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- Apr 3, 2021
yes I think that is possible ploy, attack where they(UA) are not looking or have sufficient troops plus it could just be a distraction so UA pull troops from the front.
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UA-RU-NATO | DISCUSSIONS 14th July - 1st October 2023
- Thread starter Torch
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yes I think that is possible ploy, attack where they(UA) are not looking or have sufficient troops plus it could just be a distraction so UA pull troops from the front.
- Joined
- Mar 3, 2021
The GLOBAL SOUTH is taking over!!!
What is sad is the people that seam to hope for NATO to enter the war. I assume you don't care about America or our way of life because why would you want our nation destroyed. Hoping to live mad max days. Truth is I don't think NATO is going in and this whole Obama/Biden Russia assault to destroy them has failed. The west now has destroyed itself economically. Now 40 more Nations want to join BRICS. The next 10 years will see the west shrink both economically and hegemonic on the world stage. Even de-risking is stupid because our factories that are leaving China are just setting up shop in another BRICS country! How does that help us? Soon the swift alternative goes online and our dollar will drop fast!
Does Germany and France fall out of the G7 because the drop in their incomes?
The US destroyed the Wests GDP.
World Economic Outlook Update, July 2023: Near-Term Resilience, Persistent Challenges
Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024. The rise in central bank policy rates to fight inflation continues to weigh on economic activity. Global headline inflation is expected to fall from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.8 percent...www.imf.org
When will people in the WEST admit the truth how Biden failed them and the American people. Cant wait for all of the US and EU elections next year.
We will not go down without a fight!
- Joined
- Apr 3, 2021
I think it's time too stop sending money too the poor countries in Africa that support the war against the UA, Russians are going to starve millions in Africa with what they have done to the grain deal.........it's time to kick Russia out of the UN.
- Joined
- Jul 26, 2023
I think we should support Ukraine far more than now. Maybe as much as 5% of US GDP. If they have our Bradleys and Abrams tanks, our financial support and F-16s, we will crush Russia and Putin have his anus violated like Gaddafi. This would be a glorious victory for america and send a clear message to CCP not to fuck with Taiwan. God I wish we nuked moscow lmao
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- Jun 27, 2019
What are your thoughts about the next Russian Mobilisation guys? Looks to me that they will reach the level of "General Mobilisation" And normally you would see all neighbors begin to mobilize as well if that is the case. ( history wise )
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- Apr 3, 2021
it's hard to say at this time I think that Putin has troubles ahead of him with his own people in the forces.
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- Apr 7, 2016
- Location
- Indiana, US
This is absolutely false. The Corridor is 100% NATO territory.
NATO Must Prepare to Defend Its Weakest Point—the Suwalki Corridor
On the Polish-Lithuanian border, the West must respond to Russia’s actual capabilities rather than making assumptions about its intent.
foreignpolicy.com
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2021
I will see the video: it seems interesting. However, I agree with you that the powers should avoid that, but they don't seems to try to avoid that: they seems putting gazoline on the fire giving the gazoline to Ukraine and leaving only Ukraine burn. So, if you act in this way - and we act in this way - and the fire arrives at the point to make you feel the heat (as to say that people taking the sun bath at the sea begin to think that maybe it's time to start to be really afraid) and then you run away without having ever made a step ahead after having said "we will stend with you until the final victory!" and after people have demostrated to be absolutely in favor to send weapons... then this would be a cowardly behaviour.
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- Joined
- Feb 28, 2017
- Location
- Perth Western Australia
Love your work thankyou so much really appreciate itThis is absolutely false. The Corridor is 100% NATO territory.
NATO Must Prepare to Defend Its Weakest Point—the Suwalki Corridor
On the Polish-Lithuanian border, the West must respond to Russia’s actual capabilities rather than making assumptions about its intent.
You wrong side of the world troll you!
- Joined
- Apr 17, 2022
- Location
- Tropical Queensland, Australia
Sorry but you got that wrong. Not a troll but on other side of world yes. Previously worked with US military and on Darpa projects so had had exposure to NATO activites. Now on other side of world can be an independent observer by being upside down and having a different perspectiveYou wrong side of the world troll you!
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- May 15, 2022
One hopes you don't live in Perth, which is currently not claimed by any particular country, and there's a good case to be made for it being Chinese territory.
- Joined
- May 15, 2022
Russian forum trolls aside, there is a dynamic at play here that escapes most people's attention.
A general election is due in Poland this fall, and it is in the Kremlin's interest to keep the existing lot in power (they're extremely anti-EU and anti-West; permeated by Russian intelligence; many consider Germany - not Russia - to be the "true enemy" of Poland). The ruling party is struggling in the polls, which leads most rational observers to expect a constitutional coup (note that Poland is a sham democracy at this point - I'd be happy to explain why, but I don't want to post a wall of text). In any case, a pretext is required for an outright power grab. This may very well come in the form of a military provocation on the Polish border, which would allow the government to introduce a state of emergency, postpone elections indefinitely, and brand anyone who opposes such measures as "Russian agents". This is a perfectly plausible scenario, and many here outright expect it.
From the Kremlin's POV this has to be weighed against the risk of uncontrolled escalation - however, it might explain the presence of Wagner in Belarus, as well as Luka's weird comments voiced during his recent visit to Moscow (he complained that "the Wagner guys are saying they want to 'visit' Warsaw and Rzeszów"). Luka has consistently tried to stay out of this war, and may still be trying to, but if Putin uses Belarus as a staging ground for attacks on NATO countries - Poland, primarily - then he has failed in his objective.
