UA - RU - NATO | DISCUSSIONS

[DarkNoon]

For quite sometime now I firmly believe Putins only way to truly test NATO is to grab a small border town of just a handful of people of any NATO country. Then call NATO bluff.

Would NATO risk war with Russia over "little green men" seizing a town of zero significance or hardly any human presence?

To answer your question @Snowfall which I know is coming Putin can just as easily back off if NATO does call the bluff since he would use unmarked men/troops just as he did 2014 against Ukraine. He can easily disavow them and pull back.

But id assure you Putin would use unmarked men to be able to pull back/de-escalate *IF* NATO miraculously does somthing about him snatching a small bordertown of little significants where ever along NATOs border.

Likely wouldn't need or likly would not be a significant military buildup either. Wouldn't need one for such a provocation.

 

[teekay99]

First the question isn’t just would the U.S. risk nuclear war over Estonia, it’s also would Moscow risk nuclear war over Estonia.

I had thought of that. It's possible that Moscow does not think that is a concern given NATO's lackluster response to their gray-zone tactics thus far. There is a possibility that a nuclear response from the west does not factor into Russia's calculus for some reason. Maybe they think their rudimentary missile defense network will keep them safe. Maybe they don't care about an attack and believe they can weather one. Or they think NATO will not response nuclearly (is that a word?), or respond at all.

I'm really not defending Warfront's video. I posted it to drum up debate and conversation on the issue. It's an interesting take, and I like that you jumped right in with some strong counter points (something I was looking for to assuage my own concerns).

 

[Snowfall]

For quite sometime now I firmly believe Putins only way to truly test NATO is to grab a small border town of just a handful of people of any NATO country. Then call NATO bluff.

Would NATO risk war with Russia over "little green men" seizing a town of zero significance or hardly any human presence?

To answer your question @Snowfall which I know is coming Putin can just as easily back off if NATO does call the bluff since he would use unmarked men/troops just as he did 2014 against Ukraine. He can easily disavow them and pull back.

But id assure you Putin would use unmarked men to be able to pull back/de-escalate *IF* NATO miraculously does somthing about him snatching a small bordertown of little significants where ever along NATOs border.

Likely wouldn't need or likly would not be a significant military buildup either. Wouldn't need one for such a provocation.

I’m thinking the more likely option is to pay for and arm mercenaries in Estonia rather than actually send their own troops. I agree that if he does something it’s going to be something that has plausible deniability, which is the main reason I disagree with the video.

 

[Snowfall]

I had thought of that. It's possible that Moscow does not think that is a concern given NATO's lackluster response to their gray-zone tactics thus far. There is a possibility that a nuclear response from the west does not factor into Russia's calculus for some reason. Maybe they think their rudimentary missile defense network will keep them safe. Maybe they don't care about an attack and believe they can weather one. Or they think NATO will not response nuclearly (is that a word?), or respond at all.

I'm really not defending Warfront's video. I posted it to drum up debate and conversation on the issue. It's an interesting take, and I like that you jumped right in with some strong counter points (something I was looking for to assuage my own concerns).

There’s a big difference between some minor airspace violations and an invasion of a NATO country. There’s going to be some sort of Russian calculation that NATO will launch a military response, I could agree with darknoon that they will use plausible deniability so he can pull back if need be though.

 

[peterould]

I don't think there's any suggestion they crossed into Estonia is there? Rather, the concern was they would stop Estonians driving through that small bit of Russia?

 

[Snowfall]

I don't think there's any suggestion they crossed into Estonia is there? Rather, the concern was they would stop Estonians driving through that small bit of Russia?

This is correct. Sounds like they observed it yesterday and advised people to be cautious when driving though but people weren’t listening so they closed it. Doesn’t sounds like they actually tried to stop anyone, Estonia just didn’t want anyone to be put in that position. I imagine Russia patrols the area quite frequently what appears unusual is that they were standing across the road and could have tried to block it.

 

[Sentry]

This is correct. Sounds like they observed it yesterday and advised people to be cautious when driving though but people weren’t listening so they closed it. Doesn’t sounds like they actually tried to stop anyone, Estonia just didn’t want anyone to be put in that position. I imagine Russia patrols the area quite frequently what appears unusual is that they were standing across the road and could have tried to block it.

