UA-RU | DISCUSSIONS

REALHumanRights

Well-known member
Ok. The question of raising the Defcon level has come up several times. So I just have t ask.

What in the grand scheme of anything going on Would a private web site lowering it's Defcon (private opinion ) Level change? Would it change Putin's attitude towards Ukraine? Would it change your preparedness level? You/we all read this site on a regular basis,
and I have to believe we are all perceptive enough to process the info , and adjust our own Defcon Levels accordingly.
Absolutely correct and 100% agree. It was simply my opinion.
 

TCharley300

Well-known member

Yes, the same article is in the reports section. Now, I want to at least try to get some things straight. I emphasize the use of logic in making determinations of your personal state of readiness. I"m not playing political, I'm not playing the fear game, and I'm using every possible source of information (either good or bad) to at least make a personal determination.

Here's what to look for to help make a plausible decision. The first thing will be those referendums. Even if they are fake--that area could very possibly be the match that is struck and heading for the fuse. When you have such large areas of unrest and demonstrations in various large Russian cities, the mass exodus of people trying to leave the areas to go into other countries, plane tickets that normally would be $250 in US dollars suddenly going for $5224 for the same ticket and STILL being sold out??? Folks, that's serious shit right there. Now you are having flight cancellations due to either military activity or weather????? Well, checking weather conditions, you had temperatures of 45f winds of 4 mph, very light rain. So, the cancellations under "normal" circumstances certainly wouldn't be weather conditions. It has to be "the other reason".

OH, let's look at borders. Well, I certainly can't recall in my lifetime (pretty long period) of lines of cars stuck in a traffic jam that was 35 kilometers long. Now, that was cars trying to leave Russia and get into Finland.

Then, to top that off, according to War News 24/7 with the headlines of Putin activates the nuclear doctrine: Referendum in Donetsk-Lugansk Sept 23-27 -Kherson-Zaporizie follow-End of the "Special Operation"

Of course, there was so much hoop-la about Sept 24. When that stuff was being thrown out there, there wasn't a single word about any referendum at that time. It makes me wonder inwardly, is there some truth to this crap? Well, across the pond, it's already Sept [email protected] 0600, so personally, I"m just hoping it's just another day and not a day to remember in any special way.

Trust your instincts and not your "end stinks".

In my defense, I don't follow War News 24/7---don't know a thing about them, but like I said earlier, I"m trying to pull from everywhere to at least try to make decisions in a logical manner. It's not easy, because frankly, you don't know who to believe or trust.

I would very highly recommend that you go back to Emergency Readiness forum and look through what I posted several months ago, and all the other good sources of information.

To wrap it up--These are truly times that try men's souls.
 
Well, I've been more or less following this website since 2013 (if I remember correctly). Pretty long time. In all those years there were several changes of the DEFCON level. Sometimes very quick, sometimes very slow, sometimes more or less understandable. This situation right now imo belongs to the category of "less understandable".

The war has turned into another phase. After the Kharkiv offensive, Putin decided to choose the path of escalation by announcing (partial) mobilization, followed by a series of threats, including nuclear, where he also felt the need to emphasize that he is "not bluffing". This is a clear sign of weakness to me. But something that should still be taken seriously in terms of escalation out of desperation. Let me be more specific. I don't want to say that he will actually go and use tactical nukes. Also, I see in no way that he would suddenly launch a nuclear attack on the west. Completely bullshit. But what the concerning point here is, is that Russia is climbing up the escalation ladder where in the end, Putin might become desperate enough at some point to actually play the nuclear card, despite the costs. He is already limiting his option by his speech 2 days ago, reinforced by Medvewed yesterday. This is especially in light of the current "referendums" which have already partially began at this moment and surely will proceed with the result of those territories occupied being annexed and incorporated into Russia. What follows next has dangerous potential. If Ukraine keeps pushing (and they surely will attempt and most likely do that) they are (from Russias point of view) attacking Russian territory. Mobilization will take time, maybe months to have any effect on the battlefield. The Russian military doctrine allows the use of tactical nukes to defend its territory. Putin himself declared that he will use "every means possible" to defend Russian territory. So if this interpretation includes annexed territory as well, Putin is backing himself into a corner. What will happen next, who knows. But what I am certain is that Putin will not back down in this war. He wants to win it, his career and maybe even his life now depends on it. How far will he go? I hope he won't go all-in but it has become a serious risk at this point in the war.

