False flag? ( just the first thing that comes to my mind )
A false flag is definitely a possibility that can’t be ignored. If this was staged by Russian intelligence or loyalists around Putin, it could serve multiple purposes:
1.
Justification for Escalation: A false flag assassination attempt gives Putin the perfect pretext to escalate, potentially to nuclear options even though unlikly could open the nuclear option up though again unlikly, under the guise of “self-defense.” He’s made it clear that any attempt on his life would cross a red line, and this event could provide the rationale to retaliate with overwhelming force either against Ukraine or unlikly but possible NATO.
2.
Consolidation of Power: If this was orchestrated by factions loyal to Putin, it could be a move to consolidate his grip on power by rooting out internal dissent. An attempted assassination real or fabricated would justify mass purges within the Kremlin, giving Putin the authority to eliminate rivals or disloyal figures under the guise of “national security.”
3.
Manipulating Public Opinion: A false flag could rally domestic support around Putin at a time when his approval may be waning, particularly after years of stagnation in Ukraine and mounting economic hardship. Framing himself as a victim of a Western-backed assassination attempt could reignite nationalist fervor and justify extraordinary measures.
However, internal power struggle remains just as likely, if not more so. The timing makes sense since Russia’s position has stabilized significantly since Trump resumed office, with aid to Ukraine largely cut off, giving Russia room to maneuver and make slow but steady advances. If factions within the Kremlin feel that Putin is not taking advantage of this momentum or they disagree with his strategy (especially if they view him as too cautious), an internal coup or power move wouldn’t be out of the question.
Putin has always walked a tightrope between hardliners, oligarchs, and military elites. If one of those factions believes they could do a better job advancing Russian interests especially with Trump signaling a shift in U.S. policy this might be their moment to strike.
If this is an internal coup attempt, and it fails, Putin’s response will be brutal. Expect purges, executions, and possibly mass arrests across the Kremlin and military leadership.