Is this a rumor or is this still up for debate?
-
Guests may view all public nodes. However, you must be registered to post.
RUMINT: Possible Nuclear Incident in the Russian Federation
- Thread starter jjjppp11
- Start date
The treaties are useless pieces of paper at this point as they usually are.
PeacePlease said:
No one knows what happened, so yes it still is open to speculation.
Russia doesn't exactly have a positive history when it comes to reporting these things, so it may be a while if ever we find out the source.
Clearly it was an accidental release rather than something nefarious. Beyond that...?
he USAF WC-135C Constant Phoenix might be investigating a spike in radioactive levels in Norway. Someone speculates the release of this radionuclide could be the effect of a Russian nuclear test.
On Feb. 17, 2017, U.S. Air Force WC-135C Constant Phoenix Nuclear explosion “sniffer,” serial number 62-3582, using radio callsign “Cobra 55” deployed to RAF Mildenhall, UK.
As we have already reported the WC-135 is a derivative of the Boeing C-135 transport and support plane. Two of these aircraft are in service today out of the ten examples operated since 1963. The aircraft are flown by flight crews from the 45th Reconnaissance Squadron from Offutt Air Force Base while mission crews are staffed by Detachment 1 from the Air Force Technical Applications Center.
Iodine-131 (131I), a radionuclide of anthropogenic origin, has recently been detected in tiny amounts in the ground-level atmosphere in Europe. The preliminary report states it was first found during week 2 of January 2017 in northern Norway. Iodine-131 was also detected in Finland, Poland, Czech Republic, Germany, France and Spain, until the end of January.
However, no one seems to know the reason behind the released Iodine-131. Along with nuclear power plants, the isotope is also widely used in medicine and its presence in the air could be the effect of several different incidents.
Or, as someone speculates, it could have been the side effect of a test of a new nuclear warhead in Russia: an unlikely (considered the ability to detect nuke tests through satellites and seismic detectors) violation of Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
https://theaviationist.com/?p=41250
On Feb. 17, 2017, U.S. Air Force WC-135C Constant Phoenix Nuclear explosion “sniffer,” serial number 62-3582, using radio callsign “Cobra 55” deployed to RAF Mildenhall, UK.
As we have already reported the WC-135 is a derivative of the Boeing C-135 transport and support plane. Two of these aircraft are in service today out of the ten examples operated since 1963. The aircraft are flown by flight crews from the 45th Reconnaissance Squadron from Offutt Air Force Base while mission crews are staffed by Detachment 1 from the Air Force Technical Applications Center.
Iodine-131 (131I), a radionuclide of anthropogenic origin, has recently been detected in tiny amounts in the ground-level atmosphere in Europe. The preliminary report states it was first found during week 2 of January 2017 in northern Norway. Iodine-131 was also detected in Finland, Poland, Czech Republic, Germany, France and Spain, until the end of January.
However, no one seems to know the reason behind the released Iodine-131. Along with nuclear power plants, the isotope is also widely used in medicine and its presence in the air could be the effect of several different incidents.
Or, as someone speculates, it could have been the side effect of a test of a new nuclear warhead in Russia: an unlikely (considered the ability to detect nuke tests through satellites and seismic detectors) violation of Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
https://theaviationist.com/?p=41250
It makes for good headlines though. Watch this be blown (ha ha) out of proportion.
It's already blown out of proportion. As I've previously pointed out, I-131 and other radiological particles have been detected repeatedly over the years. This is nothing new, and doesn't imply a nuclear explosion. Stations would detect more isotopes than just I-131 anyway, and we've still heard nothing to that effect. The WC-135C is an interesting development, but I wouldn't bet that that the I-131 detection and WC-135C's rebase are related. After all, why would the WC-135C be deployed this time in response to the I-131 detection, but not in response to any of the myriad other detections? Why would it be deployed so long after the detection was made, and after the two week detection event ended? WC-135C was likely rebased for an unrelated reason. I continue to suspect that the WC-135C's rebase indicates that NATO believes the probability of a Nucflash in Eastern Europe has increased.DEFCONWarningSystem said:
I wouldn't bet on the source of the I-131 being Russian.DEFCONWarningSystem said:
"Iodine-131 detected in Europe, don't buy into the fear porn ... It's just coming to light that slightly elevated levels of the isotope I-131 were recorded by radiation monitor stations around Europe in early January. I-131 has a half-life of only 8 days, which pinpoints a small window in which it could have been released into the atmosphere prior to the detection. Fanned by a recent deployment of the USAF WC-135 'Constant Phoenix,' some bloggers and news agencies are claiming that this is evidence of a Russian nuclear weapons test. While the Iodine-131 IS a byproduct of nuclear weapon detonation, there are many other radioisotopes created in the event that would have also been detected by monitor stations, which is not the case as pointed out by a recent press release by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO). While the source of the release remains a mystery, there in no danger to public health, and no supporting evidence of a nuclear weapons test."
