Poll: Is an invasion of Taiwan imminent?

Will China invade Taiwan in the next few weeks?

  • Yes

    Votes: 7 33.3%
  • No

    Votes: 12 57.1%
  • I don't know

    Votes: 2 9.5%

  • Total voters
    21

ralfy

Active member
Push the US navy out of the equation and block-aid Taiwan is least destructive military means of seizing Taiwan.
Lot of variables and time involved for that to work.
Or just let the status quo continue, given high growth rates for both China and Taiwan.

OTOH, it's the U.S. that's been on the losing end, and it needs to justify very high military costs.
 

ralfy

Active member
China will bomb it and then invade it.
so simple
There's no point in doing that as Chinese economic growth appears to remain high, at around 6 pct, and that of Taiwan surging recently (around 2 pct on average for several years, but this year 6 pct, too).
 

ralfy

Active member
So China wants to create a multi trillion dollar problem for itself? If China flattens Tawian and takes it over, the rebuild & population control efforts would likly cost more than 300 American Afghanistan wars ontop of every other war America ever fought kinda money where talking about for CCP to do such a feat.

You really think CCP wants to spend that much money? AND that is just the control/rebuild efforts. Where not even talking about the geopolitical economic backlash CCP will be effected by for doing so.
I don't understand what it needs to take over, as China's industrial base is extensive, and together with port facilities and now the financial industry shows that it no longer needs Taiwan or even Hong Kong for trade. Meanwhile, both depend on China, together with many countries in the region.

Also, why would it risk its position as economic top dog? Several decades ago, most countries had the U.S. as the major trading partner and China almost non-existent. Now, it's the other way round.

Meanwhile, the U.S. had to spend extensively for its military to bully dozens of countries. There is no way it can justify those costs to its people except through perpetual conflict. That's why its media have been warmongering the past two decades.

The implication, then, is that if there's any country that wants to see Taiwan invaded, it's probably not China but the U.S.
 
D

DucknCover

Guest
China want's to reunify with Taiwan peacefully,
but it seems that it doesn't work with diplomacy because the U.S. isn't allowing it.
So they try to detere the U.S. and any other country around from intervening which also doesn't work.
Meanwhile the U.S. is bolstering up the defense of Taiwan which forces China to invade quickly before Taiwan becomes too costly to conquer.
China is determined and willing to take extreme steps to achieve its goal.
Taiwan is for China like Crimea is for Russia a jewel of inestimable value.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
China want's to reunify with Taiwan peacefully,
but it seems that it doesn't work with diplomacy because the U.S. isn't allowing it.
So they try to detere the U.S. and any other country around from intervening which also doesn't work.
Meanwhile the U.S. is bolstering up the defense of Taiwan which forces China to invade quickly before Taiwan becomes too costly to conquer.
China is determined and willing to take extreme steps to achieve its goal.
Taiwan is for China like Crimea is for Russia a jewel of inestimable value.
So what if it’s a jewel of inestimable value. The Taiwanese fled from China to Taiwan to escape Mao and the communist. Is it if no worth that they don’t want to be part of mainland China?
 
D

DucknCover

Guest
I believe that I posted the Chinese view on this issue.
Neither Crimea nor Taiwan were asked for their opinion.
The strong subjugate the weak and use them for their own benefit, just as China and the USA do with others.:(
 

RiffRaff

Deputy Director
Staff member
Be careful about Western culture bias when analyzing this issue. The Chinese think differently than we do. That's not a racist comment; it's just a cultural difference. Part of that difference is their ability to play the long game in order to achieve a goal a century from now. Americans can't focus on anything past the next election. They also look at honor differently than we do, and "reclaiming" Taiwan could be as much a matter of saving face and national pride than it is about natural resources or anything tangible. It would also be a massive strategic and economic blow to the United States if they were to successfully take Taiwan, which is just as important to the Chinese as anything else.

Plus, they now have a massive economic crisis looming with the Evergrande collapse. Nothing better to distract the population and stimulate the economy than a new war. THAT is one thing the American government knows just as well as the Chinese government.
 

ralfy

Active member
China want's to reunify with Taiwan peacefully,
but it seems that it doesn't work with diplomacy because the U.S. isn't allowing it.
So they try to detere the U.S. and any other country around from intervening which also doesn't work.
Meanwhile the U.S. is bolstering up the defense of Taiwan which forces China to invade quickly before Taiwan becomes too costly to conquer.
China is determined and willing to take extreme steps to achieve its goal.
Taiwan is for China like Crimea is for Russia a jewel of inestimable value.
Why would China want to unify with an island that has no resources?

