Hypothetical Discussion - Russia Takes Ukraine by Coup

How plausible is this hypothetical scenario?

  • Very Plausible

    Votes: 5 15.6%
  • Possible

    Votes: 17 53.1%
  • Highly Improbable

    Votes: 9 28.1%
  • Impossible

    Votes: 1 3.1%

  • Total voters
    32

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
Carryover from the real crisis discussion thread, here is the hypothetical situation:

Putin has become convinced that he cannot move into SE Ukraine without risking a military confrontation with NATO forces. Therefore, he assists with overthrowing the existing Ukrainian government and installs a puppet government in its place that immediately "requests" the presence of Russian troops on Ukrainian soil in order to deter EU and NATO "aggression."

Questions:
1: How likely a scenario is this? (The US has been doing exactly this for decades)
2: What would the internal political consequences be for Putin?
3: How would NATO and the EU react?
 

Obreid

Power Poster
It could not take and hold an intact Ukraine without Russian troops or little green men.
The nationalist in the east and military in general is too well armed as compared to 2014. They would lose alone but the cost would be to high to escape attention and condemnation.
Ukrainian didn’t elect a strongman this time and as far as I know his support is still there.
So I don’t think a coup is viable, unrest in the east yes.

But I’ll ask the same thing I ask before if Russia has no intentions of interference or incursion into Ukraine why all the troop movements why the constant military drills? Why the Belarus gambit at hybrid warfare?
Mostly it’s about access to energy markets I suspect.
But aside from that IF Russia were to just dial the troop movements and militarization back. IF Belarus would just act like a nation state rather than a Bratva supported state Nato would go back to sleep. They would buy Russian gas and Ukraine would become less of an issue.

The question is is it possible Russia will try and reclaim even more of Ukraine, yes its possible.
Is NATO going to invade Russia ever Why? NATO invading Russia is a straw man argument.,
So in this case Russia is causing its own problems not NATO.
 
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DarkNoon

Power Poster
My hypotheses exact. Seems everyone is thinking as I am. Its possible. But its questionable for sure.

If it does occur it would indeed be out of the US foreign policy book as RiffRaff said. As for the West reaction to this is hard to predict as well.

But Ukraine for almost a straight week has repeatedly warned of such a event. Even main steam media is picking up the possible coup. Somthing I wanted people to pick appart here and glad you guys are.
 

DarkNoon

Power Poster
This is as mainstream media as you get. You can see they too are picking it up and taking it seriously:
Which I am really surprised mainstream media picked this up or is even reporting about it.
 
a coup attempt could be a faint to distract forces away from s/e Ukrainian so the little green men can make a land bridge to Russia and also capture the two dams stopping water getting to Crimea.......the coup could also be Russian troops looking like Ukrainian nationals, they need to get in and dug in before spring so NATO cant react in time to help.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
a coup attempt could be a faint to distract forces away from s/e Ukrainian so the little green men can make a land bridge to Russia and also capture the two dams stopping water getting to Crimea.......the coup could also be Russian troops looking like Ukrainian nationals, they need to get in and dug in before spring so NATO cant react in time to help.
True but I am not sure it would work this time but I could be wrong.
British and other European officials are revisiting the Crimean issue at this time like its back on the actual table. That would take real military force to remove Russia from there now.
So it leads me to believe Europe is unwilling to concede anymore of Ukraine to Russia.
Never forget the long standing norms and agreements both in the west and Russia were Crimea and Donetsk WERE part of Ukraine. They where not grudgingly seeded territories by Russia.
So all treaties are void no matter how much Russia wants to complain.

IF Ukrainian wants M1 Abraham’s and NATO jets stationed in Ukraine tough. Putin should have thought of that in 2014.
It’s his his unforced foul.
 

bartok

Member
That would certainly get NATOs attention as it would put Russian troops on the border with Poland.

I think coup but without the troops.

But, how do a coup without troops? Russia doesn't have ONGs infiltrated in Ukraine that can organize street protests as a prelude for a coup: the russophone people are numerous, but harmless.

I think that also this time all will finish in nothing. But, if something happens, it is likely that Russia will be very firm. Taking the SE is not so useful: in facts, Russia has already taken the SE. The problem, for Russia, is not only and not much the spiteful and sporadic bored random bombing of Ukraine forces over the Donbass, but the NATO friendly build up in the remaining Ukraine. Invading the SE is as to invade a territory already controlled and this is not preventing of further build up in Ukraine: is likely to incentivize it. So, if Russia will do something in Ukraine, I don't expect that it will be shy.

So:
1: Possible, by blitzkrieg.
2: Blame, as usual.
3: it depends. The EU, that is practically NATO without US, is completely demilitarized and fearful, so maybe it will stay passive. but, it is true that in EU we are living a phase of madness and unawareness, so it is also possible that we will do something extremely stupid in the most total shallowness way. Generally speaking, the level of unpredictability is very hight. And this very dangerous.
 
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rudemarine

Power Poster
I can see Russia make the current leader look like an idiot with a barge of fake news and then flood the streets with protesters which would be Ukrainians loyal to Russia and Russian FSB in plain clothes and then cause mass confusion in Kiev with their spies and FSB the way German intelligence did in 2014 firing shots randomly into the crowds.

Then Russia bust into Ukraine with their military blaming everything on Nazis, saying they need to save the innocent people.
 

Citizen-21

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Current Ukraine is nothing more but US puppet state, and Americans are highly displeased by Zelensky's performance, as he failed his task to get rid of the corruption in country, that disrupts American operations within the country - their contacts in Ukraine simply waste all the money they get. Russia might play on that part, but propability is really low, i expect it's as another coup made by US for changing Ukraine administration into something more worthwhile of their needs.
 
I’m still curious where those subs took off to. Sitting off our west coast listening to our rock and roll while conducting missile drills?
Well there are 2 places they could be 1. just off the west coast or 2. hiding under the ice by north pole. they have been practicing to have multiple subs punch holes in the ice so they can fire missiles off.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
Well there are 2 places they could be 1. just off the west coast or 2. hiding under the ice by north pole. they have been practicing to have multiple subs punch holes in the ice so they can fire missiles off.
Is it possible for a foreign sub to enter the Gulf of Mexico without us knowing it? Because almost all of our land-based missile detection systems are pointed towards the north pole. A missile launched from the south would only be detected by satellite.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
Is it possible for a foreign sub to enter the Gulf of Mexico without us knowing it? Because almost all of our land-based missile detection systems are pointed towards the north pole. A missile launched from the south would only be detected by satellite.
And come to think about it, Russia just conducted a satellite kill test...
 

willrod1989

Active member
And come to think about it, Russia just conducted a satellite kill test...
Russia threatened to kill all of the GPS satellites. Just think of the mayhem that would cause, for both the military and civilians.

Also, I don't think it's a coincidence that Russia would be more than willing to let civilians worldwide use their GLONASS system.
 

DarkNoon

Power Poster
Russia threatened to kill all of the GPS satellites. Just think of the mayhem that would cause, for both the military and civilians.

Also, I don't think it's a coincidence that Russia would be more than willing to let civilians worldwide use their GLONASS system.
That would be war. No other way to slice it. If I heard that GPS satellite are being shot down I'm in my bugout boat and getting as far away as possible from the Bay Area.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
That would be war. No other way to slice it. If I heard that GPS satellite are being shot down I'm in my bugout boat and getting as far away as possible from the Bay Area.
Not a bad idea JUST make sure you have paper charts, compass, reliable watch and sextant😂😂😂
 
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