"On Friday, our patrols observed throughout the day that activity on the Russian side in the Saatse area was significantly more intense than usual. We saw various armed groups moving along the border and in its immediate vicinity. Based on their uniforms, they were definitely not border guards," Meelis Saarepuu, head of the border guard bureau at the PPA's South Prefecture, told Saturday's evening news show "Aktuaalne kaamara."
This area is patrolled by the border guards, not by the Russian Army.

 

[Snowfall]

"On Friday, our patrols observed throughout the day that activity on the Russian side in the Saatse area was significantly more intense than usual. We saw various armed groups moving along the border and in its immediate vicinity. Based on their uniforms, they were definitely not border guards," Meelis Saarepuu, head of the border guard bureau at the PPA's South Prefecture, told Saturday's evening news show "Aktuaalne kaamara."
This area is patrolled by the border guards, not by the Russian Army.

There were 7 people. All the article says is they were not border guards it doesn’t say that the national guard doesn’t patrol that area it just implies they acting in a way inconsistent with the norm.

 

[Sentry]

There were 7 people. All the article says is they were not border guards it doesn’t say that the national guard doesn’t patrol that area it just implies they acting in a way inconsistent with the norm.

There is a clear difference in border guard being present versus armed Russian military personnel being present on a road intended for Estonian citizens to transit.

 

[Onoya]

I don't think there's any suggestion they crossed into Estonia is there? Rather, the concern was they would stop Estonians driving through that small bit of Russia?

exact

 

[Snowfall]

️

View attachment 8084View attachment 8085

https://twitter.com/x/status/1977360219463156157

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Russia imposes moratorium on nullifying fuel damper payments from October until May,” citing a presidential decree and RIA.
Read More:

Russia imposes moratorium on nullifying fuel damper payments from October until May, RIA reports

Fuel damper payments are subsidies paid to oil refineries to compensate for potential losses from withholding fuel exports in favor of supplies to domestic market.

m.economictimes.com

Read More:

Путин ввел мораторий на обнуление топливного демпфера

Президент Владимир Путин подписал указ , согласно которому порог отклонения для выплаты топливного демпфера по бензину и дизельному топливу не будет учитываться с 1 октября до 1 мая. В документе ...

www.rbc.ru

This is actually a big deal, the Russian social contract basically is the Russian population allows the government to enact its foreign policy as long as it doesn’t interfere with their lives so this is a pretty big reversal.

 

[Snowfall]

Kremlin spokesman Peskov directly threatened Moldova today, stating the country is making a grave mistake and "suggesting" consequences will follow.

Worth mentioning the Chief of Staff of the Romanian Armed forces stated Romania will defend Moldova in case of a Russian attack.
Read More:

Moldova repeats mistakes of other by making Russia its antagonist — Kremlin

One country has already made such a mistake, "It did not bring any good to this one country," Dmitry Peskov said

tass.com

Romania’s Chief of Defence on Moldova: In an interview with Euronews România, Gen. Gheorghiță Vlad said Romania “will help with absolutely everything the Republic of Moldova in case of attack,” noting legal avenues for assistance and alignment with NATO. Digi24 summarized the same remarks..
Read More:

EuronewsRO

Euronews România: știri locale, naționale și internaționale în limba română. Branded affiliate Euronews. #AllViews

www.euronews.ro

Unless they planning on building a bridge over the Black Sea I don’t know how they would intend to physically attack Moldova. Yes I know transnitria exists I stand by my statement.

 

[DarkNoon]

Unless they planning on building a bridge over the Black Sea I don’t know how they would intend to physically attack Moldova. Yes I know transnitria exists I stand by my statement.

I have been monitoring Transnistria (because of course I am, no one can sneeze without me knowing) but they are about to collapse. Give me a moment to gather all the sources I have posted over the months regarding Transnistria.

Long story short. Economic collapse is imminent, also Russia cut gas to Transnistria, and Moldova may move in to finnaly seize and absorb it into Moldova once and for all.

Edit:

️️
Russia cut gas to Transnistria (triggering crisis)
AP: Gazprom said it would halt gas to Moldova starting Jan 1, 2025, cutting off Transnistria’s lifeline.

Russia's Gazprom says it will halt gas supplies to Moldova starting Jan. 1

Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom says it will halt gas supplies to Moldova starting on Jan. 1, citing alleged unpaid debt by the east European country.

apnews.com

Reuters: Follow-on coverage of the cut and the restructuring fight with Gazprom this summer.

