Poll: Is an invasion of Taiwan imminent?

Will China invade Taiwan in the next few weeks?

  • Yes

    Votes: 7 33.3%
  • No

    Votes: 12 57.1%
  • I don't know

    Votes: 2 9.5%

  • Total voters
    21

ralfy

Active member
It’s a pride thing with China. They’ve asserted themselves as a global power yet they have a counter Chinese population and government right in there face just off their coast
That doesn't make sense as China is a major trading partner of Taiwan, Taiwan is supplied arms by the U.S. which ironically doesn't recognize it as a country, and both the U.S. and China are major trading partners of each other.

Given that, the logical thing to do is to maintain the status quo, and let the U.S. fall by itself.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
That doesn't make sense as China is a major trading partner of Taiwan, Taiwan is supplied arms by the U.S. which ironically doesn't recognize it as a country, and both the U.S. and China are major trading partners of each other.

Given that, the logical thing to do is to maintain the status quo, and let the U.S. fall by itself.
Think about it this way. Conflict it about defending your nation, conquering for resources, fear, or pride.
You can fight it to repel, destroy, or subject. China path is assimilation. Asymmetric conflict to subvert and replace a adversary internally through external force applied and internal unrest and subversion.
They won’t directly attack Taiwan. They will keep applying pressure at all levels to wear Taiwan down and “correct the thinking of the Taiwanese people.
 
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DucknCover

Guest
The new chinese maritime law gives them every right to take Taiwan because they already consider it's theirs.
And if the US naviy is passing the Taiwan straight again it's probably war.
 

DarkNoon

Power Poster
The new chinese maritime law gives them every right to take Taiwan because they already consider it's theirs.
And if the US naviy is passing the Taiwan straight again it's probably war.
Please China couldn't even win a staring contest with us. They will throw a fit, condemn the action, shadow our ships, and repeat.

I can wright on a piece of paper anyone who walks on my yard will have their head on a stick. Can I enforce it? No.
 
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ralfy

Active member
Think about it this way. Conflict it about defending your nation, conquering for resources, fear, or pride.
You can fight it to repel, destroy, or subject. China path is assimilation. Asymmetric conflict to subvert and replace a adversary internally through external force applied and internal unrest and subversion.
They won’t directly attack Taiwan. They will keep applying pressure at all levels to wear Taiwan down and “correct the thinking of the Taiwanese people.

What has been taking place the past two decades is the opposite of assimilation. That's why during the same period the situation completely reversed, with most countries now having China as the major trading partner and not the U.S.

Meanwhilre, it was the U.S. that was employing all sorts of conflict for many decades, supporting coups, engaging in military intervention over oil and minerals, and even playing both sides of the field in the Middle East and Asia.

The reasons for both points are logical: China does not have an experienced military and is too busy employing soft power, which involves trade deals. It has been winning through the latter with Taiwan, and it has no reason to humiliate the latter further as Taiwan is not even recognized as a sovereign state by most countries, including, ironically, the U.S. itself. More important, China has now eclipsed not only Taiwan but even Japan and South Korea, and is the dominant force in the region. Even the U.S. realized that starting in the late 1990s.

Given that, there is no logic for China to apply pressure on Taiwan as it has more to gain by doing the opposite. OTOH, the U.S. must put pressure on Taiwan to use the latter in wearing China down, as it cannot defeat the latter economically. In fact, the U.S. must do the same for many countries in the region, as that's the only way it can continue its grand chessboard strategy of encircling Russia and China. Using their warmongering, liberal media also helps, especially when much of them is owned by the same rich which funds the military industrial complex.

That's why the U.S. has been engaged in perpetual warfare, keeps pushing for military expansionism, and prefer Biden over Trump, as the latter wanted peace deals, less military expansionism, and even making other countries pay for military help.
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
Please China couldn't even win a staring contest with us. They will throw a fit, condemn the action, shadow our ships, and repeat.

I can wright on a piece of paper anyone who walks on my yard will have their head on a stick. Can I enforce it? No.
Don't underestimate China. We're playing in their backyard where they don't have to do anything to project their power. We have to project our power over 7,000 miles, whether that's sailing through the Strait or defending Taiwan. They have a serious strategic advantage over us due to that distance.
 

ralfy

Active member
Don't underestimate China. We're playing in their backyard where they don't have to do anything to project their power. We have to project our power over 7,000 miles, whether that's sailing through the Strait or defending Taiwan. They have a serious strategic advantage over us due to that distance.

