Ukraine April 2021

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Obreid

Power Poster
And how popular is any Ukraine action going to be is massive number of bodies start coming home. Putin is already having popularity problems.
Not wanting to add to any panic simply an observation or two.

1 It is a very perverse yet practical step to take. Russians think different than the west.
2 It could be a Stunt to stress Russia’s commitment level in opposing NATO advances (PR). Or a copywriter who just sees a sensational story.

I still maintain Russians view Ukraine not just as their back yard. Ukraine has been a geographical buffer zone for Russia for centuries Because both of the geography and the climate. Even with modern armies we still have to take the seasonal weather into consideration.
As well it being part of the USSR for 60yr.
There is a lot of bad blood on the Russian side regarding the alleged promise that NATO would not expand into the Eastern European countries.
That’s a real thing, even Gorbachev speaks of it.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
And how popular is any Ukraine action going to be is massive number of bodies start coming home. Putin is already having popularity problems.
Not wanting to add to any panic simply an observation or two.

1 It is a very perverse yet practical step to take. Russians think different than the west. During the battle of Stalingrad up to 30000 soviet troops were buried in a mass grave. It smacks of touching on historical memory.
2 It could be a Stunt to stress Russia’s commitment level in opposing NATO advances (PR). Or a copywriter who just wants press time.

I still maintain Russians view Ukraine not just as there back yard. Ukraine has been a geographical buffer zone for Russia for centuries. Both the geography and the climate. Even with modern armies we still have to take the seasonal weather into consideration.
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
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It is a very perverse yet practical step to take. Russians think different than the west. During the battle of Stalingrad up to 30000 soviet troops were buried in a mass grave. It smacks of touching on historical memory.
Yeah, but Stalingrad was Russian. I don't know if regular Russians consider Crimea to be "Russian enough" to be worth mass graves of their own children.

Of course, this has to be all propaganda. No way Russia will suffer those kind of casualties. Unless they are gearing up for a different war.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
Yeah, but Stalingrad was Russian. I don't know if regular Russians consider Crimea to be "Russian enough" to be worth mass graves of their own children.

Of course, this has to be all propaganda. No way Russia will suffer those kind of casualties. Unless they are gearing up for a different war.
True, I realize it could be propaganda from either side. My main point russia I believe views Ukraine as a buffer. Historically both France and Germany suffered and failed impart because of that buffer. They will view permanent military presence and bases as a full stop.
just my opinion and this doesn’t really come into play in current build up unless we see nato membership or significant foreign troops on the ground there. Which we probably won’t as most of us agree.
it’s more of a line in the sand and I hope our leaders realize that.
 

ChinPower

Member
I find this whole "action" quite strange. I first checked the web site for the actual information. It is accurate, however one thing stand out: Cherepovets is another 500 kilometers further north from Ukraine than Moscow (and it makes little sense to use it for a graveyard due to distance from the Ukrainian border, not there are any significant military deployments around). I did some research and only a couple of other Russian cities have made this "action", including Ekaterinburg - 2300 kilometers from Ukraine, and Sahalin - 9700 kilometers from Ukraine. Which makes even less sense. After further check I found that these "preparations" are a regular routine process for every city: state "civil guard" commissions do regular check ups and if they find any violations an order will be issued. In case of Cherepovets, it is very likely that on a routine check up this commission found that the city has no plans "in case of war" and made an order to correct this.

As for the whole action: a defence of Crimea will be largely supported, a defence of Donetsk and Lugansk will be largely supported (only a slightly less than Crimea). Any kind of offensive action deeper into Ukraine will be largely unsupported. Russians does not connect war losses with the government. Since the first presidential election we had several wars including one that was "lost" - the first Chechen war. None of them significantly affected ratings in a negative way. Russians tend to judge wars by what is "fair" and "not fair" or "justified" and "not justified". Any sort of defensive war is by default "fair" and "justified", even more so if ethnical Russians (or sibling nationals) are attacked. Any sort of offensive war is unfair and unjustified.
 

