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Global Escalation Risk Calculations

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Lostpuppy

Lostpuppy

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Mar 3, 2022
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Thoughts on escalation, potenial, NO CLICK BAIT CRAP!
Research your educated thoughts, drill into it!
Method is the magic, Calndestine number stations , who profits, who loses, game it out
Transport of intersting parts, components
The whos who, of which nation is in bed for who?
Not all intel nets are aware of crap, and sometimes they sit in their defined think box.
Stick with the narrative by their bosses, and fail to tell leaders about the new clothes they are wearing…..

We have a pkace where we get to agree and disagree,
debate the point. we have alot if smart savy people here…
Whats if are always great, but you prepare for all eventualities dont you ?

Game on!
 
As we see the war build regionally, heard this on media Tv, so drilling

Madrid: Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Wednesday reiterated his strong opposition to the US and Israel’s military actions in Iran, brushing aside fresh trade threats from Washington and warning that the conflict risks “playing Russian roulette” with millions of lives.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday threatened to halt trade with Spain after Madrid refused to allow the United States to use joint military bases on Spanish soil for strikes against Iran.

madhyamamonline.com

Spain’s Sanchez defies Trump trade threat, reaffirms ‘no to war’ on Iran

Pedro Sánchez rejected US pressure to back military action against Tehran, warning the conflict risks devastating consequences and vowing Spain will not allow its bases to be used despite trade threats from Washington.
madhyamamonline.com madhyamamonline.com
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
This seems pretty regional. The problem Iran has is that it is hated by pretty much everyone. Who is going to come to its defence?
Click to expand...
Almost like they backed into a corner, choices are getting limited , and as each group of new command gets dealt with,
I cant imagine how long they hold the good people of Iran as”hostage”,
🤔
 
Lostpuppy said:
Almost like they backed into a corner...
Click to expand...
Yeah, this is what worries me. Even a shrew will attack a large predator if cornered. I'm wondering what Iran has up its sleeve for just such an eventuality.
 
With how extensively Iranian top leadership has been infiltrated i have no doubts if there were a nuke we'd know about it and where it is.
 
JPod said:
With how extensively Iranian top leadership has been infiltrated i have no doubts if there were a nuke we'd know about it and where it is.
Click to expand...
I dont think there is a nuke involved, they pretty behind the 8 ball, best time to play it, is now, or they are waiting( burnt earth think). Will some sleeper come and haunt ? Maybe🤔. If there was a delay plan to deploy a nuke , its somewhere not in iran, only a guess.
Best case, they dont have one, and keep everyone in fear and guessing.
None of the above is making peace
 
DEFCON Warning System said:
This seems pretty regional. The problem Iran has is that it is hated by pretty much everyone. Who is going to come to its defence?
Click to expand...
Turkey, for strategic reasons, because of the Kurds, if it is true that the USA is arming the Kurds, Turkey does not like this.

In fact, it's not a question of love, it's a question of strategy and the interests of each of the Middle Eastern countries.
Let's just say the situation is fluid; it's difficult to predict the outcome.
 
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Turkey is planning to establish a buffer zone on the Iranian side of the border if a worst-case scenario unfolds and the government in Tehran collapses, Middle East Eye understands.

www.middleeasteye.net

Turkey plans buffer zone if Iran government falls

Ankara draws up plans to prevent a wave of potential refugees in case of a US attack on Iran
www.middleeasteye.net www.middleeasteye.net

Refugee crisis worse that Syria, Kurds wants a slice of land for a free state
 
AI:

(*T. Casey Fleming’s Book, "The Red Tsunami" argues that China is waging a non-kinetic, "whole-of-society" war against the U.S. through economic, cyber, and cognitive channels, fundamentally altering traditional conflict dynamics. While the book's themes align with discussions on hybrid warfare, suggesting that Asymmetric Human Warfare (AHW) allows China to bypass traditional escalation rungs to weaken the U.S. without triggering military responses.)

*The Red Tsunami: The Silent Storm Killing Your Freedom January 20, 2026by T Casey Fleming (Author)ISBN-10: 1962578755.