And why would the U.S. disallow that when it doesn't even recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state?
 

ralfy

Active member
So what if it’s a jewel of inestimable value. The Taiwanese fled from China to Taiwan to escape Mao and the communist. Is it if no worth that they don’t want to be part of mainland China?
What jewel? It has no resources or even extensive port facilities. China has no need even for the latter because it has HK and Shanghai. It doesn't even need TW manufacturing facilities because it developed its own extensively the past two decades.

Meanwhile, the U.S. and most countries don't even recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state. At the same time, Taiwan is heavily dependent on China for trade.

Finally, here's the punch line: the aggressive actions taken in the SCS from China involve claims that were made by Taiwan decades ago, and that the latter still retain today.
 

ralfy

Active member
Be careful about Western culture bias when analyzing this issue. The Chinese think differently than we do. That's not a racist comment; it's just a cultural difference. Part of that difference is their ability to play the long game in order to achieve a goal a century from now. Americans can't focus on anything past the next election. They also look at honor differently than we do, and "reclaiming" Taiwan could be as much a matter of saving face and national pride than it is about natural resources or anything tangible. It would also be a massive strategic and economic blow to the United States if they were to successfully take Taiwan, which is just as important to the Chinese as anything else.

Plus, they now have a massive economic crisis looming with the Evergrande collapse. Nothing better to distract the population and stimulate the economy than a new war. THAT is one thing the American government knows just as well as the Chinese government.

I think China has more to gain from trade than from reclaiming, and that appears to be what they've been doing the past two decades. That's why during the same period they completely reversed the situation, with them and not the U.S. becoming the major trading partner of most countries, without using military assets.

About that economic crisis, it involves something like $14 billion in stimulus funds, and still far away from the $16 trillion the U.S. needed to bail out its rich which controls something like 86 pct of U.S. wealth. That also involves an authoritarian gov't that is able to rein in even its billionaires. In contrast, for the U.S., it's Wall Street that calls the shots, which is why the country needs war not to distract people or even stimulate an economy that's essentially dependent on continous borrowing and spending but even to keep the dollar propped up.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
There's no point in doing that as Chinese economic growth appears to remain high, at around 6 pct, and that of Taiwan surging recently (around 2 pct on average for several years, but this year 6 pct, too).
Incorrect only 2% this year.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
I think China has more to gain from trade than from reclaiming, and that appears to be what they've been doing the past two decades. That's why during the same period they completely reversed the situation, with them and not the U.S. becoming the major trading partner of most countries, without using military assets.

About that economic crisis, it involves something like $14 billion in stimulus funds, and still far away from the $16 trillion the U.S. needed to bail out its rich which controls something like 86 pct of U.S. wealth. That also involves an authoritarian gov't that is able to rein in even its billionaires. In contrast, for the U.S., it's Wall Street that calls the shots, which is why the country needs war not to distract people or even stimulate an economy that's essentially dependent on continous borrowing and spending but even to keep the dollar propped up.
Or celestial kingdom bias
 

Obreid

Power Poster
What jewel? It has no resources or even extensive port facilities. China has no need even for the latter because it has HK and Shanghai. It doesn't even need TW manufacturing facilities because it developed its own extensively the past two decades.

Meanwhile, the U.S. and most countries don't even recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state. At the same time, Taiwan is heavily dependent on China for trade.

Finally, here's the punch line: the aggressive actions taken in the SCS from China involve claims that were made by Taiwan decades ago, and that the latter still retain today.
When China reigns in their maritime fishing fleets encroaching into smaller nations economic zones all across the pacific and southern Atlantic we’ll take your claims seriously.
Good grief fishing the Galapagos world maritime preserve. There like a hoard of locust, a blight on the oceans.
Maybe the pacific coast SA nations should respond like the Argentina’s navy
 

Obreid

Power Poster
Meanwhile, the U.S. and most countries don't even recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state
Maybe, maybe we just are trying to coddle China till they give up the CCP obsession.China is fairly nascent regarding modern international affairs and relations. Being the hermit kingdom and not opening their country till the seventies. That and their ego is still bruised that a Chinese population still lives outside the control of Beijing.

