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UA-RU | February 18th-20th | REPORTS

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dave II judgement day said:
Most estimates have Russia encircling Kyiv right off the bat, especially the ones the US is talking about apparently based on intercepted communications. Do you mean Russia taking the whole country? Dont even know if we would get involved then even. (keep in mind that knowing this, after seeing this and expecting this to happen, still we keep swift off the table and state often that us troops and nato will not be involved unless this touches nato land)
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They want to keep swift in their back pocket for the next disaster. Otherwise, the next step is war.
 
TruthandJustice said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1495293221932515334

Need confirmation on location but look closely at vehicles. They also are marked with the same letter “Z”
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Yeah it all looks ominous but unless you have access to the metadata or someway to confirm time and place it always suspect.
But it certainly looks like their positioning to cross the line.
But again who really knows. The one thing you can say about this dust up is that a lot of people seem to be making it up as they go.
 
Obreid said:
I feel like there has been a change in Germany’s posture. They’ve been more involved last few days and outspoken and I’ve noticed nato flights out of England are no longer diverting around Germany. Some actually originating from RAMST
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Pretty sure it is the socialist card the russian threw as a cause for a pretext of "protecting" the rebels.
 
JxshuaL said:
and also how do you think the UK defcon status should look at the moment?
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We’re fine

Also for what it’s worth - maybe the reason nothing happens on these dates is that they’ve been called out. It’s clear the Americans don’t want this to happen.

If you had some awesome big secret plan that you wanted to surprise someone with, then someone told literally everyone about it, would you still do it? Or would you change your plans and do it some other time?
 
Train said:
We’re fine

Also for what it’s worth - maybe the reason nothing happens on these dates is that they’ve been called out. It’s clear the Americans don’t want this to happen.

If you had some awesome big secret plan that you wanted to surprise someone with, then someone told literally everyone about it, would you still do it? Or would you change your plans and do it some other time?
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Sometimes the war begins after hysteria in the media. Sometimes it happens that it is media hysteria that makes war inevitable. But the war has never gone according to a plan announced in the media in advance, so if any assault will happen in the date announced by the media, this will be the first such case in the history.
 
Private Hope said:
Just to clarify, are you implying that all 1400 explosions on DPR/LPR reported by OSCE yesterday were conducted by rebels, or just those with buildings hit?
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I’m not positive about what Truth and Justice is implying but I do t think that what they are implying.
Unlike Georgia there are no outside journalist currently reporting on these close in on the ground events. I don’t believe there is a way for us to know who the instigators are. I don’t believe it’s the Ukrainian gov forces because as I mentioned the Ukrainian Gov has zero to gain by instigating kinetic action. They’ve gotten a lot of squad level military aid and a lot of training. There not getting in to NATO anytime soon and most of Europe and the US is supporting them about as much as they can and should right now.
Putin can claim military maneuvers all he wants but there is zero chance escaping what his intentions are be it invade or just mass a overwhelming force and intimidate them. It’s bully tactics and it’s transparent.
The Rebels have the most to gain, and motive, to create false flags to drag Russian troops into contact.
Russia could also have a motive but that really depends their long term goal.
Is it to quickly take proxy control of Ukraine or as they claim just to get public and written guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO.
All that said on the Ukrainian side there are some private militias and some foreign mercs. I’ve seen a reports of a few from Georgia and Azerbaijan (might be wrong on last one). They might feel the time is right to spike the punch.
 
Obreid said:
I’m not positive about what Truth and Justice is implying but I do t think that what they are implying.
Unlike Georgia there are no outside journalist currently reporting on these close in on the ground events. I don’t believe there is a way for us to know who the instigators are. I don’t believe it’s the Ukrainian gov forces because as I mentioned the Ukrainian Gov has zero to gain by instigating kinetic action. They’ve gotten a lot of squad level military aid and a lot of training. There not getting in to NATO anytime soon and most of Europe and the US is supporting them about as much as they can and should right now.
Putin can claim military maneuvers all he wants but there is zero chance escaping what his intentions are be it invade or just mass a overwhelming force and intimidate them. It’s bully tactics and it’s transparent.
The Rebels have the most to gain, and motive, to create false flags to drag Russian troops into contact.
Russia could also have a motive but that really depends their long term goal.
Is it to quickly take proxy control of Ukraine or as they claim just to get public and written guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO.
All that said on the Ukrainian side there are some private militias and some foreign mercs. I’ve seen a reports of a few from Georgia and Azerbaijan (might be wrong on last one). They might feel the time is right to spike the punch.
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Here is one American journalist covering from the front lines: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCbjTWVaRx6jMN5ZYgbqe2_w . There are also military journalists covering from the other side.

If we want to discuss about motives for the war, there are plenty for all sides, except for civilian populations of Ukraine, Russia and those living in rebel states. There is an ongoing discussion here: https://community.defconwarningsyst...russian-propaganda-and-dealing-with-it.15751/
My personal opinion is that:
a. military personal on places hates the other side, so when a large scale artillery shelling happens, it it easy for both sides to go above just firing back. This is just a people's nature. Most war crimes in history were commited by people who were just deformed by the war and were not ordered from above, with the exception of things like WW2 where nazi commited genocide on a state level.
b. a few days before we started to discuss that the military action by russia could be just focused on LPR/DPR stabilization. This is a possible scenario and practically what happened in 2014. If so, combined with multiple Ukrainian reports that no threat to Kiev or other territories, this could mean that Ukraine does not believe in a large-scale Russian invasion. If so, and if they believe only a limited action can be taken, this might give a very high motivation to provoke Russia for a limited action. First, this will result in huge sanction which is what US and Ukraine wants (goodbye Nordstream 2). Second, it will result in further military and financial aid, which is very beneficial.

In this scenario Russia has the least interest in a limited action. They will probably try to stay away from it for as long as possible, because the longer they do so, the more ambiguous the whole situation will look like by the rest. So there will be a limited timeframe to commit this scenario and thus Russia must be provoked quickly. The deadline I see is Feb 22, where Blinken - Lavrov meeting is gonna happen. But if Russia is provoked (or decides to take action for whatever reason), I see it less and less likely to be limited, because sanctions will likely be placed anyway and limited operation solves nothing: it will happen over and over again.
 
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