Silent

Power Poster
Moscow warns the US to stay away from Russia and Crimea as we see troop buildup in eastern Ukraine. Beijing warns the US not to get involved with Taiwan as China sends military aircraft into Taiwanese airspace. It's almost as if they're coordinating — or at least mirroring

#Russia|n Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov this morning: #Moscow defends and will continue to defend residents of #Donbas: Moscow warns #US that it is better for them to stay away from Russia and #Crimea, the risks of incidents are very high

BREAKING — “Russian military forces at the Ukrainian border have to withdraw”, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg says

#BREAKING Russia accuses US, NATO of turning Ukraine into 'powder keg'

 

Drumboy44

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Russian Defense Minister Shoigu: two armies and three airborne divisions were deployed to the western borders of Russia to carry out combat training tasks as part of a combat readiness test. All combat readiness checks activities are scheduled to be completed within 2 weeks


We shall wait and see.
 
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DarkNoon

Power Poster
Blah blah blah. Can't wait for Russia to just take Ukraine and this all be said and done. Seeing this thread always at the top of forums makes me not wana come here.

Nothing, will, ever, happen, period. Other than Russia getting what it wants and the poor people of Ukraine just keep suffering. Blah blah blah im checking out of this.
 

Silent

Power Poster
Blah blah blah. Can't wait for Russia to just take Ukraine and this all be said and done. Seeing this thread always at the top of forums makes me not wana come here.

Nothing, will, ever, happen, period. Other than Russia getting what it wants and the poor people of Ukraine just keep suffering. Blah blah blah im checking out of this.
checking out and dream on. Blah, blah, blah, period.
 

Silent

Power Poster

Russia urges Turkey, others to stop supplying arms to Ukraine​

BY GERMAN PRESS AGENCY - DPA​


Russia warned several countries, including Turkey, to stop supplying weapons to Kyiv, as tensions have escalated in eastern Ukraine.

"We urge all responsible countries that we communicate with – and Turkey is one of them – that we strongly recommend they analyze the situation and the Kyiv regime's constant belligerent statements, and we also warn them against encouraging these militaristic aspirations," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was quoted as saying Monday in Egypt by the Itar-TASS news agency.

 

CreepyMonkey

Active member
Blah blah blah. Can't wait for Russia to just take Ukraine and this all be said and done. Seeing this thread always at the top of forums makes me not wana come here.

Nothing, will, ever, happen, period. Other than Russia getting what it wants and the poor people of Ukraine just keep suffering. Blah blah blah im checking out of this.
I get it. A lot of this kind of thing can induce alert fatigue. I suggest just checking the board a few times a day or just less often than you currently do. Hopefully that will help.
 

Drumboy44

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
Whitehouse Readout of President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. Call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia

APRIL 13, 2021

President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. spoke today with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. They discussed a number of regional and global issues, including the intent of the United States and Russia to pursue a strategic stability dialogue on a range of arms control and emerging security issues, building on the extension of the New START Treaty. President Biden also made clear that the United States will act firmly in defense of its national interests in response to Russia’s actions, such as cyber intrusions and election interference. President Biden emphasized the United States’ unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The President voiced our concerns over the sudden Russian military build-up in occupied Crimea and on Ukraine’s borders, and called on Russia to de-escalate tensions.

President Biden reaffirmed his goal of building a stable and predictable relationship with Russia consistent with U.S. interests, and proposed a summit meeting in a third country in the coming months to discuss the full range of issues facing the United States and Russia.

 

ChinPower

Member
Link does not work or is just me?

On a side note, I hope those calls are a sign of de-escalation. Here on this side of the conflict I see reports of Ukrainian Army continue preparations for an offence. And I see reports of continued Russian forces build up with the key intent of "defence of Donetsk and Lugansk", no signs or any talks, even theoretical, about potential offense from Russia even under pretext of "preemptive defence strike".

My conclusion:
1. No action from the Russian side will happen unless we'll see a major Ukrainian offence on Donetsk/Lugansk. (Remember that Russian force deployment began after Ukrainian force deployment, not vice verca)
2. Biden call can be both a political maneuver to show that "we've tried to talk sense in to them" before the actual offence will begin OR a leverage point in upcoming talks for something else. I sincerely hope it's the second option.
 
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