January 2020 China Coronavirus

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willrod1989

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Two more cases of the coronavirus infection were confirmed by the Ministry of Health (MOH) on Thursday (Feb 6), with one who did not travel to China recently and does not seem to be linked to previous cases.

The other case also has no recent travel history to China and is linked to a conference at the Grand Hyatt Singapore hotel last month.

It still remains to be seen if there is sustained human-to-human transmission in Singapore. So far, from what I'm seeing, the three most worrisome hot spots outside of Mainland China are Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan. Germany seems to be getting things under control. The next few days are critical to see how this takes off.
 

krzepice1976

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
It still remains to be seen if there is sustained human-to-human transmission in Singapore. So far, from what I'm seeing, the three most worrisome hot spots outside of Mainland China are Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan. Germany seems to be getting things under control. The next few days are critical to see how this takes off.
Probably the most important will be Singapore. In case of Japan large numger of infection will lead to increas number of deaths( large number person with age over 60)
 

krzepice1976

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Singapore has raised its coronavirus alert level to orange - a level reached during the 2003 SARS outbreak and the 2009 H1N1 influenza which indicates the virus is severe and passes easily between persons.

Singapore has reported 33 cases of patients infected with the new coronavirus

Turkey has temporarily stopped imports of livestock and animal fats from China, Health Minister Fahrettin Koca said.
Another case of coronavirus has been reported in Malaysia, bringing the total number of patients infected to 15, according to the Ministry of Health.
Japan on Friday reported 41 new cases of a virus on a cruise ship that's been quarantined in Yokohama harbour.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
Couple of thoughts/questions.
The significant response globally to shut down travel from China and effort to repatriate visitors in China by almost every nation that is physically able to do so is significant to me.
Indicates that the infectious nature of this is real and probably understated.
The mortality rate is still unknown and it will probably vary a great deal from nation to nation depending on their abilities to contain and treat infections as they arise. Western nations and Russia will probably be successful in this but Asia, Mid East and Africa will not be so successful.
Iran’s still receives reg flights from China and there are “rumors” of some infections there.

Correct me if I’m wrong here this virus will behave like the flu and potentially be seasonally reoccurring popping up anywhere.
The Spanish flu had a 18month duration worldwide.
A year of industrial output, lost wages and death will take a massive toll on China and everyone who does business with them.
No replacement parts, no semiconductors, sovereign foreign loans called in by China to survive.
This possibly won’t be snuffed out with the “end of winter” in northern hemisphere.
Agree with Willowrod for the US the greatest threat will be economic.
Supply chains to many of the major automakers in US and Asia are already cutoff.
The economic implications are as unknown as the medical.

Will this push China to a drastic foreign policy response to save face / save the CCP?
CCP cannot be seen, I think in their eyes, as taking help from the west and having to be rescued by America. Their whole narrative to their people had been we will no be owned and subservient to western imperialism ever again, this is our century!

Everything affects everything eventually.
 

willrod1989

Well-known member
Couple of thoughts/questions.
The significant response globally to shut down travel from China and effort to repatriate visitors in China by almost every nation that is physically able to do so is significant to me.
Indicates that the infectious nature of this is real and probably understated.
The mortality rate is still unknown and it will probably vary a great deal from nation to nation depending on their abilities to contain and treat infections as they arise. Western nations and Russia will probably be successful in this but Asia, Mid East and Africa will not be so successful.
Iran’s still receives reg flights from China and there are “rumors” of some infections there.

Correct me if I’m wrong here this virus will behave like the flu and potentially be seasonally reoccurring popping up anywhere.
The Spanish flu had a 18month duration worldwide.
A year of industrial output, lost wages and death will take a massive toll on China and everyone who does business with them.
No replacement parts, no semiconductors, sovereign foreign loans called in by China to survive.
This possibly won’t be snuffed out with the “end of winter” in northern hemisphere.
Agree with Willowrod for the US the greatest threat will be economic.
Supply chains to many of the major automakers in US and Asia are already cutoff.
The economic implications are as unknown as the medical.

Will this push China to a drastic foreign policy response to save face / save the CCP?
CCP cannot be seen, I think in their eyes, as taking help from the west and having to be rescued by America. Their whole narrative to their people had been we will no be owned and subservient to western imperialism ever again, this is our century!

Everything affects everything eventually.
Absolutely! The infectious nature of this virus, if we assume an R0 of 4 like SARS, is really mind boggling. The reason that SARS took so long to take off was because it started in a primarily rural area. This is different, because it started in a major metropolis.

There are just so many unknowns. But at this point, with most travel and trade cut off from China, the major issue will be preventing sustained human-to-human transmission in other parts of the world. I believe this will occur somewhat, just like SARS did. However, if we rigorously monitor this epidemic, we should be able to outright contain it, or slow it down enough to the point where vaccines take over.

I cannot overstate this, however. The economic impact will quickly eclipse the public health implications by the time this plays out. Be prepared for a major recession.
 

krzepice1976

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Coronavirus death toll on mainland China reaches 722, while the number of infections rises to 34,546.

