Israel - Hamas War - Discussion | Jan - April 2024

[intel-bank]

How has no one else noticed this? Thanks for sharing @Torch
The numbers make little sense. e.g. there is little connection between women and children deaths. I would expect one.

I shared this with a statistician, I'll get back to you on what they think.

This is absolutely true, thankfully we can take the IDF themselves and work backwards to determine death tolls.

In December 2023, over 2 months ago, when combatant deaths were 5000 according to Israel, an official of the IDF claimed a civillian death ratio of 2:1, 2 civillians to 1 terrorist.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-officials-2-civilian-deaths-for-every-1-hamas-fighter-killed-in-gaza/

Assuming that ratio stayed the same, which given the nature of this war it likely has, if not even increased.

On February 20th, the IDF claimed 12,000 Hamas terrorists were killed.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-says-12000-hamas-fighters-killed-in-gaza-war-double-the-terror-groups-claim/

So, let's just do the math real quick. 24,000 civillian dead at 2:1

It's really no surprise that the US state department and several international organizations seem to believe the GHM reports are accurate.

 

[Friendly Engineer]

How has no one else noticed this? Thanks for sharing @Torch
The numbers make little sense. e.g. there is little connection between women and children deaths. I would expect one.

I shared this with a statistician, I'll get back to you on what they think.

Follow up on this: Israel - Hamas War Reports | 3/1 - 3/31 2024

I had a word with the statistician today and I realised that their data is flawed. Here's a graph from Reuters (using the Gaza health ministry data) showing deaths.

The area highlighted in green is the only set of data analysed by the newspaper. They argue that the lack of 'randomness' in the data in green means the numbers are invented, made up, false.
However, you can clearly see before the green area that the data looks more random.

This invalidates their analysis because they have cherry picked a small time window and drawn conclusions from that data. For an accurate representation they should've looked at a larger range of dates. The only reason I can think of why they didn't is because they had their conclusion in mind before they analysed the data, i.e. their bias played a big role in curating their data!

This is an American-Jewish newspaper and they have clearly showed their bias in the selection of data. I wouldn't trust their conclusions @Torch

 

[Friendly Engineer]

Follow up on this: Israel - Hamas War Reports | 3/1 - 3/31 2024

I had a word with the statistician today and I realised that their data is flawed. Here's a graph from Reuters (using the Gaza health ministry data) showing deaths.
View attachment 5211
The area highlighted in green is the only set of data analysed by the newspaper. They argue that the lack of 'randomness' in the data in green means the numbers are invented, made up, false.
However, you can clearly see before the green area that the data looks more random.

This invalidates their analysis because they have cherry picked a small time window and drawn conclusions from that data. For an accurate representation they should've looked at a larger range of dates. The only reason I can think of why they didn't is because they had their conclusion in mind before they analysed the data, i.e. their bias played a big role in curating their data!

This is an American-Jewish newspaper and they have clearly showed their bias in the selection of data. I wouldn't trust their conclusions @Torch

I am not saying that the Gaza data is 100% correct, I am saying that there is insufficient evidence to invalidate the Gaza health ministry's data.

 

[DarkNoon]

there is insufficient evidence to invalidate the Gaza health ministry's data.

It's called not trusting a terrorist or terror organization. That's sufficient enough not to belive a single word they say. Period.

 

[DarkNoon]

It's called not trusting a terrorist or terror organization. That's sufficient enough not to belive a single word they say. Period.

I'm not saying we can trust Israel's figures on Gaza death toll either. Frankly will likly never know truly how many have died. As one side is a terror organization who cannot be trusted about anything
& the other side has PR to gain to fudge the numbers less then what they are.

So will likly never know. But we sure as hell should not take anything a terrorist says in even slightly as truths. That is just common sense. You don't trust anything a terrorist organization says. Lol

 

[Torch]

I am not saying that the Gaza data is 100% correct, I am saying that there is insufficient evidence to invalidate the Gaza health ministry's data.

