Putin Is Dangerous Because the Ukraine War Is Personal

I don't disagree with your sentiment, but if Putin's use of a nuke is inevitable at some point, why isn't the world doing more (collectively) to try and push this situation back from the brink? I understand why Zelensky and Putin won't speak directly, but shouldn't other world leaders start talking more about peace rather than just announcing more arms shipments to UA? Of course the hardest part of any peace agreement is that Putin won nothing and shouldn't be allowed to win anything substantial as that would set a horrible precedent (you can lose but win anyway by threatening with nukes). But isn't there a way off this train somehow?


The scariest thing is Putin seems to have zero regard for the lives of any of his countrymen and women. Even during the USSR days, that didn't seem to be the case - there was some semblance of humanity or at least a will to protect your countrymen. P doesn't seem to care if everyone dies.
 

Irag8er

Moderator
I also did not imply it would be better, just said it would severely diminish the nuclear capabilities of an already unstable political apparatus. You can't really expect a united opposition regime to come into power after Putin, ready to use nukes. Given the amount of infighting among the current regime I could only see the next dictator of Russia trying to rebuild the conventional army to bolster their own image.
Or would it. I'm sure there are strong factions that would be involved who would just love to have access to just one of the nukes.
 
I don't disagree with your sentiment, but if Putin's use of a nuke is inevitable at some point, why isn't the world doing more (collectively) to try and push this situation back from the brink? I understand why Zelensky and Putin won't speak directly, but shouldn't other world leaders start talking more about peace rather than just announcing more arms shipments to UA? Of course the hardest part of any peace agreement is that Putin won nothing and shouldn't be allowed to win anything substantial as that would set a horrible precedent (you can lose but win anyway by threatening with nukes). But isn't there a way off this train somehow?


The scariest thing is Putin seems to have zero regard for the lives of any of his countrymen and women. Even during the USSR days, that didn't seem to be the case - there was some semblance of humanity or at least a will to protect your countrymen. P doesn't seem to care if everyone dies.
the peace terms are wholly dictated by Russia right now as they still control most of the territories they claimed to annex. Imo that is why politicians and defense officials will not try to push peace talks until the tables are at least evened out a bit. Putin knows this and it is the reason RT propagandists used Elon's poll so much and supported it.
 
Many commentators have been trying to guess Russia’s next move in Ukraine, especially concern the possible use of nuclear weapons. Will Russia detonate one or won’t they?

The problem with most of these is that they have been looking at Putin as a rational, reasonable man.

He’s not.

This doesn’t mean he’s mad or insane or any other cartoon variety the image conjures up.

It means that Putin is not operating the war from the cold, dispassionate position it takes to properly prosecute a war.

The war in Ukraine is personal to him. And that is what makes Putin a very dangerous man.

From the onset, Vladimir Putin has not operated in the manner expected by any rational standard. Russia has constantly defied expectations because Russia has not done what any sane military would have. From the invasion to the operation to throwing chaff into the fire (untrained and/or unprepared conscripts), Russia is behaving as if it is defending St. Petersburg from the advancing Third Reich rather than as the invader trying to capture new territory.

Putin himself has responded as a cornered animal rather than a leader, snarling and swiping in a desperate attempt to keep NATO out of Ukraine. Cue the obligatory nuclear threat that is made every couple of days from either him or his subordinates.

More telling, though, is Putin’s hands-on approach to the war. Reports are that he is micromanaging. This is never a good thing. Generally, a leader gives the army its objectives and then lets the army do its thing. But when politicians start to get involved, things go bad. And the more they get involved, the worse it gets. Just look at the Korean and Vietnam wars and see what results from when politicians butt in.

But this micromanaging also means that the war is a reflection on him. These are his victories as well as his failures.

We also have to look at the build-up to this war.

Putin has been an adversary to the West and NATO for a long time. He sees Western encroachment as a threat. That NATO plans to swallow up Russia and reduce it to a second-rate nation under the thumb of the United States. Some of this comes from his upbringing. And some of this comes from Russian DNA which is encoded to fear invasion. (Getting invaded multiple times will do that to a country.)

This is what made Putin who he is and is what is driving his actions.

So Putin sees the West not only coming for his beloved country and empire, but for himself.

Couple this with the fact that Putin’s legacy is on the line here. This is his war. No one in his cabinet came to him one day and said, “Let’s capture Ukraine.” This was his idea. This is his baby. He has put everything into it. He has wrapped his country’s economy into it, thousands of lives, and drafted hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens on the mantle of his war. He had better produce or it has been a waste. And then what will happen to him?

History, as they say, is written by the winners.

All this combines to make Vladimir Putin a very dangerous man. Because his stake in this war is personal. There is only one balance sheet that he is consulting: his. And he needs to come out ahead.

So make no mistake about it. There is no cost so high that Putin will not pay. No number of lives that can’t be sacrificed. No risk too great. Because the alternative is too bleak for him to contemplate.

Fortunately, Putin not insane. Otherwise he would have used a nuke right from the outset. He can still weigh the cost and benefit of actions.

He still holds out hope that he can pull a victory out of this. That Ukraine can be ground out through attrition. After all, Russia has more people than Ukraine.

But there is a line in the sand. There is a point where Putin will take the next step. He’s already said it.

“Why would we want a world without Russia?”

Of course, no one is looking to eliminate Russia. But that isn’t how Vladimir Putin sees it.

He will do what it takes to protect himself.

It’s not a question of if he will or will not use a nuclear weapon in the war in Ukraine. He will.

The question is: What will be the cause for him to use it?

The United States has been publicly ambiguous as to what it would do in response to a nuclear strike by Russia. However, some U.S. officials have stated that President Biden favours a non-nuclear response.

So now Russia knows the cost. Now Putin knows exactly where the line is.
Putin is trying to micromanage the war,instead of giving his General Staff an outline and letting them do their jobs. He’s on his third Commander overseeing Ukraine.

Vladimir Vladimirovich is now paying the price for his mistakes. Thing is,he’s throwing everyone else under the bus.

At this point, I’m saying a tactical nuclear weapon will probably be detonated over the Black Sea,as a demonstration. Not sure about when,but just might happen.

Question is,if he does that,how will NATO respond?
 
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