Singapore has confirmed seven more cases of the coronavirus, taking the country's total number of recorded cases to 40.

Five of the new cases are linked to previously announced cases and include a taxi driver and a private hire car driver, the health ministry said.
Five British nationals including a child have been diagnosed with the coronavirus in France after staying in the same ski chalet as a person who had been in Singapore, French health officials said.
The health ministry of Japan said three new virus cases had been confirmed on the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Yokohama, raising the total number on the ship to 64.

The Malaysian health ministry confirmed a 16th case of coronavirus, a 67-year old female and Chinese national from Wuhan.

 

willrod1989

Well-known member
While we're still in the early parts of this epidemic, it appears so far that we have a chance for this to play out like SARS in 2003. I wouldn't be surprised if the British nationals in France were one or two generations removed from someone from Wuhan. It also appears that the incubation period for this virus has an average of around 5-6 days, which is consistent with SARS and MERS.

The public health alarm has been sounded, and there is a frantic scramble to trace contacts, especially in Singapore. We still have a window of opportunity to contain this outbreak, but that gets smaller the longer this continues. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus is to avoid anyone who is ill, cover your coughs, and wash your hands. Also, if you've been anywhere in East Asia, not just the PRC, keep an eye out for symptoms.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
While we're still in the early parts of this epidemic, it appears so far that we have a chance for this to play out like SARS in 2003. I wouldn't be surprised if the British nationals in France were one or two generations removed from someone from Wuhan. It also appears that the incubation period for this virus has an average of around 5-6 days, which is consistent with SARS and MERS.

The public health alarm has been sounded, and there is a frantic scramble to trace contacts, especially in Singapore. We still have a window of opportunity to contain this outbreak, but that gets smaller the longer this continues. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus is to avoid anyone who is ill, cover your coughs, and wash your hands. Also, if you've been anywhere in East Asia, not just the PRC, keep an eye out for symptoms.
Believe I read the British nationals in Switzerland were 2nd gen removed.
Watched a vid of British epidemiologist stating the we are 1-2 weeks away from seeing how bad the spread will be outside of China.
And up to 3 weeks post infection to relize the mortality of it.
What is your take on the supposed HIV strands located in the virus’s RNA? Three I believe
One of the posters was hinting this makes the virus able to infect and replicate in a variety of host cells and might mean it can cause more than just acute respiratory failure.
Not to mention the assertion the virus might have been modified with Crisper insertions.
Pretty serious claim and implications if proven true.
 

willrod1989

Well-known member
Believe I read the British nationals in Switzerland were 2nd gen removed.
Watched a vid of British epidemiologist stating the we are 1-2 weeks away from seeing how bad the spread will be outside of China.
And up to 3 weeks post infection to relize the mortality of it.
What is your take on the supposed HIV strands located in the virus’s RNA? Three I believe
One of the posters was hinting this makes the virus able to infect and replicate in a variety of host cells and might mean it can cause more than just acute respiratory failure.
Not to mention the assertion the virus might have been modified with Crisper insertions.
Pretty serious claim and implications if proven true.
Absolutely, and unfortunately, I can't really answer too well with regards to the supposed similarities with the genetic sequences in the novel coronavirus and HIV. I'm just not an expert in virology. However, in terms of epidemiology, we are definitely at the critical point right now to see where this takes off. Will this be mostly confined to China with sporadic cases showing up over the next couple of months? Or are we a few days away from seeing sustained human-to-human transmission take off? Unfortunately, that's something where we have to wait a few days to see what happens.

However, some encouraging signs, especially when you look at how SARS played out, appear to show that we still have a chance at containing this epidemic, but only if we continue to act aggressively. People across the region, especially in the hot zone in China, have pretty much distanced themselves and are taking greater precautions in terms of hygiene. If you look at this and compare it to, say, H1N1 influenza, some people wore masks and social distancing at first, especially in the Mexico City area. However, once it was determined not to be particularly lethal, people tended to let their guard down somewhat.

The crucial thing to watch out for is when we start seeing sustained human-to-human transmission occurring from people who acquired the infection outside of Mainland China. At that point, we will move from outright containment to simply attempting to slow the spread of the disease, at least until we get a vaccine. As for the mortality rate, at this point, I would actually be surprised if the rate started to increase. Usually at the beginning of an epidemic, the numbers tend to skew towards the severe, as the first cases to come to light are those who are ill enough to require hospitalization. This occurred with the H1N1 pandemic as well- the initial death rate was estimated to be as high as 5 percent at first, but that was only because it was being tracked by those who were ill enough to require hospitalization.

I honestly wouldn't pay attention to the numbers coming out of Hubei Province anyway. They are completely overwhelmed, are only able to run tests on those who are sick enough to make it into the hospital, and are more likely running a higher death rate due to shortages of medical staff and supplies. The numbers outside of Hubei Province are showing a more accurate picture, especially the international cases. While it's still too early to predict how this outbreak will turn out, if we don't start seeing major increases in cases outside of Hubei Province by next week, our window of opportunity will have increased quite a bit. I've definitely been working overtime trying to get a handle on this situation, believe me!
 
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