Ukraine April 2021

Status
Not open for further replies.

Silent

Power Poster
Link does not work or is just me?

On a side note, I hope those calls are a sign of de-escalation. Here on this side of the conflict I see reports of Ukrainian Army continue preparations for an offence. And I see reports of continued Russian forces build up with the key intent of "defence of Donetsk and Lugansk", no signs or any talks, even theoretical, about potential offense from Russia even under pretext of "preemptive defence strike".

My conclusion:
1. No action from the Russian side will happen unless we'll see a major Ukrainian offence on Donetsk/Lugansk. (Remember that Russian force deployment began after Ukrainian force deployment, not vice verca)
2. Biden call can be both a political maneuver to show that "we've tried to talk sense in to them" before the actual offence will begin OR a leverage point in upcoming talks for something else. I sincerely hope it's the second option.

You are right, the article has disappeared!?​

 

Silent

Power Poster

Russian troops on Ukraine border ‘ready to defend country’ in event of war says Moscow’s Defense Minister, warning of NATO buildup​


/
Two detachments of the Russian Army, along with three airborne units, are ready and waiting in the event conflict with the West escalates into full-blown fighting, Moscow said on Tuesday after a surprise inspection of troops.
After paying a visit to the soldiers, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu told journalists that the personnel met the standards required for the situation. “The troops have shown full readiness and ability to fulfill the tasks of ensuring the country’s military security,” he said. “Currently, these associations and formations are engaged in drills and exercises.”
Shoigu said that the redeployments had taken place “in response to the military activity of the alliance that threatens Russia.” The move comes amid escalating tension with the US-led NATO bloc and after bloody fighting in eastern Ukraine between Kiev’s forces and two breakaway republics.


 

Obreid

Power Poster
So the last 36 hours of Russian statements are either
1 they are seeing movements of Ukrainian forces and actions and are wanting to be clear they won’t tolerate it.
or
They are speaking for domestic audiences. I’ve watched my own country do this so it’s believable.

Their claims of western Supplys and aid coming into Ukraine seem to be proven true if only by observations made here about military transport flights inbound to Ukraine.
I don’t believe there has been any press on what is only those flights.
maybe the administration is sending military support.
id read recently Biden was opposed to Obama only sending non-leathal aid.
maybe Decon admin is correct and Biden is more of a neocon than supposed.
 
N

NovicePrepper

Guest
So the last 36 hours of Russian statements are either
1 they are seeing movements of Ukrainian forces and actions and are wanting to be clear they won’t tolerate it.
or
They are speaking for domestic audiences. I’ve watched my own country do this so it’s believable.

Their claims of western Supplys and aid coming into Ukraine seem to be proven true if only by observations made here about military transport flights inbound to Ukraine.
I don’t believe there has been any press on what is only those flights.
maybe the administration is sending military support.
id read recently Biden was opposed to Obama only sending non-leathal aid.
maybe Decon admin is correct and Biden is more of a neocon than supposed.
Biden has definitely been a bit more of a "Warmonger" for lack of a better term than Obama ever was. What I mean is he's definitely been a bit more confrontational in the past regarding hostile actions taken against America and Americans. Remember his initial reaction to Benghazi? Wasn't he all for a retaliatory strike or something? Said we were gonna take them out or something? And then the administration had to pull him back and tell him that that wasn't the route that they were taking, and he then issued some sort of retraction and changed his tone about the whole thing? It was like 8 1/2 years ago so I might be off on some facts.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
Well that might have talked about Putin drumming up support for war. But it was delivered with its own set of war drums as well.
Triumphalism is alive and well at the WaPo.? They could have edited it down to one sentence. “Putin is a killer”
It was a one sided, single dimensional evaluation of a complex situation involving millions of people several cultures competing economic centers and hundreds of years of history.

Yes Putin has probably killed to get what he wants. Maybe in Russia they have the Putin “bodycount” why not we have the Clinton “bodycount”. Is he dangerous you bet good lord how could you not be president of Russia and not be dangerous. All leaders have to be dangerous to one degree or another.
I suppose it just boils down in responding to the Post. Would he start a war to divert domestic attention away from his failures. Well how would a US President respond to a military alliance between Russia and Mexico?
That’s what I thought.
my post not directed to riff raff but to the premise of the WaPo editorial.
 