This is a combination of factors that, in my point of view, don't justify the current DEFCON level, because if he orders the use of tactical nukes to stop the Ukranian army, the west (foremost the US) will intervene. There are several reasons why they will, despite the consequences of such a decision. This could and most likely will set off a quick chain of events that will lead to a direct confrontation with Russia which have the immediate risk of a direct nuclear confrontation. However, it's still unlikely (right now), I think, but the total likelihood have increased significantly with recent events. In the past the DEFCON level was changed for far less critical reasons.

It's my personal analysis. I'm not recommending to change the DEFCON level, that's not my job and I think you guys have your own internal discussions/judgement. I'm just pointing out the risk factor the current situation bears. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
 

Braver911

Member
Well, I've been more or less following this website since 2013 (if I remember correctly). Pretty long time. In all those years there were several changes of the DEFCON level. Sometimes very quick, sometimes very slow, sometimes more or less understandable. This situation right now imo belongs to the category of "less understandable".

The war has turned into another phase. After the Kharkiv offensive, Putin decided to choose the path of escalation by announcing (partial) mobilization, followed by a series of threats, including nuclear, where he also felt the need to emphasize that he is "not bluffing". This is a clear sign of weakness to me. But something that should still be taken seriously in terms of escalation out of desperation. Let me be more specific. I don't want to say that he will actually go and use tactical nukes. Also, I see in no way that he would suddenly launch a nuclear attack on the west. Completely bullshit. But what the concerning point here is, is that Russia is climbing up the escalation ladder where in the end, Putin might become desperate enough at some point to actually play the nuclear card, despite the costs. He is already limiting his option by his speech 2 days ago, reinforced by Medvewed yesterday. This is especially in light of the current "referendums" which have already partially began at this moment and surely will proceed with the result of those territories occupied being annexed and incorporated into Russia. What follows next has dangerous potential. If Ukraine keeps pushing (and they surely will attempt and most likely do that) they are (from Russias point of view) attacking Russian territory. Mobilization will take time, maybe months to have any effect on the battlefield. The Russian military doctrine allows the use of tactical nukes to defend its territory. Putin himself declared that he will use "every means possible" to defend Russian territory. So if this interpretation includes annexed territory as well, Putin is backing himself into a corner. What will happen next, who knows. But what I am certain is that Putin will not back down in this war. He wants to win it, his career and maybe even his life now depends on it. How far will he go? I hope he won't go all-in but it has become a serious risk at this point in the war.

This is a combination of factors that, in my point of view, don't justify the current DEFCON level, because if he orders the use of tactical nukes to stop the Ukranian army, the west (foremost the US) will intervene. There are several reasons why they will, despite the consequences of such a decision. This could and most likely will set off a quick chain of events that will lead to a direct confrontation with Russia which have the immediate risk of a direct nuclear confrontation. However, it's still unlikely (right now), I think, but the total likelihood have increased significantly with recent events. In the past the DEFCON level was changed for far less critical reasons.

It's my personal analysis. I'm not recommending to change the DEFCON level, that's not my job and I think you guys have your own internal discussions/judgement. I'm just pointing out the risk factor the current situation bears. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

He has said this before, even the hilarious inept ‘I’m not bluffing’ bit. And people on social or watching the news go apeshit. We’ve seen the India/Pakistan thing happen the same way. The I’ve got nukes and I’ll use em threat has been one way to deter actions from outside entities because they know it’ll scare the crap outta the general populace. The question here is is it likely he will use them? or will he put his entire country at risk By turning a great deal of it to ash? We’ve heard these threats a lot over a lot of years. But they’ve only showed us once during the Cuban missile crisis that the threat was very real. The thing here is to watch for movement and deployments. That’s what these folks at DWS are looking for. Not so much as words but actions. Everyone knows the cost. They understand this isn’t ‘the boy who cried wolf’ episode because he did it for fun. Putin isn’t dumb and we shouldn’t be either. Evaluating this is very difficult because it’s happened so often with just a statement. These guys know what to look for and what to disregard with so many platforms giving off very bad intel. my stance is as long as they’re talking, things are fine. When they stop talking that’s when they’re acting.
 

Arch

Member
OH, let's look at borders. Well, I certainly can't recall in my lifetime (pretty long period) of lines of cars stuck in a traffic jam that was 35 kilometers long. Now, that was cars trying to leave Russia and get into Finland.
The first thing you always need to start with is fact-checking. I searched for information in English and Russian.
1) there is a video on YT with a title "Russians flee to avoid the mobilization. 35km long traffic jam". Shared by multiple channels. For example:

Agence France Presse did a great job and found that this video is from August 29 and there is nothing extraordinary comparing with other days. Source: https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.32JW4ZX-1

2) The Finnish Border Guard counted 4,824 Russians who arrived in Finland via the border with Russia on September 21, compared with 3,133 one week prior on September 14. Source: https://archive.ph/uTmxw

3) Real-time web-cam from the above mentioned border checkpoint: https://nagranitse.ru/webcams (as you can see, nothing extraordinary).