Does China plan on granting Tibet their freedom anytime soon? What was that the 50’s when China occupied Tibet.
Make you points but don’t be a blind apologist for China it’s a tell.
 

ralfy

Active member
When China reigns in their maritime fishing fleets encroaching into smaller nations economic zones all across the pacific and southern Atlantic we’ll take your claims seriously.
Good grief fishing the Galapagos world maritime preserve. There like a hoard of locust, a blight on the oceans.
Maybe the pacific coast SA nations should respond like the Argentina’s navy
You mean China, Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Malaysia enroaching on each others' zones, and for many years. And one expect a reaction from a U.S. that didn't even ratify the UNCLOS?
 
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ralfy

Active member
Maybe, maybe we just are trying to coddle China till they give up the CCP obsession.China is fairly nascent regarding modern international affairs and relations. Being the hermit kingdom and not opening their country till the seventies. That and their ego is still bruised that a Chinese population still lives outside the control of Beijing.

Does China plan on granting Tibet their freedom anytime soon? What was that the 50’s when China occupied Tibet.
Make you points but don’t be a blind apologist for China it’s a tell.

I've been making my points from the start! To recap:

1. Taiwan has no resources. China needs no additional infrastructure, ports, etc., as those are readily available at its southern areas.

2. Taiwan's main trading partner is China.

3. The main trading partner of the U.S. is China (outside the EU, which isn't a country).

4. The main trading partner of China is the U.S.

5. The U.S. sells arms to Taiwan and earns from that, but it doesn't recognize Taiwan as a major trading partner.

6. The main trading partner of many countries in the region is China.

7. The main trading partner of most countries in the world is China. It was the U.S. around two decades ago.

8. China literally has an non-experienced military. The last battle it had except for that 1988 skirmish with Vietnam was in 1979. I don't even think their most senior military commanders have combat experience.

An additional point so you brought up China claiming EEZs of smaller countries:

9. The country that first made the nine-dash claim was not China but Taiwan. China just copied Taiwan.

So, given all of these points, and probably even more, why would China even consider attacking Taiwan? It gains nothing from doing so and worse will suffer economically, and everything by just maintaining the status quo, which is trade.

With that, one should ask a more important question: who would want Taiwan to be attacked, and why?
 
D

DucknCover

Guest
1.
Wrong, Taiwan has a few oil and natural gas wells.
Taiwan has rich coal deposits buried underneath the mountains of northern Taiwan. The country has an estimated coal reserve of about 180 million tons.The country has four main gold-bearing deposits with an estimated 100 tons of the precious metal. has abundant marble resources with the government aiming to make it more competitive in the international market. It is estimated that Taiwan has 30 billion metric tons of marble deposits, one of the largest in the world.
Taiwan is rich of Asbestos but mining of asbestos in Taiwan ended in 1987 and the government has put in place policies to affect the total ban on its use in the country.
Taiwan is one of the major exporters of cement, with its market including Malaysia, Ghana, Indonesia, and Australia. As of 2013, the country has a capacity to produces 26 million tons of cement per year.Although copper is found in large quantities across Taiwan, the mines have since been closed down.


2. China is the biggest single trading partner with about $103 billion but the other trading partners of the world combined are about $210 billion.

3. U.S. is importing the most from China but it exporting nothing to China , it's import volume from China is at $270 bilion.
But the U.S. imports from many other countries for example Mexico, Canada, Japan, Germany make up a volume of $550 bilion.
Taiwan exports $40 billion to the U.S.

4. Again USA is the biggest single trading partner of China but all the other 14 trading patners make up over 3 times more - $1300 billion.

5. It's not true.

6. Easily also true.

7. Stop living in the past.

8. China trains with Russia and has combat experience in skirmishes with India. 2020-2021
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020–2021_China–India_skirmishes

9. China copies everything with good prospects of success.

So, given all of these points, and probably even more, why would China even consider attacking Taiwan? It gains nothing from doing so and worse will suffer economically, and everything by just maintaining the status quo, which is trade.
What you have learned today: China is not economically dependent on the USA, but the USA isn't also realy dependent on Chinese exports.
None of them made this big mistake.

What would China gain?

After successful battles against the U.S. navy, China gains full control of the Western Pacific and will slowly replace the USA as the hegemonial superpower.

China gains more power in the first place and on the long run World Domination.
 
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