MichaelH

Member
The WaPo editorial has returned. Lots of trial balloons about the devastating impact of economic exclusion and such.
Well that might have talked about Putin drumming up support for war. But it was delivered with its own set of war drums as well.
Triumphalism is alive and well at the WaPo.? They could have edited it down to one sentence. “Putin is a killer”
It was a one sided, single dimensional evaluation of a complex situation involving millions of people several cultures competing economic centers and hundreds of years of history.

Yes Putin has probably killed to get what he wants. Maybe in Russia they have the Putin “bodycount” why not we have the Clinton “bodycount”. Is he dangerous you bet good lord how could you not be president of Russia and not be dangerous. All leaders have to be dangerous to one degree or another.
I suppose it just boils down in responding to the Post. Would he start a war to divert domestic attention away from his failures. Well how would a US President respond to a military alliance between Russia and Mexico?
That’s what I thought.
my post not directed to riff raff but to the premise of the WaPo editorial.
I also thought that was interesting. It's really aggressive rhetoric, but it is very pointed in not actually saying "Putin wants to take Ukraine, and we should stand in between and physically stop him from doing so". It's one of these interesting cases where you say someone is so horrible that decent people really can't do business with him, but once we pass a resolution and impose "universal condemnation" that same person will somehow be deterred.
 
M

Mooclear

Guest
Well that might have talked about Putin drumming up support for war. But it was delivered with its own set of war drums as well.
Triumphalism is alive and well at the WaPo.? They could have edited it down to one sentence. “Putin is a killer”
It was a one sided, single dimensional evaluation of a complex situation involving millions of people several cultures competing economic centers and hundreds of years of history.

Yes Putin has probably killed to get what he wants. Maybe in Russia they have the Putin “bodycount” why not we have the Clinton “bodycount”. Is he dangerous you bet good lord how could you not be president of Russia and not be dangerous. All leaders have to be dangerous to one degree or another.
I suppose it just boils down in responding to the Post. Would he start a war to divert domestic attention away from his failures. Well how would a US President respond to a military alliance between Russia and Mexico?
That’s what I thought.
my post not directed to riff raff but to the premise of the WaPo editorial.
You also forget about that civilian who died after picking up the 'Ode De Novachaek' perfume bottle. If you are gonna put a little dagger in your cloak and dagger best not be sloppy. Especially since the intended target survived. Fuck Putin for that.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
You also forget about that civilian who died after picking up the 'Ode De Novachaek' perfume bottle. If you are gonna put a little dagger in your cloak and dagger best not be sloppy. Especially since the intended target survived. Fuck Putin for that.
No I haven’t forgotten he’s a snake but he’s Russia’s snake. Only making the point that it’s a tough world out there. Corporations, criminals and nations or leaders of nations do all kinds of things to get or maintain the upper hand.

Ukrainians should be able to choose their own way. But my nation carried out all kinds of deceptive acts to over throw the Russian backed gov. My nations diplomats were dropping cocktail chat at the time maybe preemptive nuclear strike on Russia might work.

Im just practical. I’ve seen ordinary people do all kinds of deceitful things for very little gain inflicting much hurt.

I simply maintain my nation should do what is in our best interest while minimizing the chance of death and loss to those of other nations and would hope others would as well. But that’s not the way of it is it.

I/we in america can’t change Putin but we can act in a way that doesn’t provoke him to do terrible things. But even that is still no guarantee.
He’s the leader of Russia if the people of Russia no longer wish that to be then they need to do something about it.

War will come or it won’t most all the regulars here are sanguine with that reality.
Were all just peasants living on the lords land anyway. We just make the effort to watch and maybe warn each other.
 

Obreid

Power Poster
The WaPo editorial has returned. Lots of trial balloons about the devastating impact of economic exclusion and such.

I also thought that was interesting. It's really aggressive rhetoric, but it is very pointed in not actually saying "Putin wants to take Ukraine, and we should stand in between and physically stop him from doing so". It's one of these interesting cases where you say someone is so horrible that decent people really can't do business with him, but once we pass a resolution and impose "universal condemnation" that same person will somehow be deterred.
It’s kinda like climate change accords. Everyone runs around like Henny Penny the sky is falling. Then they all pose for pictures sign accords promising to fix the sky, congratulate themselves. Then hop on their planes to fly home with no intention of meeting any of the commitments they made.
 

Drumboy44

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
The deployment of full Russian troops on the border with Ukraine may end on April 20. According to Ukrainian intelligence, the total number of troops should increase to 110,000.

This was announced by the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Colonel Kyrylo Budanov during a meeting of the parliamentary committee on national security, defense and intelligence.

