DEFCONWarningSystem said:
How do we know they don't want a conflict with Nato? Easy. Think like a Russian.
Consider: Russia invades...say...Lithuania.
What would Russia think Nato's response would be? Simply come to the defense of Lithuania? No. They'd think Nato would push further, right into Russia. Remember, Russia is terrified of invasion. This was the whole point of Warsaw: To put a bunch of countries around Russia as a shield.
Yes, Russia wants to rebuild their empire. So yes they are looking at getting/swallowing more countries. But Nato countries are Big Time Hands Off. At least militarily. And any war with Nato, as far as Russia is concerned, would never stay outside Russia's borders. Which of course is why any war with Nato will likely go nuclear.
You make good points really, but as far as Russians are concerned, NATO is already making the push into Russia, or at least into areas formerly dominated by Russia...which Putin still thinks he has an obligation to defend (at least the ethnic russians there anyway). I also agree with you on the point that any interference into the Baltic states may begin with something similar to what happened in Ukraine, but the subject of this thread could be the start of this.
Many experts believe that Russia's inferiority complex in regard to conventional methods against NATO, may prompt Russia to believe that nuclear weapons are their best bet. I forget his name, I can look it up, he's part of the Russian think tank, and an advisor to the Kremlin. This person believes that Russia can use smaller, tacticle nukes in an isolated manner if war breaks out, and this act alone may be enough to send NATO running. Right or wrong, just the thought of this is worrying. I know it sounds like a gamble, but Putin seems to be a gambling man. I mean, if you think about it, he risks an escalation every time he decides to send his bombers near NATO territory or buzz a NATO jet or battleship.
As you said, any confrontation with NATO is likely to go nuclear, and this is what worries me. Taking things back to March 16th, we're not sure what happened, we all agree on this...but it does appear as though
something happened. Russia is also performing drills primary based on a "takeover" situation, not sure of the baltics, but other states such as Sweden and Finland...who are not NATO. Still, I think even though they are not NATO states, they may be treated as such if Russia decides to go after them.
So lets say that NATO and Russia do get into it over say, Finland, at that point, Russia wouldn't have anything to lose. Though not a NATO nation, its closely tied to the NATO alliance and won't be treated like just another Ukraine. In fact, these damaging sanctions already have many russians to the "we got nothing to lose" point. I will agree that it's not likely that Russia will
directly invade a NATO state, but we shouldn't underestimate the seriousness of the current situation. I think we can also agree that one slight disagreement, one slight miscalculation, can send us to a place that neither side really wants to go to.
I think the NATO buildup very near Kaliningrad is basically saying, "if you attack one of us, then we can attack part of you."
Russians do fear invasion, but this can be dangerous as well, as they can justify just about any action in the fear that Russia may be at risk of such. This buildup of military by NATO on Russia's borders, can be interpretted as a prelude to invasion, which of course results in no holds barred..which includes the preumptive use of nuclear weapons, which the Russian docterine now allows for.
If I was to "think like a russian", then I would be convinced that NATO is already on the verge of invading, therefore, I would attack first in self defense. Russian news may be full of propaganda, but it can still be useful in telling us about the current mindset of the Russian people...and this is what that mindset is. Attack NATO before they attack us.
I want to be clear, I do not disagree with NATO's latest decision to the buildup, Russia historically doesn't understand anything except the threat of force....both Kennedy and Reagan effectively demonstrated this. I just fear that it's too little too late. Somewhere down the line, Obama has Putin convinced that America is not going to do anything, therefore NATO, is weak. This being the case, Mutural Assured Destruction may no longer apply in Putin's eyes. He may be willing to bet that if an isolated war breaks out, it will end in NATO's retreat once tacticle nukes are introduced into the game. If this happens, and the Baltics are allowed to fall into Russia's hands, then it will effectively destroy the NATO alliance, making Russia a major player in Europe. I can't say that this is Putin's endgame, but I can't say that it isn't either.
On a side note, I really am enjoying this conversation. America needs more intelligent and realistic discussions such as this.