http://blog.sigintel.org/2017/02/iodine-131-detected-in-europe-dont-buy.html
"In response to multiple inquiries over the past 48 hours, the CTBTO reports that the radionuclide (RN) stations of the International Monitoring System (IMS) are working normally. The radioactive isotope Iodine-131 is produced by nuclear fission in nuclear explosions, power reactors, and industrial and medical isotope facilities. It has an half-life of 8.02 days. It is one of the radioactive isotopes that the 80 planned stations of CTBTO’s IMS continuously monitor for indications of nuclear test explosions. Because of its wide industrial and medical uses, the CTBTO compares I-131 measurements against local historical levels. Although I-131 is frequently detected at trace levels by the stations of the IMS all over the world, no detections above typical local historical levels have been observed in the past several months. If a nuclear test were to take place that releases I-131 it would also be expected to release many other radioactive isotopes. Thus the CTBTO measures many isotopes. No other nuclear fission isotopes have been measured at elevated levels in conjunction with I-131 in Europe so far."
https://newsroom.ctbto.org/2017/02/20/media-advisory/
It is thus confirmed that the I-131 detection isn't the result of a nuclear weapons test or other nuclear detonation.
http://blog.sigintel.org/2017/02/iodine-131-detected-in-europe-dont-buy.html
"In response to multiple inquiries over the past 48 hours, the CTBTO reports that the radionuclide (RN) stations of the International Monitoring System (IMS) are working normally. The radioactive isotope Iodine-131 is produced by nuclear fission in nuclear explosions, power reactors, and industrial and medical isotope facilities. It has an half-life of 8.02 days. It is one of the radioactive isotopes that the 80 planned stations of CTBTO’s IMS continuously monitor for indications of nuclear test explosions. Because of its wide industrial and medical uses, the CTBTO compares I-131 measurements against local historical levels. Although I-131 is frequently detected at trace levels by the stations of the IMS all over the world, no detections above typical local historical levels have been observed in the past several months. If a nuclear test were to take place that releases I-131 it would also be expected to release many other radioactive isotopes. Thus the CTBTO measures many isotopes. No other nuclear fission isotopes have been measured at elevated levels in conjunction with I-131 in Europe so far."
https://newsroom.ctbto.org/2017/02/20/media-advisory/
It is thus confirmed that the I-131 detection isn't the result of a nuclear weapons test or other nuclear detonation.
What better way to test a weapon that violates the treaty than to do it and play dumb? Knowing the Russians they'll smoke screen the issue, act like they don't know what we're talking about, act concerned and offer assistance, while planning the next test. I'm curious to see what comes out of this. Testing an advanced warhead for their new missile designs perhaps?
Guys, I don't remember the exact location, but there was an incident in France at a nuclear plant on either Feb 9 or 10. An explosion was reported, but the claims at the time stated that it wasn't nuclear in nature. Go figure.
The Flamanville incident occurred in February. The I-131 detection was a month earlier in January. Furthermore, the highest level detections would have been in France if Flamanville was the origin. The highest level of I-131 was detected in Poland. They're unrelated.TCharley300 said:
Mishaps at nuclear plants will sometimes result in venting of I-131. The probablilty is higher in a trial phase (12 + months), than it is during regular operation. From your map, it would seem that Poland is alot closer to the source than the rest of the stations. The 1/10 reading at Vadsø (northern Norway) more or less excludes the Arctic/Kola as the origin.
From memory, I belive Poland is just now powering up some reactors togeather with Lithuania. If someone takes the time to study the wind-patterns of mid-january and overlay it with this map, I think one should be able to pin point the reactor of origin. Predominantly north-east at the time? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2017_European_cold_wave
My guess would be Poland or Ukraine. The latter is still running ractors with positive void factor originally designed for bomb production.
The reading in spain(togeather with the one in Poland) would suggest southern Ukraine if a north-eastern wind is presumed.
The Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Station is situated at Dnepr (middle-south Ukraine) and is the largest in Europe. Old crap built in the 80ies. It contains 6 reactors (pressure water, and I belive with positive void) in poor shape. The plant is continously under construction.
In addittion, an unfinished plant is listed in Odessa. I have no idea if fissiable material is present there or not.
Too bad no measurements exist from Italy or southeastern europe.
From memory, I belive Poland is just now powering up some reactors togeather with Lithuania. If someone takes the time to study the wind-patterns of mid-january and overlay it with this map, I think one should be able to pin point the reactor of origin. Predominantly north-east at the time? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2017_European_cold_wave
My guess would be Poland or Ukraine. The latter is still running ractors with positive void factor originally designed for bomb production.
