the Hubei University of Science and Technology.

The video has been shared nearly 400 times. Other clips feature appeals in Urdu by other undergraduates -- most of them medical students -- calling on their government to rescue them from a city where they say food is scarce.


Analysts say this is the human cost of diplomatic posturing for a domestic audience.


"China is under great pressure in world politics from the coronavirus outbreak and it is desperate to show solidarity from friendly countries," said Dr Lance Gore, a senior research fellow at Singapore's East Asian Institute.

Much of China's behaviour on the international stage reflects how it exercises power domestically, he said, adding that shoring up support for the ruling party has become "second nature" for Chinese officials.
nce the authorities shut down the province in a bid to contain the spread of the virus, which originated in provincial capital Wuhan, universities have also placed their campuses on lockdown.

Mr Appiah, 25, said there are no plans by Ghana to get its citizens out. The World Health Organisation warned last month that the virus could overwhelm public health systems on the African continent, which so far has no confirmed infections.


 

KimPossible

Power Poster
China micromanages the lives of it citizens, shut down of entire cities, and silence unsanctioned media outlets all at the whim of policy makers. Such powers are useful in emergencies such as case to date.

However the authority of the communist party has raised public expectations in terms of services, defense, governance, and overall quality of life. So when the Beijing government mismanages a outbreak, the ruling party is labeled incompetent and illegitimate.

Even sharing information can be perceived as political weakness in paternalistic societies which is why it took the Chinese leadership 30 days to report first 2019Cov** related pneumonia case to World Health Organization and another two weeks for the central government to intervene.

Granted the problems facing China would bedevil any government. China is a large densely populated nation especially its coast line making the pandemic containment unique.

But now Beijing has come out into the open about its pandemic strategy, so now national and sub national pandemic strategies will be openly tested.

The very legitimacy of the communist party is at stake.


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Edit: grammar & miss spelling
 
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KimPossible

Power Poster
In-depth analysis:

Whether its Ebola, Zika, bird flu, SARS, or MERS, it seems that every year a new lethal disease comes out and shakes up the status quo. The story in the media is evolving faster than the pathogen. Be that as it may, the greatest danger from pandemics comes from public panic and government responses, not the disease itself.

Every new disease whether its global or local has the potential to inflict geopolitical consequences. The severity of the out break depends on factors such as how the virus transmits, how lethal it is, and how integrated the country of origin is with the rest of the international community. Since public health is part of national security an outbreak not only results in the loss of life but also disrupts politics, trade, production, and in some cases even ongoing conflicts.

Although it is impossible to forecast the next outbreak or even where it will strike, some areas are at higher risk than others. Climate, demographics, and sanitation etc. can each increase the odd of an outbreak for a specific region. For example, in Asia pacific the rate of urbanization and population density is growing strong and more people are traveling further, faster, and more often than ever before. At the same time the degradation of soil and desertification which again is true for Asia allows infectious disease of tropical origin to spread far and wide.

Asia is also home to 60 percent of the worlds diabetes populous and it’s the fastest aging continent. Why and emphasis on diabetes and old age, well because they compromise the immune system, making people more susceptible to diseases. So rapid urbanization and environmental degradation, and weaken immune systems make Asia pacific ground zero for outbreaks. Once an outbreak occurs a different set of rules determines how it might subsequently spread and effects. For instance, the properties of the strain, how fast it transmits from host to host shows, as well how lethal it is all decide impact of the disease.

In nearly all cases a virus tends be either deadly or communicable, only a rare exception does a virus have both properties. This somewhat limits the capacity to do damage. Other factors effect infectious patterns like trade, migration, and transportation. These influence how quickly pathogens can spread beyond the county of its origins.

But perhaps greatest danger of a new virus comes from public panic and government responses, not the strain itself. You see when public panics politicians get involve who than start relocating funds from other infectious diseases like Malaria, TB, and Hepatitis B to combat new hyped up virus. TB for instance killed more than 1.5 million people in 2018 but since that doesn’t make the news politicians could move funds to fight the new virus. The decision sets the public at ease and earns law makers some politic points but can also result more TB related deaths than a new virus can muster. Point and case the action of governments is dangerous as pandemics or epidemics if not even more.

