All signs point to Iran. It seems fishy they would release prisoners even if money is short. The new government is trying to keep control but can't. Because the only way to appease the demands of Irans militias is to call the election a fraud and put in a Iranian backed government.So is the regime there attempting to broker a deal among their dissatisfied groups by releasing militants? Or is there some more purely political angle that I don't understand?
It is unclear who they will be releasing but one can imagine it will be Shia/Iran prisoners given everything I mentioned above.by releasing militants?
Can you give us your assessment given the seriousness of current events? @RiffRaff @DEFCON Warning System?[BREAKING NEWS]
[Analysis Based on Gatherer Info]
Biden will have to withdraw US troops. Explains why all the extra transport aircraft in the regional area especially in U.A.E.... US building contingency plans for the collapse of Iraq. Only thing that adds any of this up or put it together that makes sense.
Well this is embarrassing, funding for Iraqi shite militia groups in the latest NDAA.
Dems Back Measure to Give Aid to Iraqi Militia Groups Tied to Iran
Democratic leaders in the House are backing a measure to provide U.S. assistance to Iraqi militia groups that are known to be dominated by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.freebeacon.com
Short-term? Just another failed and collapsed Middle East government due to the inept attempts of the US government to establish democratic countries in the region. Iraq does not have nuclear weapons, so there is little risk of any nuclear consequences.Can you give us your assessment given the seriousness of current events? @RiffRaff @DEFCON Warning System?
I believe the Iran-Iraq merger was a plot point in a Tom Clancy novel, but can't remember which one. In the real world it does seem that the pan-Arabic movements of the past have lost steam, but it would be interesting to see what an Iranian puppet regime in Iraq would do to that equation.Short-term? Just another failed and collapsed Middle East government due to the inept attempts of the US government to establish democratic countries in the region. Iraq does not have nuclear weapons, so there is little risk of any nuclear consequences.
Long-term? At the very least the return of Daesh and/or Al Qaeda, creating even more instability in a region that already has enough problems as it is. A possible worse-case scenario is the collapse of Afghanistan and Iraq in such a short period of time creating two power vacuums next to a couple of very powerful Middle East countries, one of which is a declared nuclear power, the other of which is a suspected nuclear power, perhaps leading to territory expansion into Iraq, Afghanistan, or both.
Israel is the wild card. At what point will they decide that the instability is too unstable and attempt to take matters into their own hands, escalating the situation even further?
Yep we’re left with the scenario of Israel believing the US is going to be weak and non attentive in the Mideast and forcing them to act unilaterally to stop a perceived threat.Short-term? Just another failed and collapsed Middle East government due to the inept attempts of the US government to establish democratic countries in the region. Iraq does not have nuclear weapons, so there is little risk of any nuclear consequences.
Long-term? At the very least the return of Daesh and/or Al Qaeda, creating even more instability in a region that already has enough problems as it is. A possible worse-case scenario is the collapse of Afghanistan and Iraq in such a short period of time creating two power vacuums next to a couple of very powerful Middle East countries, one of which is a declared nuclear power, the other of which is a suspected nuclear power, perhaps leading to territory expansion into Iraq, Afghanistan, or both.
Israel is the wild card. At what point will they decide that the instability is too unstable and attempt to take matters into their own hands, escalating the situation even further?
Saudis & U.A.E will have to act too against Iran. This is where my prediction awhile ago that Israel will take out Iran with the help of Saudis, U.A.E, & US logistical support. Believe me & @DEFCON Warning System got into a argument over a first strike by Israel & allied muslim forces war against Iran.Yep we’re left with the scenario of Israel believing the US is going to be weak and non attentive in the Mideast and forcing them to act unilaterally to stop a perceived threat.
The situation is very fluid as the like to say.
&The idea is US wouldn't use boots. Just our air power. After Afghanistan Biden isn't going to risk US troops. Israel and allied muslim nations do the dirty work on the ground.
I only say this because a lot of muslim nations are cozying up to Israel mostly because of their common foe Iran. With Bidens commitment to building up Muslim Israeli relationships in the region it is a very logical assumption.
If US and Israel can gather even just a little support from other regional nations its gonna happen.
But if one is looking at the Chess board Muslim nations are cozying up to Israel. The idea is flowing in that direction.
Are you sure the new Iraqi government is Sunni, it looks like Shiite to me?Iraq is on a knife edge of civil war all fueled by Iran to further divide Shia & Sunni relations. Iran is Shia & new Iraq government is Sunni.
Woops. Your right. Glad you spotted that I easily mix them up. But it is fueled by Shia to remove the leader which is Sunni.Are you sure the new Iraqi government is Sunni, it looks like Shiite to me?