I thank you for pointing out the articles bias. However the data In summa is clearly fabricated. Wars do not run like an assembly line. There are massive ebbs and flows. There would be massive numbers of killed one day, and far less than next. It’s simply unbelievable to have consistent casualties.

IMO it’s utter bullshit.

Im unhappy the level of Hate the IDF is throwing at Gaza. I have said before the IDF is cranked up to 11. They need to be at a 7. Thats not my personal preference. If I was in charge of Israel, I would’ve given the Palestinians 24 hours to turn over the living or dead bodies of every Hamas member and submit to disarmament and de-radicalization. When they failed to meet those demands I would’ve destroyed Gazza in detail from one end to the other, INCH BY INCH, killing everyone that didn’t submit. But I’m not in charge (thankfully)

I’m saying that Israel needs to tone it down because they have very rapidly have gone from victim to criminal in most of the world’s minds.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

I’m saying that Israel needs to tone it down because they have very rapidly have gone from victim to criminal in most of the world’s minds.

Israel has always been the criminal in most of the world's minds.

 

[Torch]

Israel has always been the criminal in most of the world's minds.

You are correct sir!

Perhaps I should have said:

I’m saying that Israel needs to tone it down because they have very rapidly have gone from victim to Extra Super Criminal in most of the world’s minds.

But not mine. Israel is skirting the Letter of the laws of warfare by a razors edge whilst parsing and dare I say quibbling over exact wording of said laws. Im actually impressed. They are dancing on a pin whilst juggling. I think however Israel would be well served to back off, and perhaps use a crayon’s width between lawful and unlawful.

I already said what I would do to savages that put babies in ovens. The IDF response is tame by comparison.

 

[Friendly Engineer]

Follow up on this: Israel - Hamas War Reports | 3/1 - 3/31 2024

I had a word with the statistician today and I realised that their data is flawed. Here's a graph from Reuters (using the Gaza health ministry data) showing deaths.
View attachment 5211
The area highlighted in green is the only set of data analysed by the newspaper. They argue that the lack of 'randomness' in the data in green means the numbers are invented, made up, false.
However, you can clearly see before the green area that the data looks more random.

This invalidates their analysis because they have cherry picked a small time window and drawn conclusions from that data. For an accurate representation they should've looked at a larger range of dates. The only reason I can think of why they didn't is because they had their conclusion in mind before they analysed the data, i.e. their bias played a big role in curating their data!

This is an American-Jewish newspaper and they have clearly showed their bias in the selection of data. I wouldn't trust their conclusions @Torch

A follow up from the statistician I know:
"You can make statistics say anything", something to bear in mind. Data can be manipulated and twisted into any form you like.

 

[intel-bank]

Biden is trying to walk the razors edge, hoping to get support from both sides. He will most likely get neither.

Biden needs to take a deep breath and tell the public.
"Shit guys. I really don't have the first ******* clue what in supposed to do here! I don't know how to please the public here, this is a complex situation that has more context than any 1 person can process. I'm doing my best"

I would be a lot less likely to criticize a politician who is straight up honest and says that they just don't know, and nobody else really does either. Everyone has their $0.02 but it's a situation that I prefer to just lump into "dumb people. Millenia of war because religion prevents them from breaking the cycle"

I honestly simply cannot respect this. I've said before, I believe in the modern day despite some social ideas I disagree with, Modern Christianity is the only Abrahamic religion I support.

Judaism and Islam are stuck in their ideologies and cannot adapt. Their religions do not give permission to adapt. It is a big no-no to adapt. I do not dislike Jews or Muslims but I believe their religions perpetuate violence and war.

That's all I can say. How do I form an option when I cannot comprehend why people would just like, kill people, for God? Like, I was always told he was loving and didn't want people to die. But then Judaism and Islam says he's hateful and followers should be too.