Militarily speaking, the 4000 or so Wagnerites currently present in Belarus are, of course, not capable of conquering and holding Polish territory; however, various provocations cannot be ruled out for reasons outlined above.
A general election is due in Poland this fall, and it is in the Kremlin's interest to keep the existing lot in power (they're extremely anti-EU and anti-West; permeated by Russian intelligence; many consider Germany - not Russia - to be the "true enemy" of Poland). The ruling party is struggling in the polls, which leads most rational observers to expect a constitutional coup (note that Poland is a sham democracy at this point - I'd be happy to explain why, but I don't want to post a wall of text). In any case, a pretext is required for an outright power grab. This may very well come in the form of a military provocation on the Polish border, which would allow the government to introduce a state of emergency, postpone elections indefinitely, and brand anyone who opposes such measures as "Russian agents". This is a perfectly plausible scenario, and many here outright expect it.
From the Kremlin's POV this has to be weighed against the risk of uncontrolled escalation - however, it might explain the presence of Wagner in Belarus, as well as Luka's weird comments voiced during his recent visit to Moscow (he complained that "the Wagner guys are saying they want to 'visit' Warsaw and Rzeszów"). Luka has consistently tried to stay out of this war, and may still be trying to, but if Putin uses Belarus as a staging ground for attacks on NATO countries - Poland, primarily - then he has failed in his objective.
Militarily speaking, the 4000 or so Wagnerites currently present in Belarus are, of course, not capable of conquering and holding Polish territory; however, various provocations cannot be ruled out for reasons outlined above.
- Joined
- Apr 17, 2022
- Location
- Tropical Queensland, Australia
No not Perth but do live in an area where we have a Chinese surveillance boat offshore and had about 10 fighter jets doing exercise flights in the area. The most interesting part was the helicopter troop drops at the end of the street. The advantage of living in an area where there are regular multi-force exercises. When the red flags are on the road we all know that live firing is being done so still have not got completely away from the US military.
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- Sep 6, 2022
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- Fly over country
Thanks for the regional insight!
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- Mar 9, 2023
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- Georgia, US
That is an interesting perspective and seems plausible.
So let's say that does happen. Where does that lead? If Poland starts indiscriminately locking up "Russian agents" under a state of emergency, they will invariably lock up a Russian agent (even a broken clock is right twice a day). How is that in Russia's interest? Does Russia want an unstable country on it's border, particularly one that consistently seems to be hawkish against Russia?
Would Poland stop supporting NATO votes, decisions, and operations? Is the Polish government anti-west enough to secede from the EU or withdraw from NATO? Would Poland really do that knowing the looming Russian bear is next door?
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- May 15, 2022
Yes, as a matter of fact it does. As of right now, the Russian political strategy seems to be built around trying to drive a wedge between the "rabidly russophobic" Central European countries (mainly Poland and the Baltics) and the "more reasonable" western states with which some kind of deal could perhaps be struck. Russian propaganda messaging is structured around this concept. In this regard, the current Polish government is doing the Kremlin's work for them given that it's at loggerheads with pretty much every government west of the Polish border; Berlin in particular.
An isolated, unstable Poland is most certainly in Russia's interest. Russia generally likes isolated and unstable countries - it regards them as prey. Yes, there's the issue of US involvement but the Kremlin seems to believe that the upcoming US election will take care of this particular problem. Under Trump (who Russia dearly wants to win) the US troops will pack up and go home, and then Europe will become ripe for invasion.
I'm not saying that this calculus is correct, or even reasonable, but the Russian decisionmaking process is notoriously dysfunctional, so it's perhaps not a surprise they're thinking that, and planning for it.
That's a no on NATO, a yes on EU, and a yes on the Polish government being that blind to the looming threat.
Remember that Russia has announced an out-of-sequence Zapad exercise this year - without mentioning specific dates. I wouldn't be in the least surprised if this exercise "just happened to" coincide with the Polish election schedule.
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- Mar 9, 2023
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- Georgia, US
I appreciate the response. This is very disconcerting because it make Poland a potential flashpoint.
If Russia does "prey" on an unstable, weakened, and blind Poland, could Russia realistically manage conflicts in both UA and PL given the losses they have taken so far? I guess that is really a moot question anyways if they remain in NATO.
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- May 15, 2022
The threat of a Russian attack on Poland has hung in the air ever since this war began. It hangs there still. Remember the demands Russia tabled just before the outbreak of the war - these included a complete withdrawal of NATO forces from countries admitted after 1989 (which, obviously, includes Poland). There's no indication that Putin or his entourage have given up their plans to redraw the map of Europe in this manner, regardless of the scale of their losses in Ukraine.
As of right now Russia is not in a position to invade Poland with a ground army. This may change. The Russian Duma has just adopted another batch of mobilization laws tailored toward - as Kartapolov said - "a big war" (the current war in UA is not officially regarded by the Kremlin as "big" - or indeed as a "war" at all).
The main short-term threat to Poland currently involves (a) standoff missile attacks; (b) sabotage; (c) nuclear escalation; (d) Russian meddling in Polish politics. Actually, the same goes for other NATO member states. Russia probably doesn't want an outright war with NATO while it's heavily invested in Ukraine, but the Kremlin hawks are thinking ahead to a future where Russia dominates all of Europe - the way US dominates North America (yep; Mearsheimer is quite popular in Russian political circles...)
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- Oct 7, 2016
Might as well, Russia is meeting now with most of them. Russia is offering African Countries free grain so they can join Brics.
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