In the case of Covid-2019 it is hitting china at particular bad time. With protest in Hong Kong, internment camps, economic slowdown, and trade disputes the last thing Beijing leadership needs is an outbreak of infectious virus at a time million of its citizens planned to travel across the country to celebrate traditional festivities. Furthermore, considering that the city Wuhan sit at the cross road of China coastal area the government decision to lock down the city will result in economic disruptions much like SARS and MERS* outbreaks in the past. But there are reasons to believe that the new Wuhan Covid-2019 will be economically more disruptive than previous out breaks.

Covid-2019 is a different strain than SARS and MERS* but if the new disease is anything like the previous ones the damage will be limited over the long term. The average death rate of the Covid-2019 stands somewhere between 2 and 4 percent. Versus 9% for SARS and 34% for MERS*. Though it should be noted that the death rate for elderly jumps to 50% percent as well the case MERS*. But the thing that truly sets the Covid-2019 apart from other Corona virus diseases is the ease of human to human transmission and it lengthy incubation period.

This makes preparing, detecting, tracking, monitoring, and an effective containment strategy substantially more difficult. For perspective it took about 270 days for SARS to be controlled. By the end of the epidemic resulted in 40 billion dollars lost GDP for China. While the global ran at 100 billion dollars. If the Covid-2019 spread as wildly as SARS its damage will be more profound.

Much of east and south east Asia rely on Chinese tourist to stimulate economic growth. Thailand is/will get hit especial bad since 5% of its GDP growth comes from Chinese tourists. Japan could lose up to 25 Billion Dollars as the new virus will overshadow the 2020 summer Olympics.

For China the stakes even higher. The authorities have suspended road, air, water way, and railway transit in and out of Wuhan and 15 other cities. This will have profound consequences. Wuhan is a major domestic transportation hub, as well as the center of manufacturing, heavy industry, and scientific research. The closure of the City will disrupt traffic, trade, and maritime shipment though Yang Sea River.

In turn this will affect economic well being in port cities such as Shanghai. Like MERS and SARS it is expected that in infections for Covid-2019 will decree by spring and eventually fade away in the summer. If this goes accordingly the Beijing government could lift its restriction by the end of March.

How ever the trouble is roughly 5 million people left Wuhan city before the quarantine began. That means tens of thousands of people could be spreading the disease around the world right now. But we can’t be certain due to the long incubation period of the virus. If the later scenario is true the number of international infections will rise dramatically.

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Edit: Spelling mistakes, grammar.
 
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Obreid

Power Poster
In my mind because of the economic impact.
It has the possibility of destabilizing a nation.
What might that nations leaders do to divert attention or blame
 

KimPossible

Power Poster
In my mind because of the economic impact.
It has the possibility of destabilizing a nation.
What might that nations leaders do to divert attention or blame
I would assume nothing. The government would be scrabbling to seize control of the situation by using most or all resources. So no time and recourses to do anything militaraly as it would be tide up to keep order and no one to place blame because it is widly known that viruses are very prone to the Asian Pacific so no blame to be placed.

BUT this virus like all other coronaviruses will be contained at a great cost to GDP and fade out when summer comes.
 
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krzepice1976

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Wow
"Executives say large container ships are leaving Chinese ports as little as 10% full, and sailings are being canceled as carriers brace for a financial retreat"
 

Travis The Dragon

Well-known member
In my mind because of the economic impact.
It has the possibility of destabilizing a nation.
What might that nations leaders do to divert attention or blame
The thing is krzypice is putting the same types of articles in this thread as in the other one so it's a bit confusing.
 

KimPossible

Power Poster
Stocks fall around the world as the coronavirus outbreak spreads:

South Korea's Kospi fell 2.9% in early trading Monday as novel coronavirus cases in the country surged past 600.

Dow futures, meanwhile, were down more than 300 points, or 1.1%. S&P 500 futures were down 1.2%, and Nasdaq futures were down 1.6%. The Dow closed 228 points lower on Friday, and all three indexes recorded a weekly loss.

Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.3%, while China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.5%. Japan markets were closed Monday for a holiday.

Oil takes a dip: Oil futures tumbled, too. US futures fell 2.7% to trade at $51.92 per barrel. Brent crude, a global oil benchmark, lost 3% and was last trading at $56.75 per barrel.

 
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