I think Ukrainian users have misled you.
 

intel-bank

Active member
The first thing you always need to start with is fact-checking. I searched for information in English and Russian.
1) there is a video on YT with a title "Russians flee to avoid the mobilization. 35km long traffic jam". Shared by multiple channels. For example:

Agence France Presse did a great job and found that this video is from August 29 and there is nothing extraordinary comparing with other days. Source: https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.32JW4ZX-1

2) The Finnish Border Guard counted 4,824 Russians who arrived in Finland via the border with Russia on September 21, compared with 3,133 one week prior on September 14. Source: https://archive.ph/uTmxw

3) Real-time web-cam from the above mentioned border checkpoint: https://nagranitse.ru/webcams (as you can see, nothing extraordinary).

I think Ukrainian users have misled you.
Finish Border Patrol said traffic is usual. Which makes sense. Anyone who could leave and didn't want to fight in the war has left. Nobody can really escape this. They are watching the borders.
But Russians ARE responding.
 

Bravo

Active member
I can oppose the Russian invasion and recognize the facts for what they are without the melodrama. I can condemn Russian war crimes (which sadly too many other countries are guilty of and won't ever be held accountable) and recognize genocide has a specific definition. Whether it is a "cold strategic caluculation" by the Russian dictator, I can realize that letting more Ukraine people die for this, let alone escalation of this, is also a reckless decision as well. Two wrongs don't make a right. Of course, we condemn the Russia invasion. But we cannot do the LONG-term strategic work to undo this mess by ignoring what Russian people believe (even if they are wrong).
As first I wont to apologize. ATM I got problems, so I cant answer immediately, mostly I'm reading.

I agree with you about the Invasion and your point about Genocide. My point about the "cold strategic calculation" and why I posted this, are the following Reasons:
My Point is, that the escalation was planned years ago (perhaps over decades). Call it conspiracy theory or paranoia, but there are (imho) indicators that point in this direction.
Schröder (Putins best friend, former Counselor of Germany) destroyed in his era many important sources of the German Security. He and his Cabinet shrunk the Bundeswehr massively, damaged the BND (no countermeasures against Russian Spies, shutdown of COINS sources). Schröder also denies the American requests for help in the War on Terror in Irak, that led to a bit complicated relations between US/GER. And he brought Germany unnecessarily in a need for Russian Gas. There are more negative points about this, mostly for the German Society.

The next level was Merkel with her destabilization through migration (some say she was a STASI agent and they might be right). Also the German "Atomausstieg", now we need even more gas. In her time we face massive changes in our society and those were not for good. As examples here are a massive upcoming off "real" conspiracy theories like "NATO is bad, Russia is good" and a growing fraction of so called "Putin Lovers". This just for example.

Last point is the so called "Opposition" in Germany. They are sponsored open by Moscow and the Kremlin (like the AfD) or covert sponsored (like the "Reichsbürgerbewegung" or some left-winged extremists, example "Die Linke").

All of my observations in the last years lead me to one Point: Russian Influence. Perhaps a Coincidence, perhaps not. I don't really feel comfortable about this whole thing and I don't feel shure. It are just too much Points.

My opinion is, that we have to support the Ukraine. It is reckless on all sides, Ukrainian Military, their Society, their Infrastructure, ... and i feel really ashamed to suggest that because of the costs of this Conflict.
But in my opinion we have to clearly extrapolate, how the Russian System is working and how the NATO itself can counter it effectively. After the Ukraine, Europe might be on Russias Agenda as well. In this scenario, I'm hoping honestly that my opinion is just a theory and this whole thing will be over before it starts really.
 

Seriously

Member
And here is what I heard yesterday. Putin's words, not mine (obviously), but some will miss that. "The goal of the West is to weaken and eventually destroy our country. They did that directly back in 1991, they managed to divide the Soviet Union, and now the time has come to do the same with Russia." "These are the plans that they had been having for some time." "we are fighting against... the collective West war machine." "in their address against Russian policies, the West has crossed the line, we keep hearing threats against our country, against our people. Certain irresponsible politicians from the West have stated about their plans to supply long range weapons that would allow them to strike Crimea and other regions of Russia.. "terrorist attacks using the Western weapons.. using contemporary satellites strategic aviation UNMASS vehicles and NATO is performing the reconnaissance across the entire Eastern border." "They don't even hide it when they say Russia should be destroyed... and they should deprive our country of any sort of sovereignty and they should rob our country of everything."
"They have started nuclear blackmail. I am not just talking about attacks on the (unclear) nuclear power plant that is related by the Western leaders. I am talking about the statements by high-level representatives of the NATO countries about the accessibility (?) of using weapons of mass destruction against Russia - nuclear weapons.To those who allow themselves such statements regarding Russia, I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction, and for separate components and more modern than those of NATO countries and when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, to defend and protect Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the means that we have. I am not bluffing. The citizens of Russia can be confident that we will defend the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the country." "And to those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that the wind patterns towards them as well. The destiny of our people is to stop those who want to dominate the world, those who want to enslave our homeland, our fatherland, and we will do that as well."