 

[intel-bank]

A follow up from the statistician I know:
"You can make statistics say anything", something to bear in mind. Data can be manipulated and twisted into any form you like.

This is why despite having a fairly unique opinion on this war, I do try to keep facts in line. I did break down the math and statements from the IDF that suggests they believe 24k civillians and 12k terrorists have died, in line with the GHM and with most institutions including the department of state, believe the GHM numbers to be accurate. There is nobody that can seem to come up with a different number.

 

[Irag8er]

Biden needs to take a deep breath and tell the public.
"Shit guys. I really don't have the first ******* clue what in supposed to do here! I don't know how to please the public here, this is a complex situation that has more context than any 1 person can process. I'm doing my best"

I would be a lot less likely to criticize a politician who is straight up honest and says that they just don't know, and nobody else really does either. Everyone has their $0.02 but it's a situation that I prefer to just lump into "dumb people. Millenia of war because religion prevents them from breaking the cycle"

Well said.

 

[DarkNoon]

Al Jazeera called them "terrorists"?

No when I copy the translation I delete the words "resistant fighters" then I replace it with "terrorists".

Same for when they say "occupation forces" I replace that with "Israelis"

I'm not going to promote their terrorist ideology. But that is the only changes I make to Arabic translations.

 

[GBS61]

Israel has always been the criminal in most of the world's minds.

We must differentiate between the government and the people, I love the Jewish people who have contributed a lot to the advancement of humanity, on the other hand the current government, yerk, they are extremists just like Hamas!

 

[GBS61]

No when I copy the translation I delete the words "resistant fighters" then I replace it with "terrorists".

Same for when they say "occupation forces" I replace that with "Israelis"

I'm not going to promote their terrorist ideology. But that is the only changes I make to Arabic translations.

I disagree with this way of doing things, it does not represent what the media wants to say.
We already know your opinion!

 

[DarkNoon]

I disagree with this way of doing things, it does not represent what the media wants to say.
We already know your opinion!

Sorry I utterly refuse to promote terrorists ideology. My posts and can do what I want with them.

The meaning of sources is not lost or misconstrued when whiting out their terrorist phrases.

 

[GBS61]

Sorry I utterly refuse to promote terrorists ideology. My posts and can do what I want with them.

The meaning of sources is not lost or misconstrued when whiting out their terrorist phrases.

This is not the case for promoting an idea, this is a translation of an media of information

 

[DarkNoon]

This is not the case for promoting an idea, this is a translation of an media of information

Well I am not going to use their loaded propaganda words like "occupation forces" or "resistant fighters".

Because IDF is called & known as Israeli forces. They are not resistance fighters, they are internationally recognized as terrorists.

 

[DEFCON Warning System]

Senate Dem says blocking weapons shipments ‘on the table’ if Israel invades Rafah​

Congressional action to block U.S. arms sales to Israel is “certainly something that’s on the table” if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launches a large-scale invasion of Rafah, a top senator said Tuesday.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/rafah-gaza-israel-biden-netanyahu-weapons-00146586

 

[intel-bank]

Senate Dem says blocking weapons shipments ‘on the table’ if Israel invades Rafah​

Congressional action to block U.S. arms sales to Israel is “certainly something that’s on the table” if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launches a large-scale invasion of Rafah, a top senator said Tuesday.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/rafah-gaza-israel-biden-netanyahu-weapons-00146586

Oh no.

I don't live in Israel. I don't know why anyone would change their vote over this. This whole thing is absurd to me. Israel has the weapons to finish this war, invade Lebanon, eliminate Iran's nuclear facilities and then bomb Syria for the luls and still be a powerful force. I don't see how this is some particularly big deal. They don't need our money. And I've stated my feelings about millenia long religious war several times here.

You know what country DOES need out money? The one that has been invaded by a country that has been in numerous wars of attrition and isn't even in a wartime economy yet and can double their deficit spending and take 25 years to reach the debt to gdp ratios that western countries have.