Have any of the learned academics and experts on the Defcon Warning System forum "Global Escalation Risk Calculations" investigated this writing and formulated an opinion as to its validity of China bypassing traditional rungs?

Having a rudimentary understanding of the Escalation Ladder, I wonder how the above publication affects the Global Escalation Risk Ladder?

It is intriguing that China in The Past, Present, and Future non-Kinetic war with the USA and rest of world have on the decision rungs within the Ladder. Such as China’s use of Iran’s Terror Organization and Proxies to Disrupt the West.
 
I hav
Ovz said:
AI:

(*T. Casey Fleming’s Book, "The Red Tsunami" argues that China is waging a non-kinetic, "whole-of-society" war against the U.S. through economic, cyber, and cognitive channels, fundamentally altering traditional conflict dynamics. While the book's themes align with discussions on hybrid warfare, suggesting that Asymmetric Human Warfare (AHW) allows China to bypass traditional escalation rungs to weaken the U.S. without triggering military responses.)

*The Red Tsunami: The Silent Storm Killing Your Freedom January 20, 2026by T Casey Fleming (Author)ISBN-10: 1962578755.

Have any of the learned academics and experts on the Defcon Warning System forum "Global Escalation Risk Calculations" investigated this writing and formulated an opinion as to its validity of China bypassing traditional rungs?

Having a rudimentary understanding of the Escalation Ladder, I wonder how the above publication affects the Global Escalation Risk Ladder?

It is intriguing that China in The Past, Present, and Future non-Kinetic war with the USA and rest of world have on the decision rungs within the Ladder. Such as China’s use of Iran’s Terror Organization and Proxies to Disrupt the West.
Click to expand...
Sounds an interesting read, China no doubt, desires a non kinetic war , economics as a prime concern, ideological infusion by populace and social retraining is much more the profile of a Chinese long game, Population dilution has been used many times in History, China (ugiar) Soviet Union (sattelite states) the Americas( Mayan , Atzec).

Did the book take into account the full Iranian situation? the world chokepoints?

I will when the tactical data flow slows have read, I am intrigued.
 
I am runing a multi AI assement of world situations, after running conclusion with my think team I will get the conclusion up🤞🏻 With a very fluid military equation there is alot of input points.
 

No One, Not Even Beijing, Is Getting Through the Strait of Hormuz​

www.csis.org

No One, Not Even Beijing, Is Getting Through the Strait of Hormuz

As war chokes off traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Chinese ships are not getting special treatment. New ship-tracking data shows Chinese vessels have largely halted transits, underscoring Beijing’s exposure to instability in a region critical to its energy security.
www.csis.org www.csis.org
 
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DEFCON Warning System said:
This seems pretty regional. The problem Iran has is that it is hated by pretty much everyone. Who is going to come to its defence?
Click to expand...
correction it's the IRGC not the iranian people. once the people take back the country ( hopefully ) things will return to normal. ( maybe ) if calculated well its going to be a big war, if not it will fizzle out and world powers will have broken hearts that they couldn't destroy the world. ( oh well )
 
Is the Strait Of Hormuz Closed? No, What ? Really?
Iranian broadcast to ships on VHF Channel 16 that the Strait of Hormuz was closed and no ships would be allowed to pass grabbed the headlines that the waterway was shut. Again, in the past 24 hours were the statements by Ebrahim Jabbari, a senior adviser to the Commander-in-Chief of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), on Iranian TV saying: “The Strait of Hormuz has been closed. We will attack and set ablaze any ship attempting to cross.” The result is headlines in the mainstream media saying the Strait of Hormuz is closed.


Would you ship insurance cover? Is It worth Risk?🤔
 
Belt and Road projects tied to Iranian ports, rail corridors and energy infrastructure now face heightened instability and security risk. The vision of a secure overland energy corridor insulated from U.S. naval power has been reduced to uncertainty.

www.hudson.org

China Bet Its Middle East Strategy on Iran. That Bet Has Failed.

For more than a decade, Beijing has worked quietly and methodically to turn Iran into the keystone of its Middle East strategy. That strategy has now collapsed.
www.hudson.org www.hudson.org
 
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