The reading in spain(togeather with the one in Poland) would suggest southern Ukraine if a north-eastern wind is presumed.
The Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Station is situated at Dnepr (middle-south Ukraine) and is the largest in Europe. Old crap built in the 80ies. It contains 6 reactors (pressure water, and I belive with positive void) in poor shape. The plant is continously under construction.
In addittion, an unfinished plant is listed in Odessa. I have no idea if fissiable material is present there or not.
Too bad no measurements exist from Italy or southeastern europe.
Well officials polish agency responsible for radiation monitoringDoc said:
http://www.paa.gov.pl/aktualnosci.html
Use translator for checking
No info about iodine source.... reason...
Poland has no nuclear Plant..few small reactors. In order to confirm source you need to check wind.
It has huge impact......
Basicly some speculation , no smokiem gun.....
Official info do not confirmed till now any leakage from polish reactors.Local (polish regulatipn) require providing suitable info to the agency. No info about radiation in media till last few days.
Yes I came to the same conclusion. Another factor is that Ukraine is looking to restart antiquated reactors. Russia was previously working with Ukraine to that end, but Russia recently discontinued that cooperation. This would be a civil matter, and so I haven't kept up-to-date on the progress toward restart. Of course, progress toward restarts doesn't have to be related. Ukraine's presently operational reactors aren't considered terribly well maintained or competently operated. They're extending reactor life beyond what is recommended, while seeing multiple incidents in recent years, and while attempting to upgrade present reactors to operate more efficiently, for example with regard to load-following. We do know Ukraine is experiencing a coal shortage, where its reactors have had to compensate greatly for this. If I recall correctly, last year they were producing 50% of the country's energy, where this year nuclear energy is already producing sixty percent.Doc said:
Navarro said:
Zaporizhzhia is constantly under development. Im guessing that goes for the rest of their plants. Its an unholy mix of old and new design that will make your hairs stand up. The most corrupt country in europe, with the biggest energy crisis and one of the worst economies running soviet era nuclear power plants with American parts made in Sweden... If this was an airline, would you buy a ticket?
Interesting story: Back in...i think it was 05 or 06, the Ukranians bought American fuel rods (Westinghouse). They couldn't make them work in the Russian design. (The American PWR-fuel rods are square, while the equivalent Russian VVERs are hexagons. Dunno if that had anything to do with it, though. Just a funny geometrical fact.) Energoatom (Ukranian nuclear power company) blamed Westinghouse for delivering bad rods. Westinghouse blamed the Ukranians for mishandling their rods. Yet, both parties still signed the deal. They must have succeded in fireing up this Frankensteins Reactor, because after the Maidan, all nuclear fuel delivered to Ukraine has been Westinghouse. [This is interesting in another regard. It would seem that the Energoatom officials, or their masters, knew something about the future of the Ukraine all the way back in 05.]
All the while, the actual reactors are well above the age limit of their design. Radiation will, over time, erode what comes in its way. This includes steel and concrete. No problem if your budget allows you to shut one down at the time and refurbish the whole deal, but this is a country where the tires on the presidents limo are of four different origins.
If this doesn't make you stockpile Potassium Iodine, nothing else will.
In this case though, unless other isotopes are reported, it looks like a vent. Meaning somewhere in Ukraine somebody f**ked up and someone else saved the day.
I suspect both had an extra shot of Vodka that night.
(Edit: Couldn't find the void factor of their VVERs, and deleted a section as it was speculation).
So they didn't test a weapon, it could be a reactor leak but no one knows from where, and it originates from Russia somewhere, the higher you go the stronger it gets but no one can identify its origins. Okay. This definitely sounds like the news we're used to.
No this is not indicated.ThunderStealer said:
Maybe, but to my limited understanding of the subject, Ukraine isn't guaranteed to be the origin. There's certainly been I-131 venting from other non-Ukrainian reactors in region. Poland itself has a reactor, mind you. I do however agree that the pattern of the readings appears suggestive of Ukraine. However, what we're talking about is this:Doc said:
But that doesn't appear to make sense, because of this:
The problem appears to be that the levels detected aren't compensating for normal historical levels. If we knew what the normal historical levels were, and subtracted that from the readings shown, I think the map would look very differently.
So, this is my present guess:
"The Maria reactor is Poland's second research nuclear reactor and the only one still in use. It is located at Świerk-Otwock, near Warsaw"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maria_reactor
https://tools.wmflabs.org/geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Maria_reactor¶ms=52.1228_N_21.3439_E_source:kolossus-plwiki
It's still possible that the origin is actually Ukraine, or even Russia, but the Maria reactor appears probable. The reading of consequence was made at that reactor. Also, I suspect that the Spanish reading, if investigated, would prove to be within historical levels. However, it should be noted that, in fact, CTBTO says all levels detected are normal. This may then be nothing at all.