No doubt hot air, and perhaps everyone laughs when he says "I am not bluffing." That's a big gamble for our USA/NATO strategic defense.

But this is a leader that is building a rational to clearly justify some type of strike against the West, NOT Ukraine. These are words by someone who is willing, even anxious to go to war with the West. I think those who missed that part of the address by the Russia Dictator Putin are not seeing that point.
Your correct, that’s why the response is a yawn, Yes he says the west is going to sack destroy Russia, He’s been saying that for twenty years.
That is because his presidency been about redefining what it means for survival of the Russian nation people.
The problem is his definition of that is irreconcilable tied to the restoration of all or parts of the old soviet map.

He’s not talking about defending the homeland but restoring what was lost.
I’ve read his speeches from the past twenty years. Or the rhetoric out of Russia this spring that any Ukrainians who are not loyal to Moscow are traitors and less than dogs.

Trying to redefine what it means to protect the motherland and resurrect the bones of the Soviet Union are not the same thing.

We had this exact argument right here on defcon in late March early April. “What exactly does Putin want, what exactly are his intentions? Should we take him seriously about using tactical nukes.

Well he’s singing a new song to the same old tune. And we’re still debating is he serious or not.

I don’t believe he is.
Keep steady pressure on the Russian army to decamp Ukrainian territory.
Constantly be very clear in Ukraine and the west that this is only and has ever been about driving Russian forces from Ukraine.
Your right there are some in the west who would like this to produce Putin’s removal.
That should never be our goal. It’s mission creep and gives Putin examples of why the west is out to get Russia.

As far as military strategy in Ukraine. I would say creating breakthroughs and driving Russian forces back are a winning strategy. Not just a war of attrition wantonly resulting in Ukrainian deaths.

This is the same argument we had in April.
Is or isn’t Putin serious
Should or shouldn’t Ukrainians continue to fight

He’s obviously proven not to be (I shouldn’t just say serious, it could be he’s not able) and they have obviously proven willing to.
 
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Socom7

Active member
It's my personal analysis. I'm not recommending to change the DEFCON level, that's not my job and I think you guys have your own internal discussions/judgement. I'm just pointing out the risk factor the current situation bears. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.
True, but the whole discussion is somewhat vacuous. We're - and by that I mean the society at large - are obsessed with numbers and ratings. Everything needs to be wrapped up into a neat little number for easy consumption. Having read your post, it seems you're sufficiently well informed to not actually care about what this site's DEFCON level is. This also goes for many others who post here.
 

Braver911

Member
This Beatrice Fihn must love Fantasyland. Of course I expected nothing less from MSNBC. Nuclear weapons are here to stay….(hopefully she’s writing this down)…Ever since one human has picked up a stick and another picked up a rock the strongest weapon has been the best deterrence. How can you expect the leaders of all these countries to get together and ban nuclear weapons when you know you can’t get that many people to agree on anything. Hell, you couldn’t get the Ten Commandments through the US Congress even if Moses was buying drinks.
 
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Peace

Active member
Ukraine needs to cut a deal while they are still a country. Otherwise Z will be dead in a few weeks and Ukraine will be reduced to smoldering mess left for the west. Russia is about to go full NATO and destroy all infrastructure and transportation. 75% of the refugees will never return and will be in the west countries for the riots and protests over winter being trained to cause havoc should come in handy in EU during the winter. The EU solidarity will collapse over sanctions and then it is a slow burn to the end of the western economic system.
Also if China starts to blockade Taiwan how can we help them and Ukraine. Both the EU and our supplies are running low. We have been pulling equipment lately from active and reserve units to send to Ukraine. Our startegic reserves are down to 20 days and still being drained. Can we really conduct a war against both at the same time. What is winning for us is it losing half our Navy that cant be replaced.
 