The U.S. has been playing worldwide for several decades, and needs to project power because that's the only thing that's keeping the dollar propped up. And that dollar is what's needed to keep the economy propped up, together with a very expensive military, which in turn has been used with foreign policies to coerce or influence other countries.

The reason why it relies heavily on the dollar to be used as a global reserve currency is that the U.S. has been experiencing low economic growth since 1961, trade deficits since 1971, and heavy borrowing and spending since 1981.

Its total debts have now reached around $70 trillion, and unfunded liabilities probably up to $200 trillion. A decade ago, it provided $16 trillion in mostly unaudited funds to bail out the rich and passed on the costs to the public.

Meanwhile, Brazil, Russia, India, China. and South Africa (BRICS) and forty other countries (under groups labeled as MINT, EAGLE, Next Eleven, and more) have been growing stronger each time. China alone experienced incredible growth since the late 1980s, with an ave. growth rate of around 6 pct per annum. Even Cuba, which barely has a private sector, saw its economy quadruple in size in only two decades, for an ave. growth rate of around 10 pct, that's with a trade embargo imposed by the U.S.

Interestingly enough, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, together with Asian tiger and even tiger cubs, experienced the same because they didn't follow U.S. neoliberalism and military expansionism.

The implication then, is that the U.S. has been underestimating not only China but many other countries for some time, but given the wrong analysis. It's possible that they have to adjust that in order to justify high military costs, even though these countries have been succeeding for economic reasons.
 

Erecon

Member
Simple answer : No

Couple reasons
China has no experiance in amphibios operations on that scale, just one stage mistake could cause its failure.
Going to war is a costly buisness, and you need to gain from it.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
Simple answer : No

Couple reasons
China has no experiance in amphibios operations on that scale, just one stage mistake could cause its failure.
Going to war is a costly buisness, and you need to gain from it.
If the reason to invade Taiwan was economic then China would have to destroy so much of Taiwan’s infrastructure and economy to achieve it it nullifies the reason to invade.
Subversion and eventual assimilation yes.
Now if it’s to punish a brakeaway population for whatever reason then yes they would wage war on this scale.
will they, I don’t know.
 

DarkNoon

Power Poster
China will bomb it and then invade it.
so simple
So China wants to create a multi trillion dollar problem for itself? If China flattens Tawian and takes it over, the rebuild & population control efforts would likly cost more than 300 American Afghanistan wars ontop of every other war America ever fought kinda money where talking about for CCP to do such a feat.

You really think CCP wants to spend that much money? AND that is just the control/rebuild efforts. Where not even talking about the geopolitical economic backlash CCP will be effected by for doing so.
 
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DucknCover

Guest
the rebuild & population control efforts would likly cost more than 300 American Afghanistan wars ontop of every other war America ever fought kinda money where talking about for CCP to do such a feat.
I don't think they will rebuild it the way it was. It would just be a military outpost or an aircraft carrier for China.
The surviving population, probably lower than 10 million will be detained in re-education camps outside Taiwan.
Similar to the Uyghurs, who are 12 million people and "live" mostly in Xinjiang.
 

ralfy

Active member
Simple answer : No

Couple reasons
China has no experiance in amphibios operations on that scale, just one stage mistake could cause its failure.
Going to war is a costly buisness, and you need to gain from it.
In addition, it is gaining from trade with both Taiwan and the U.S., and vice versa.
 

ralfy

Active member
If the reason to invade Taiwan was economic then China would have to destroy so much of Taiwan’s infrastructure and economy to achieve it it nullifies the reason to invade.
Subversion and eventual assimilation yes.
Now if it’s to punish a brakeaway population for whatever reason then yes they would wage war on this scale.
will they, I don’t know.
Taiwan has no natural resources to exploit. Meanwhile, China is gaining from trade with both Taiwan and the U.S.

Given that, there's no reason for China to invade Taiwan, but there's good reason for the U.S. to want that to take place.
 
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