Russia's Gazprom denounces Moldova move to alter gas supply system

Russian gas giant Gazprom on Thursday denounced a move by Moldova's gas authority to withdraw the licence from its local subsidiary for distributing gas, saying the move damaged its affiliate and jeopardised Moldova's energy security.

www.reuters.com

Europa Liberă Moldova (RO):

Gazprom oprește livrările de gaze către R. Moldova. Chișinăul: Rusia folosește energia ca armă politică. Replica Moscovei

Concernul rus Gazprom a anunțat că, începând cu 1 ianuarie 2025, ora Moscovei 08:00, va sista complet livrările de gaze naturale către Republica Moldova, invocând „neachitarea sistematică a datoriilor” de către compania-fiică Moldovagaz și „abateri esențiale de la prevederile contractuale”.

romania.europalibera.org

RBC (RU): Confirms supplies to Transnistria/Moldova stopped Jan 1 due to end of Ukraine transit + Gazprom–Moldovagaz dispute.

Приднестровье согласилось на поставку газа из Молдавии

«Тираспольтрансгаз» уведомил «Молдовагаз» о согласии на поставки газа в Приднестровье, сообщил Красносельский. Они прекратились, после того как Украина отказалась от транзита российского топлива в Европу

www.rbc.ru

️️
Economic/freefall indicators in Transnistria:
bne IntelliNews: “Transnistria faces deepening budget crisis after Russia cuts gas,” noting new emergency amendments and widening shortfall.

Moldova's separatist Transnistria faces deepening budget crisis after Russia cuts gas supplies

The Supreme Council of Transnistria, Moldova’s separatist region, adopted amendments aimed at mitigating the impact of reduced Russian gas ...

www.intellinews.com

Moldova1 public broadcaster (EN): “Regime admits the region’s economy [is] hit hard… severe economic collapse.”

Tiraspol regime admits transnistrian region's economy hit hard by energy crisis and staff exodus

The energy crisis continues to be the primary challenge facing the industrial sector in the Transnistrian region. This was stated by the self-proclaimed Minister of Economic Development, Serghei Obolonik, during a meeting that involved more than 30 leaders from local enterprises.

moldova1.md

Clingendael Institute (PDF): “Unfreezing Transnistria?” details January gas stop and structural vulnerability.

https://www.clingendael.org/sites/default/files/2025-03/CA_Unfreezing_Transnistria.pdf

Financial Times: On Sheriff’s dominance and the worst economic crisis in Transnistria’s history (industrial output halved; emergency regime).

The secretive corporate empire that captured a breakaway state

Sheriff dominates the economy of Transnistria and its pro-Russian government, but the war in Ukraine has thrown its future into doubt

www.ft.com

 

[Snowfall]

I have been monitoring Transnistria (because of course I am, no one can sneeze without me knowing) but they are about to collapse. Give me a moment to gather all the sources I have posted over the months regarding Transnistria.

Long story short. Economic collapse is imminent, also Russia cut gas to Transnistria, and Moldova may move in to finnaly seize and absorb it into Moldova once and for all.

Edit:

Yeah Ive seen bits and pieces of what’s been happening. I’ve always had the assumption if Russia takes Ukraine Moldova will be next on the chopping block so I can’t say I’d blame them for making a move on Transnistria when they have the chance.

 

[Onoya]

Trump negotiating...

Trump warns Russia he may send Ukraine long-range Tomahawks if Moscow doesn't settle war soon

President Donald Trump is warning Russia that he may send Ukraine long-range Tomahawk missiles if Moscow doesn't settle its war there soon.

apnews.com

Trump warns Russia he may send Ukraine long-range Tomahawks if Moscow doesn’t settle war soon​

President Donald Trump on Sunday warned Russia that he may send Ukraine long-range Tomahawk missiles if Moscow doesn’t settle its war there soon — suggesting that he could be ready to increase the pressure on Vladimir Putin’s government using a key weapons system.

“I might say, ’Look: if this war is not going to get settled, I’m going to send them Tomahawks,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One as he flew to Israel.

Haven't Trump already confirmed he was sending Tomahawks?

 

[Snowfall]

Haven't Trump already confirmed he was sending Tomahawks?

No he said he thinks he had a decision but he needed more information.

 

[Spyglass]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1977508760668278819

Hmmm…