Hypothetical Discussion - Russia Takes Ukraine by Coup

How plausible is this hypothetical scenario?

  • Very Plausible

    Votes: 5 15.6%
  • Possible

    Votes: 17 53.1%
  • Highly Improbable

    Votes: 9 28.1%
  • Impossible

    Votes: 1 3.1%

  • Total voters
    32

DarkNoon

Power Poster
Random question. Anyone know are Russian subs equipped with MRV missiles? If remember correctly they do because Russian missiles are rather inaccurate so more the merrier.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
I know how to navigate. Have star charts as well.
Oh I’m just making fun of the irony going to sea and the go to navigation tool is gone. I wasn’t even thinking of your skills.
It’s like land navigation at night in wild.
If you don’t have good map or knowledge of area compass or clear sky’s your going in circles
 

DarkNoon

Power Poster
As far as I know they are.
Looked it up each Russian sub can carry from 4-10 MRV:
The Borei and Borei-A designs are Russia's most advanced ballistic missile submarines. ... The Delta IVs can be armed with up to 16 R-29RMU Sineva submarine-launched ballistic missiles, themselves capable of each carrying either 4 or 10 MIRVs, again depending on the warhead type. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/39953/three-russian-ballistic-missile-submarines-just-surfaced-through-the-arctic-ice-together#:~:text=The Borei and Borei-A,most advanced ballistic missile submarines.&text=The Delta IVs can be,depending on the warhead type.
 

DarkNoon

Power Poster
Oh I’m just making fun of the irony going to sea and the go to navigation tool is gone. I wasn’t even thinking of your skills.
It’s like land navigation at night in wild.
If you don’t have good map or knowledge of area compass or clear sky’s your going in circles
Personally think you shouldn't own a boat on the seas unless you know how to navigate without GPS. Just in case anyways. You never know.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
Random question. Anyone know are Russian subs equipped with MRV missiles? If remember correctly they do because Russian missiles are rather inaccurate so more the merrier.
Russia's targeting technology was far behind ours, but they've caught up. That's why both Russia and the US have done away with the multi-megaton yield warheads. With precise targeting capabilities, four 250 kiloton warheads with overlapping blast radius can do way more damage than a single 1 megaton warhead, even thought the total expended yield is identical.

The alleged 100 MT warhead on the submarine drone doesn't count, as it has a different purpose than airbursting over a city.
 
R

Retro

Guest
Russia's targeting technology was far behind ours, but they've caught up. That's why both Russia and the US have done away with the multi-megaton yield warheads. With precise targeting capabilities, four 250 kiloton warheads with overlapping blast radius can do way more damage than a single 1 megaton warhead, even thought the total expended yield is identical.

The alleged 100 MT warhead on the submarine drone doesn't count, as it has a different purpose than airbursting over a city.
I was aware the US prefered smaller yield warheads but I had no idea that Russia had gone the same way. Has this ever been confirmed?
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
I was aware the US prefered smaller yield warheads but I had no idea that Russia had gone the same way. Has this ever been confirmed?
It's my understanding that due to both various strategic arms treaties and better weapons and guidance technologies, the US and Russia were down to 1 to 1.5 MT being the largest active warheads, and even those represent less than 3% of total active warheads. China still has 5 MT warheads in active service, but I think they are the only nuclear power still relying on those old large-yield weapons.

I could be mistaken. I'll look into it if I have time today.
 
S

scoobie doo

Guest
I think the scenario Riff Raff suggested makes the most sense...all things being equal. What worries me however is that the US has never looked weaker after leaving Afghanistan the way we did, thousands of our troops are being told they will be dismissed if they don't get vaccinated, and the troops that remain are being fed a steady diet of alphabet soup (LGBTQ, etc.). However enlightened that might seem to the liberal narrative in our country, it telegraphs to Russia and China that the US military and our country's leadership is in disarray and not in a position to give any believable deterrence. I wonder if the scenario being suggested is relying too much on the idea that Russia respects the present state of our military deterrence. A straight out invasion to take Kiev would give Russia a huge victory and the benefits (political and otherwise) that come with it more so than a sneaky coup. I agree, it feels unlikely....but that is what worries me.
 

King Crab

New member
I don't see this highly probably at all. Where are the thousands of thousands in the capital protesting Zolensky and Ukranines western postured policies ? I see people celebrating Xmas with presents and festivals every day life similiar to South Korea in denial of what's looming on their door step. I believe the Federation is actually helping the western cause by forcefully pushing policies of Putins way or the highway..or in this case war. This causes resentment and of course patriotism which will further push people away from seeing the Federation as heroes to rescue rather foreign invaders.
 

Texasryan

Active member
I actually believe it’s more plausible than most think. Sure, they don’t have protests. YET.

But all the news coming out about their gas prices rising. Russia may not have to fire a shot. They raise the gas prices in EU which gives their gas to Ukraine and boom….

Here’s an article about the Ukrainian general talking about what’s happening.

 
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