"After the deployment is completed, their total number may be 56 battalion tactical groups. Conditionally, we expect the completion of the full deployment on the 20th. That is, everyone will arrive on April 20," Budanov said.

According to him, the main areas of concentration of Russian troops are in the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea, at the two Opuk and Angarsky ranges, and at the Klintsy and Pogonovo military ranges in Bryansk and Voroga.

 

Drumboy44

DEFCON Staff
Staff member
why are we still at defcon 5

We have a thread for this such discussion. 👇


Please try to make your posts & express your concerns or feelings in the proper thread.
 
Last edited:

bartok

Member
I am confused. It seems that Russia is setting-up enought forces in order to make an huge offensive. At the same time, it seems that it is unwilling to walk the walk. I know that is the basic of military the fact to make in the ennemy such kind of doubts, but it is even true that my knowledge of this facts is very partial and affected by my own hopes.

I think that if Russia will do nothing after such forces deployment, it will lose any credibility and, at the same time, the situation in Ukraine will be not solved and it is likely to get more disadvantageous for Russia. But, i Russia wants to intevene, why it procratinates?

IWhat is the opinion of Defcon Warning System about that? The level 5, in my opinion is corrrect, even in case of war in Ukraine, but I am searching the opinion of more informed people than me.
 

DEFCON Warning System

Director
Staff member
It seems that Russia is setting-up enought forces in order to make an huge offensive. At the same time, it seems that it is unwilling to walk the walk.
It's more efficient to scare the enemy into doing what you want then going in and forcing the issue, especially since Russia will face more sanctions if they actually move in. Hence why they are posturing rather than rolling in.

Also, it is a signal to NATO to keep out, otherwise they will face a rather large Russian force. And NATO has no interest in militarily defending Ukraine at this point. They know Crimea is lost. They ain't getting it back. So what is the point of bloodshed?

So there are multiple reasons why Russia is mounting this force but not doing anything with it at the moment.

Will they? If Ukraine does, Russia has to respond. But if Ukraine just blusters, the Mission Accomplished as far as Russia is concerned.
 

rudemarine

Power Poster
I am confused. It seems that Russia is setting-up enought forces in order to make an huge offensive. At the same time, it seems that it is unwilling to walk the walk. I know that is the basic of military the fact to make in the ennemy such kind of doubts, but it is even true that my knowledge of this facts is very partial and affected by my own hopes.

I think that if Russia will do nothing after such forces deployment, it will lose any credibility and, at the same time, the situation in Ukraine will be not solved and it is likely to get more disadvantageous for Russia. But, i Russia wants to intevene, why it procratinates?

IWhat is the opinion of Defcon Warning System about that? The level 5, in my opinion is corrrect, even in case of war in Ukraine, but I am searching the opinion of more informed people than me.

Putin is pissed that Ukraine cut off all the water to Crimea and they have no short term solutions other than to go turn on the taps themselves. He lost all credibility with Armenia.

Biden and the head of Nato talking tough to Putin like they plan on doing something militarily will only end up freaking out or emboldening his hard line base. The Russians have always been a paranoid bunch.

Putin knows Biden isn't controlling anything and I'm sure Putin is a little worried who is telling him what to do. I know it's Obama and Hitlery.

Putin must be stopped. He is a lunatic. I thought he was a lot smarter and that he actually had morals. I figured he was just bluff with his 100 Megaton nuclear torpedo that nobody can save from going into meltdown. Having a drone running around with a nuclear reactor and the most powerful weapon ever created inside is just insanity. I think Trump would have given orders to sink it at the first possible opportunity.

A lot of Russian sailors have died because they had to go manually lower the reactor control rods. True heros to mankind!
 
M

Mooclear

Guest
It's more efficient to scare the enemy into doing what you want then going in and forcing the issue, especially since Russia will face more sanctions if they actually move in. Hence why they are posturing rather than rolling in.

Also, it is a signal to NATO to keep out, otherwise they will face a rather large Russian force. And NATO has no interest in militarily defending Ukraine at this point. They know Crimea is lost. They ain't getting it back. So what is the point of bloodshed?

So there are multiple reasons why Russia is mounting this force but not doing anything with it at the moment.

Will they? If Ukraine does, Russia has to respond. But if Ukraine just blusters, the Mission Accomplished as far as Russia is concerned.
Unless the sanctions actually have like serious bite (for once) and the Russian Federation gets removed from SWIFT. They wouldn't like that much. You think they'd react militarily/asymmetrical to that?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top