Irag8er

Well-known member
Major Contributor
Ukraine needs to cut a deal while they are still a country. Otherwise Z will be dead in a few weeks and Ukraine will be reduced to smoldering mess left for the west. Russia is about to go full NATO and destroy all infrastructure and transportation. 75% of the refugees will never return and will be in the west countries for the riots and protests over winter being trained to cause havoc should come in handy in EU during the winter. The EU solidarity will collapse over sanctions and then it is a slow burn to the end of the western economic system.
Also if China starts to blockade Taiwan how can we help them and Ukraine. Both the EU and our supplies are running low. We have been pulling equipment lately from active and reserve units to send to Ukraine. Our startegic reserves are down to 20 days and still being drained. Can we really conduct a war against both at the same time. What is winning for us is it losing half our Navy that cant be replaced.
All interesting points. Keep in mind, that this is a mid-term election year here in the US, and every election year is preceded by some sort of "October Surprise".
This years "surprise" could very well be one on an international scare. Including any of those mentioned above.
 

TCharley300

Well-known member
The first thing you always need to start with is fact-checking. I searched for information in English and Russian.
1) there is a video on YT with a title "Russians flee to avoid the mobilization. 35km long traffic jam". Shared by multiple channels
Well, I've caught some of the fact checking through the past few years, and they come up with some doozies. If there ever was a site that I personally DONT TRUST--it's the fact checker site. I'm not taking sides in either direction. I don't have a dog in this fight, although this particular dog fight will affect everyone. That's why I"m watching closely. I do have friends over there, and they've been friends for many years. They are just regular folks, like me, and so many others that read this site. One of them is now a 35 yr old male, ( I went to see his older sister) and yes, he was in the long line. And, it wasn't in August, it was just after the speech. The entire family is leaving, and I know I won't be hearing from them for a long time, and if things 'go south', that's probably the last time I will ever hear from them. I can only wish them well and hope that they will be safe. It's just a little piece of my past that always gave me fond memories of a trip of a lifetime, and I hate to see that small connection disappear.

Now, as far as the color of the leaves goes, their fall is different than ours. They don't have long lasting colors or slow changes like we do. Basically in a week's time, their leaves are gone. The change occurs very quickly. I personally know, because when things were normal, years ago, I was over there and noted the quick change.

It's difficult to make comparisions unless you've been over there. Here in the states, (don't know about Alaska) but generally, the sun travel will cross the entire sky from E to W. Over there?? the travel is somewhat like a horseshoe and doesn't cross the sky from E to W. The amount of daylight decreases as much as 5 to 10 minutes a day depending upon the location, because of being so far north, approaching winter. But, the summer is opposite. Remember the saying The land of the midnight sun?? It's very true, but that's in the summer months. I didn't get to go visit in the summer months. In fact, it was 2006 in the beginning of fall at this time period I was heading that way for the very first trip.
 

Erecon

Active member
Ukraine needs to cut a deal while they are still a country. Otherwise Z will be dead in a few weeks and Ukraine will be reduced to smoldering mess left for the west. Russia is about to go full NATO and destroy all infrastructure and transportation. 75% of the refugees will never return and will be in the west countries for the riots and protests over winter being trained to cause havoc should come in handy in EU during the winter. The EU solidarity will collapse over sanctions and then it is a slow burn to the end of the western economic system.
Also if China starts to blockade Taiwan how can we help them and Ukraine. Both the EU and our supplies are running low. We have been pulling equipment lately from active and reserve units to send to Ukraine. Our startegic reserves are down to 20 days and still being drained. Can we really conduct a war against both at the same time. What is winning for us is it losing half our Navy that cant be replaced.
Seems like Russian Wishfull thinking.
 

Erecon

Active member
All interesting points. Keep in mind, that this is a mid-term election year here in the US, and every election year is preceded by some sort of "October Surprise".
This years "surprise" could very well be one on an international scare. Including any of those mentioned above.
Well we have upcomming 20th National congress of the Chinese Communist Party meeting on the 16th Oct, we will see if Xi gets reelected after loosing face.
 

REALHumanRights

Well-known member
This is the same argument we had in April.
Is or isn’t Putin serious
Should or shouldn’t Ukrainians continue to fight
I understand your point of view. I just don't believe it is the same issue debated in April.
I believe the 9/22 address by the Russia dictator Putin makes an unequivocal and specific threat towards the West (aka USA).
That is a different subject than what the Ukrainians should or should not do.
I also believe if Europe was truly leading the "Ukraine resistance support," we would be heaing a different story. Washington D.C. and USA are considered generally expendable by many other nations. If this was a Europe-led "resistance," with Putin talking about threats to London, Paris, Berlin, Rome, etc., I believe we would be hearing a different world reaction to his threats of retaliation.
 
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